Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

+45

A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.

Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.

Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.

Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)

Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago

IN THE EYE OF THE STORM (nanamac)

Sheets of rain & darkness!

()

Storm damage (Bubbly)

Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa

Categories: Hurricane Heat

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51. scottsvb 4:47 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting scottsvb: Ernesto is pretty much a open trough of low pressure with a vortex of 1007mbs around 15.1 N. He will start slowing down some tonight and Monday. This will finally give him time to develop more into Monday night and Tuesday. Dry air is getting squeezed out in the NW carribean and shouldn't be a factor in 24hrs. Ernesto's fast forward speed was the major problem with this becoming a strong TS or Hurricane in the Carribean, thus is created a tilt in the LLC 850MB center and the MLC. Finally his speed maxed at 23mph early this morning and he ran into the dry air. Now he's a vortex a trough extending south from there. Now the future... expect him to organize more as he slows down. The more he organizes..the more WNW or NW he will go. Right now I expect him to become a Tropical Storm (cause I think they will make this a depression or open wave at 5pm) on Tuesday. His path should take him from Belieze-Costa Maya Mx by Weds. There is a trough in the northern GOM by then..it will amplify by later next weekend digging down through most of the GOM and east of 90W. I don't want to go past 3 days in the landfal of Ernesto..but.. the question will be.. if he gets strong enough before Belieze-MX he will make it to the BOC and head slowly WNW and make landfall south of Tampico MX later this week (Friday-Sat)..but if he stays a weak TS and moves inland...alot of moisture in the midlevels will stay behind and could regenerate later this week in the NW Carribean and head north into the GOM and we could find another TS by next weekend. Only time will tell.. Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1188

52. washingtonian115 4:47 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: No. No. No. No. JFV=Very happy. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11184

53. GeorgiaStormz 4:47 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525

54. wxchaser97 4:48 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Gordon, Helene, and pre-Isaac Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 92 Comments: 7015

55. mcluvincane 4:48 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Gfs wow Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

56. LargoFl 4:49 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz: ..............does the GFS actually put it INTO florida? Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

57. wunderkidcayman 4:49 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Grand Cayman is under a Tropical Storm Watch rain bands are expected to impact us as early as this afternoon Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

58. washingtonian115 4:49 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97: Gordon, Helene, and pre-Isaac Isaac is that you!?!.Been wait'in. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11184

59. CaribBoy 4:49 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Don't forget this frame. Looking more and more like an Earl Track. Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2965

60. Terradad 4:49 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
So now that Ernesto is no longer a threat to the GOM, will gas prices start to come down next week? Member Since: December 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 73

61. 7544 4:49 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane: Gfs wow hmmm how strong is that a cat 2 Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6020

62. Msdrown 4:49 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting tennisgirl08: From the 1916 hurricane season: Slight strengthening before landfall in Yucatan. Re-emerged in BOC - then headed north and dramatically strengthened in the GOMEX. This storm was notable for its very fast movement through the Caribbean - much like Ernesto. Just something to ponder. I guess that means don't count your chickens yet? Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

63. allancalderini 4:49 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: I'm not sure.I don't really keep tabs on the south pacific like that XD.Sorry. Thanks anyway :) Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2240

64. robert88 4:50 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Ernesto is headed for Honduras...shows about over folks. The last 2 frames it's heading SW. Link Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 877

65. cg2916 4:50 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97: Gordon, Helene, and pre-Isaac Make it stop! Please, make it stop! Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2954

66. Hurricanes101 4:50 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: ..............does the GFS actually put it INTO florida? no, has it just north of the Bahamas at the end of the run, steering looks fairly weak at that point too Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

67. mcluvincane 4:50 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: ..............does the GFS actually put it INTO florida? Looks like a carolina storm to me Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

68. wxchaser97 4:50 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Florence Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 92 Comments: 7015

69. gordydunnot 4:50 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Flowjo is going to run into some serious shear in a couple of days. I guess in a week or so it's to be out of the way for Gordon. Looking at the 200mb chart in motion that Skypony posted earlier it is truly amazing how fast changing and dynamic the upper atmosphere is. I'll never look at a static wind shear chart the same way again. Seems to me from the motion it's next to impossible to predict shear very far in advance. Not only is it increasing up or down, but there is a constant movement of these areas around each other. Looks like 3D chess. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

