Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds
Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.
Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.
92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.
A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I agree...it's likely that the track will be similar...at least through the majority of the carribean. We'll see towards the western carribean.
@wunderman, in general that all looks like it could play out well, however, I think that your general track should be shifted a bit to the north with a little bit less of a NW curvature towards the end. I think that ultimately, the cone would be placed the same, but if that were a more official track, I would shift it north. I don't think synoptics favor a sharp turn to the NW like that.
My argument is that it's a different track. This thing WILL go wnw and won't turn back. Mark my word.
Images,,, nope. just link it. or save it and upload to imageshack.us
He'll be back. That was just one of his many handles.
Coordinates: 19.2833N 93.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.5 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,478 meters (~ 4,849 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 77° at 81 knots (From the ENE at ~ 93.1 mph)
Air Temp: 15.2°C* (~ 59.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 84 knots (~ 96.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 54 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
I don't think so
plus steering agrees with WSW movement a matter of fact it has WSW movement till it reaches 50W then W so if it does continue 92L would be around 10-11-12N when its at 50 W but I think 92L will be around 13N when it reachs 50W
Coordinates: 19.2667N 93.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.0 mb (~ 24.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,489 meters (~ 4,885 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 75° at 79 knots (From the ENE at ~ 90.8 mph)
Air Temp: 14.6°C* (~ 58.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 85 knots (~ 97.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
I never knew that.
mmmmm naked... lol
It seems all the ensembles have a very clear cut idea of where 92L will go.
ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 120809000000
2012080900
15.0 320.4
15.1 313.6
100
14.9 320.4
090600
1208090500
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 090600
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 39.6W TO 15.1N 46.4W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 25 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
090400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 39.6W AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC, APPROXIMATELY 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 78 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT EXIST IN THE REGION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 100600Z.//9212080600 116N 225W 20
9212080606 116N 235W 20
9212080612 116N 245W 20
9212080618 116N 255W 20
9212080700 117N 266W 25
9212080706 118N 278W 25
9212080712 118N 296W 25
9212080718 121N 312W 25
9212080800 127N 325W 25
9212080806 133N 339W 25
9212080812 139N 354W 25
9212080818 143N 370W 25
9212080900 145N 386W 25
you mean, something similar to Irene?
No that was an IP ban based on his original name.
When did this happen? i wanna look
Afer that I gotta get to bed, I have early appointment at the V.A. Clinic in Oceanside,CA.
Have fun and a good night for all.
If anyone is looking at the 00GFS would you post 96 to 144 hours?
It's really easy to get around IP bans, I always have an IP blocker on for security reasons.
Time: 05:11:30Z
Coordinates: 18.7833N 92.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,445 meters (~ 4,741 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 994.2 mb (~ 29.36 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 240° at 5 knots (From the WSW at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C* (~ 64.4°F*)
Dew Pt: 18.0°C* (~ 64.4°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (~ 0.28 in/hr)
Irene or Floyd, something like that
Really?
What he said^
And true...
well with that NW turn I did say
"ok I am expecting a trough to be over the Centrl US in about 120 hours and it digs down a bit while moving E bound, causing 92L to lift but at the end of the run. there seems to be a high that starts to build back in off of the SE US coast and may push it back WNW but that is way too unclear and too far out so I will leave track the way it is till later"
hmm a TCFA for 92L not surprised
hey guys even if 92L does devlop I do not sexpect it to rapidly develop (causing it to move N bound)
steady gains strength once it get to 45W hence you see in my model has it going a steady W-WNW track once it reaches 45W
Hmmm, may have a hurricane on our hands again...
I know you did...but I wasn't saying the end part...I was saying in general. But i'm not arguing with you wunder...you know I take your side a lot.
May see 93L soon.
92L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
14.93N/39.69W
Coordinates: 19.1833N 92.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.8 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,488 meters (~ 4,882 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 121° at 83 knots (From the ESE at ~ 95.4 mph)
Air Temp: 13.7°C* (~ 56.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 86 knots (~ 98.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
Stop it.
Everytime you have said that this year... "We may see ____ soon." We get a storm.
XD
oh ok you were talking in general ok I know you are not arguing with me and yes I know you take my side thank you
right good night sweet dreams to you
thinking the same thing too
last time I remembered I was doing the same lol
This is what he said yesterday:
964. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin)
10:53 PM EDT on August 07, 2012 +36
I recorded 3 short segments for TWC this morning, which they will run over the next few days. The others were about El Nino and whether 6 storms this early in the year is a harbinger of an active season (probably not, but I do expect the early part of the season will be more active than the later part, due to El Nino.) I'll be doing 2 segments per week for the coming peak part of hurricane season, it looks like. The shot today was from my home office.
I banned JFV64.
Jeff Masters
He uses the exact same phrase and them bam! Invest and a storm thereafter. XD
I've made a run at it, searched through thousands of posts, I can't find it however, it is there. It was when he was talking about his appearance on TWC and he said BTW I banned JFV24 or something like that. It's 1:40 going to bed lol, look for yourself.
92L:
African wave:
PINHOLE!
LOL
Grothar, I'm holding you to this comment as a friend. I want my chase!
NHC did mention that land friction may actually tighten up the core. Sheesh E is wasting no time at all.
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