Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan
Ernesto strengthened to a category 1 hurricane this afternoon after the morning hurricane hunter mission found winds of 80 mph, which is unusual for a hurricane without an eye wall. The hunters also found a minimum central pressure of 984 mb, which has dropped since this morning. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to reach the center of the hurricane around 8pm EDT. The rain bands from Ernesto have reached the coast of Belize and Mexico as it continues to move west along the coast of Honduras, and landfall is expected north of the the Belize/Mexico border tonight around midnight. The Yucatan Basin buoy is now reporting gusts up to 53 mph, with sustained winds around 40 mph and 19 foot waves. These gusts are about 10 mph stronger than this morning's readings. Weather stations along the coast of Mexico and Belize aren't reporting winds stronger than 10 mph, however, they are expected to pick up around 8 or 9pm EDT tonight. The island of Roatan in Honduras is experiencing winds around 15 mph this afternoon, along with some light to moderate rainfall. Honduras seems to be the most impacted country so far, although they have avoided issuing evacuations. Nicaragua, however, has evacuated 1,500 people as of last night, and Mexico's authorities have evacuated around 600 residents from Punta Allen, which is a fishing village between Cozumel and Chetumal.
Visible satellite imagery suggests Ernesto still has the potential to develop an eye wall before landfall, as strong, organized thunderstorms are present in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Infrared satellite imagery shows the clockwise circulation at high levels (the upper level anti-cyclone) which will help ventilate the hurricane and could support further enhancement. If Ernesto wasn't approaching landfall, it would likely continue to strengthen and could have even experienced a period of rapid intensification, given the heat content of the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear around the hurricane remains low at 5-10 knots.
Figure 1. Radar image from Belize as the outer rain bands of Ernesto approach. This image was captured at 2:30pm EDT.
Figure 2. IR satellite imagery of Hurricane Ernesto captured at 4:15pm EDT.
Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.
Figure 3. Webcam image from Caye Walker Village in Belize.
Angela
Reader Comments
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This can't be good......
that's also when they started naming subtropical cyclones
Not sure I've ever heard of a hot tower core...lol. That would be the eye.
bogeyman
So beat me with a wet noodle
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2012 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 18:42:54 N Lon : 87:08:42 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.3mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.2 4.2
Center Temp : -77.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.9 degrees
That white dot is the eye looking for "Water"
Taco :o)
Well, it's no Slenderman....
This is probably right at 100mph.
Sorry been off the last few weeks (much needed vacation to the mountains of Montana ;))
The first Invest for August this year would be 2012/08/01, the second 2012/08/02.
Right through to 100 if it needs be.
Simple....
Gee, thanks for the info Pat? :)
Who are you calling "old"??
Well, the good thing is, if this thing gets strong early enough, it will be a fish storm and will avoid hitting any land apart from maybe tropical storm force winds in the Cape Verde isles.
This will not be the storm that could potentially go to Bermuda, Nova Scotia, New England, Bahamas, or South East United States....
Right?
RIght????
If anything this will be the wave that knocks out the SAL for good.
MinimumPressure decreased from 983millibars to 980millibars
MaxSusWinds increased from 70knots(81mph)130km/h to 75knots(86mph)139km/h
Its vector changed from 303.8*NWest@14.5mph(23.3km/h) to 277.7*West@17.6mph(28.4km/h)
(Hard to believe Ernesto made a 26.1degree turn)
CZM-Cozumel :: TUY-Tulum :: CTM-Chetumal :: SJX-Sarteneja :: MHIC-GreatSwanIsland
The easternmost dot on the connected line-segments marks Ernesto's position on its 96th hour as a TropicalStorm
The easternmost dot on the shortest straight line is where TS.Ernesto became HurricaneErnesto, and its most recent position
The shortest line is a straightline projection through TS.Ernesto's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
7August@~8:54:38amGMT: TS.Ernesto had passed ~9.6miles(15.5kilometres)NNEast of IslaPequena
(LittlesSwanIsland is buried under the eastern end of the MHICblob)
7August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over PuntaMosquitero SianKa'an (SJXdumbbell)
7August6pmGMT: H.Ernesto was heading for passage over SianKa'an dueWest of PuntaAllen (TUYdumbbell)
8August12amGMT: H.Ernesto was heading for passage over RioIndio,CostaMaya in ~1/2.hour from now (when this comment was posted)
Copy&paste vsa, mhic-17.416n83.895w, sjx-19.175n87.54w, ctm, tuy-19.79n87.58w, czm, snj, 16.2n81.2w-16.7n82.2w, 16.7n82.2w-17.3n83.3w, 17.3n83.3w-17.8n84.4w, 17.8n84.4w-18.5n85.5w, 18.5n85.5w-18.7n87.1w, 18.5n85.5w-18.767n87.67w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison.
Not really. :P
If it ain't broke don't fix it.
And the Pacific has 3 areas, West, Central and East.
Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters
North Atlantic
East Pacific
Central Pacific
West Pacific
92L
Ernesto
Florence
93E
Gilma
No Storms
13W
91W
Haikui
Bay of Bengal
South Indian
South Pacific
South Atlantic
No Storms
No Storms
No Storms
No Storms
Rampant Disrespect, there!
They do exist, but are typically only observed in severe convection. Here is an example from that bad derecho from not too long ago.
No it doesn't. Taz is correct.
Subject: B5) What happens to the name of a tropical cyclone if it moves from the Atlantic regions to the Northeast Pacific, or vice versa? Contributed by Chris Landsea
The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin (see F1 for more about the basins), then it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area.
.............However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.
what about other basins or would there just be a global invest naming system?
No, Taz is correct. They retain their names unless in the other basin it doesn't develop on it's own (Alma-Arthur in 2008, TD-11E and Hermine in 2010)
Oh my! That is VERY rare. It's basically a TD/TS over Africa...lol
Wrong,
Wrong
10 characters versus 3 doesn't strike me as an improvement.
I think that the Alma Arthur storm in 2008 was pretty close
When did this change happen, Old Man?
Would somebody please close the door?
The dogs are getting out!
took some time but found it so no they dont
It used to be that when a Pacific named storm crossed North America and made it to the Atlantic (or vice versa), it would receive the next name on the respective basin's list. This policy has since been changed to a tropical cyclone keeping its name if it remains a tropical cyclone during the entire passage. Only if it dissipates and then re-forms does it get renamed.
Quoting angiest:
It may be something lost in time (although TBH I don't know how long they have been tagging invests). There are hysterical raisins, afterall, why weather alerts are still sent in all-caps.
This can't be good......
------------
Hysterical Raisins must be made from Grapes of Wrath.....
Agreed! TWC should go back to being 24/7 weather coverage and analysis.
Shoot it Now!
God I hope someone gets that ref!
your late
2000 Gordon was a giant among tropical storms. He was felt everywhere around FL.
OK, leave a letter-designation then.
But right now, if you wanted to remember/find info on a storm from Aug. 2010, there is no way to access it without going through the entire month.
How many 92L's in a year???
Quite a lot.
2002
Meet the teletype.
From a site about the old Emergency Broadcast System.
In case someone, somewhere, still depends on one of these ancient devices for their news, weather alerts are still transmitted in all caps.
Definitely directed at you Gro!! LOL
What I have gathered to day:
Ernesto making landfall
GFS going crazy over the next couple of weeks
Nasty looking wave over Africa
Taz running for Blog Governor
Anything else I need to know about??
Viewing: 701 - 751
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