70. LargoFl 4:50 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS EXTENDED THE * FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN... EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...UNF...TALBOT ISLAND...MAYPORT... JACKSONVILLE BEACH... EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FERNANDINA BEACH... NORTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PONTE VEDRA BEACH...PALM VALLEY... GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...ST. MARYS... * UNTIL 745 PM EDT * RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUES IN JACKSONVILLE BEACH...ALONG 3RD STREET FROM 6TH AVENUE NORTH TO 14TH AVENUE NORTH...AND ALONG SOUTH BEACH PARKWAY. WATER IS ENTERING SOME BUILDINGS IN LOW LYING AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. && LAT...LON 2995 8149 3072 8161 3070 8142 3051 8144 3049 8141 3023 8137 2995 8130 $$ Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

71. allancalderini 4:51 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97: Gordon, Helene, and pre-Isaac If it went to verify that would be 5 name storms for August.Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene and Isaac. Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2240

72. LostTomorrows 4:51 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Both cyclones look horrible right now, but at least Florence still looks like one. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 533

73. GTcooliebai 4:51 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting robert88: Ernesto is headed for Honduras...shows about over folks. The last 2 frames it's heading SW. Link Crazy because the HWRF was actually showing that 2 nights ago and I thought the model went haywire. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5455

74. GeorgiaStormz 4:51 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: ..............does the GFS actually put it INTO florida? eventually it practically would have to with those isobars but it runs out of time,,its a long way off, a lot can change, as of now it goes to the carolinas ga or fl Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525

75. LargoFl 4:52 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane: Looks like a carolina storm to me ..whew thanks Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

76. allancalderini 4:53 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting robert88: Ernesto is headed for Honduras...shows about over folks. The last 2 frames it's heading SW. Link My country at least will get drought relief from Ernesto.maybe ts warnings later on.haven`t seen a direct landfall since Paula 2010 and before her maybe Gamma in 2005 most of them or go north of us or make landfall in Nicaragua. Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2240

77. hydrus 4:53 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
borrowed this from the link Skyepony provided. Excellent Link. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14682

78. AllStar17 4:53 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai: Crazy because the HWRF was actually showing that 2 nights ago and I thought the model went haywire. Ernesto is NOT moving SW. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

79. GeorgiaStormz 4:53 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525

80. mcluvincane 4:53 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting LostTomorrows: Both cyclones look horrible right now, but at least Florence still looks like one. Yeah, stick. Fork in em, Gordon and Issac look like the real players Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

82. LargoFl 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
.....................................wow alot of lightning and boomers over my house right now Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

84. hydrus 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14682

85. Tazmanian 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
poor Bahamas Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111615

86. trHUrrIXC5MMX 4:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97: how close does Gordon gets to NYC? can you put up a pic about it? Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 38 Comments: 8506

87. LargoFl 4:55 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

88. GeorgiaStormz 4:55 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane: Yeah, stick. Fork in em, Gordon and Issac look like the real players we dont know yet...they might change a ton or have problems developing, you never know Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525

89. CybrTeddy 4:56 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
A few frames of movement is not a motion or a guarantee of direction. Could be the CoC being pushed around for all we know by the convection. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

90. tornadodude 4:56 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting mcluvincane: Looks like a carolina storm to me Irene part 2? Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

91. LargoFl 4:56 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

93. GTcooliebai 4:57 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting LargoFl: .....................................wow alot of lightning and boomers over my house right now It's right over me and dark outside. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5455

95. LargoFl 4:58 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai: It's right over me and dark outside. ..yeah its dangerous outside..really booming and the lightning whew Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

96. GeorgiaStormz 4:59 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX: how close does Gordon gets to NYC? can you put up a pic about it? twas the end of the run....but would have to do a lot of unnecessary northward ramming to get to NYC but this run is so far out it might get anywhere on the E US...if it materializes. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7525

97. wunderkidcayman 4:59 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
ernesto is not moving SW Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

98. LargoFl 4:59 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting spleenstomper: Good morning! So it looks like I WILLbe going on my Grand Isle, La fishing trip starting on Wrdnesday. ..so far it looks ok..but stay tuned Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22511

99. mcluvincane 4:59 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting tornadodude: Irene part 2? Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Hazel part 2 Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

100. CybrTeddy 5:00 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
The 12z GFS is a good example of bad timing on the troughs part, doesn't show a trough being able to pick up said system until it where to reach the Bahamas and by then it would probably be too late. However, do not put stalk in this run, do not put a single bit of credibility in it for future track as it could go anywhere. The last run was OTS. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

101. wxchaser97 5:00 PM GMT on August 05, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX: how close does Gordon gets to NYC? can you put up a pic about it? Right now since Gordon hasn't formed yet I can't make any educated guess on track. But going by the GFS anyone in FL to the Carolinas are at risk of a landfall. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 92 Comments: 7015

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