Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan
Ernesto strengthened to a category 1 hurricane this afternoon after the morning hurricane hunter mission found winds of 80 mph, which is unusual for a hurricane without an eye wall. The hunters also found a minimum central pressure of 984 mb, which has dropped since this morning. The next hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to reach the center of the hurricane around 8pm EDT. The rain bands from Ernesto have reached the coast of Belize and Mexico as it continues to move west along the coast of Honduras, and landfall is expected north of the the Belize/Mexico border tonight around midnight. The Yucatan Basin buoy is now reporting gusts up to 53 mph, with sustained winds around 40 mph and 19 foot waves. These gusts are about 10 mph stronger than this morning's readings. Weather stations along the coast of Mexico and Belize aren't reporting winds stronger than 10 mph, however, they are expected to pick up around 8 or 9pm EDT tonight. The island of Roatan in Honduras is experiencing winds around 15 mph this afternoon, along with some light to moderate rainfall. Honduras seems to be the most impacted country so far, although they have avoided issuing evacuations. Nicaragua, however, has evacuated 1,500 people as of last night, and Mexico's authorities have evacuated around 600 residents from Punta Allen, which is a fishing village between Cozumel and Chetumal.
Visible satellite imagery suggests Ernesto still has the potential to develop an eye wall before landfall, as strong, organized thunderstorms are present in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Infrared satellite imagery shows the clockwise circulation at high levels (the upper level anti-cyclone) which will help ventilate the hurricane and could support further enhancement. If Ernesto wasn't approaching landfall, it would likely continue to strengthen and could have even experienced a period of rapid intensification, given the heat content of the Caribbean Sea. Wind shear around the hurricane remains low at 5-10 knots.
Figure 1. Radar image from Belize as the outer rain bands of Ernesto approach. This image was captured at 2:30pm EDT.
Figure 2. IR satellite imagery of Hurricane Ernesto captured at 4:15pm EDT.
Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.
Figure 3. Webcam image from Caye Walker Village in Belize.
Angela
Reader Comments
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9:50 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
I tend to agree with NHC and the models on this one. I think it will probably regain hurricane intensity, but only as a category 1. The kicker is it depends on how far north it gets before bending back to the south (will it have more time or less time over water), and of course, we've seen some unpredictable RI events in the BoC in the past few years.
Nah Taz, you'd terrorize people :P
But Angela or someone should really consider appointing someone as a moderator as the admins really can't be expected to be on all the time. The stuff that takes place on here is so bad sometimes that we flee to our own blogs.
9:50 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Great, thanks! How's it going down there?
Gordon... Gordon Ramsay...
I have a bad feeling about out next tropical cyclone.
Rapid Intensification is happening according to this.
And does C2 mean what i think it does?
Very vigorous looking wave axis. Develops this system as soon as it hits the water, which is rare.
Things never turn ugly?
The fact is that some of you always insist that you are right.
Ugliness is in the eyes of the reader!
would i evere do that? am a good little boy
Thanks Angela
That is my expectation when the HH gets there
I think some models are ready to run again in about one hour.
Already has some very good spin to it. We'll see if 92L paves the way for better conditions.
It would be the most vulgar of storms.
Erase? I would put all the storms for a season on one. Of course, this was before the active period began in '95, which was the same year I first got internet.
9:55 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
I agree with you. Ernesto has become very well-organized.
Very compact core.
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2012 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 17:43:37 N Lon : 86:11:51 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.2mb/ 63.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.4 2.7
Center Temp : -16.8C Cloud Region Temp : -58.6C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.64 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 17:43:11 N Lon: 86:23:23 W
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.4 degrees
It got complicated when they intersected though LOL
e.i. Karl 2010
When recon gets to Ernesto, someone here will be posting everything they report.
9:57 PM GMT on August 07, 2012
Exactly.
I concur.
can you make me a moderator
Beautiful pinwheel image though
Oh snap, the CV islands folks getting a direct hit, that's not common.
Pat, that does not look like the kind of thing anybody would choose to be underneath of.
After all a few years must have passed since one of those things came over the area?
Sat estimates....
But they're sometimes far off, and the NHC won't go with them if there is HH available to fly into it...
you remind us to stay on topic anyway!
Denied LOL
your house...
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