Little change to TD 7; 93L may develop off the coast of Africa
Tropical Depression Seven continues westward across the central tropical Atlantic with little change in appearance. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto last week, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26.5°C, which is a bit on the cool side, but these temperatures are 0.5° warmer than on Thursday. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 peaked at 29 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at 1:50 am EDT this Friday morning, when the center of TD 7 passed about 40 miles to the south. TD 7 will pass about 60 miles south of buoy 41040 near midnight tonight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.
Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through tonight, then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter upper-level southwesterly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. However, ocean temperatures will warm to 28°C, which may partially counteract the increase in shear, as far as maintaining a favorable environment for development. Dry air and shear may be significant enough to destroy TD 7 on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS and ECMWF models. These models tried to kill off Ernesto in a similar situation last week, so I am inclined to believe TD 7 will survive for the coming five days, but struggle. The official NHC forecast of a 45 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday night and Sunday is a reasonable one.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.
93L
A strong tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that emerged off the coast of Africa Thursday night was designated Invest 93L by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that while the atmosphere immediately surrounding the disturbance is moist, there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara to the west and north. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week. The ECMWF model shows some weak development of 93L over the coming week, and predicts a general west-northwesterly track. The storm may be something Bermuda needs to be concerned about in eight or so days.
I'll have a new post this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Go post your nonsense on a fox for kids website. This is a weather blog.
TSUNAMI SEISMIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1040 AM AKDT FRI AUG 10 2012
...THIS IS AN INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EVALUATION
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH A MAGNITUDE SUCH THAT A TSUNAMI
IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY WCATWC MESSAGE ISSUED
FOR THIS EVENT.
PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 6.3
TIME - 1038 AKDT AUG 10 2012
1138 PDT AUG 10 2012
1838 UTC AUG 10 2012
LOCATION - 52.6 NORTH 167.4 WEST
70 MILES/113 KM SE OF NIKOLSKI ALASKA
400 MILES/644 KM E OF ADAK ALASKA
DEPTH - 19 MILES/31 KM
THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE ARE BASED ON PRELIMINARY INFORMATION.
FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY - EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV - OR THE APPROPRIATE
REGIONAL SEISMIC NETWORK.
$$
TD #7
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012
FLZ055-060-101915-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTIES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR FRUITVILLE...OR NEAR SARASOTA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...
WILL AFFECT FRUITVILLE...SAINT ARMANDS KEY...BEE RIDGE AND
SARASOTA...UNTIL 315 PM EDT.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 205 AND 224.
GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE
A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.
&&
LAT...LON 2756 8241 2729 8235 2723 8254 2735 8260
2734 8256 2739 8257 2742 8260 2738 8262
2742 8261 2743 8264 2748 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 162DEG 5KT 2734 8247
$$
" A few Good Men" LOL
Nobody should since we got TD7, 93L, epac Gilma and 94E.
18z ATCF update kept it a TD so most likely not.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
247 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
* AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ON ROADWAYS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.
LAT...LON 4107 7185 4072 7289 4097 7291 4099 7263
4117 7225 4116 7223 4112 7226 4112 7233
4105 7226 4104 7220 4107 7216 4102 7212
4102 7211 4103 7211 4108 7211 4113 7213
4113 7212 4110 7207 4100 7210 4108 7196
SEARS
BTW, it's clearing here for the nonce... saw a glimmer of sun a few minutes ago... lol... first time today...
Yep. They're popping up all over the place now. Should be a fun commute home!
It is certainly fighting off the dry air and will hit the sweet spot between 55 and 60 W during Dmax so it definitely has a good chance of "bulking up" for the ride through the Eastern caribbean.
AL, 07, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 137N, 509W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,
Meanwhile, 93L isn't doing so well:
AL, 93, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 169N, 216W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
One a side note: when will people grow up and stop trolling? And when will everyone else learn to ignore those trolls?
I would be careful with that..some of our really good tropics contributors also like to "contribute" politically...I would just minus the political comments as they come, if you don't like to read them....then you don't miss the quality tropics discussion....just my opinion..feel free to do whatever you like :)
AXNT20 KNHC 101759
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO AT 10/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 18.0N 99.2W. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE INLAND MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS
ERNESTO MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NEAR
17N104W...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN MEXICO AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W AT 10/0715 UTC.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN THOSE AREAS. COLD CLOUD TOPS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 10/1500 UTC IS NEAR
13.7N 49.5W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N
BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KNOTS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 25N
INTO COASTAL HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSOCIATE
ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE
TROPICAL WAVE.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W...THROUGH THE 20W/21W TROPICAL WAVE TO 14N21W 9N30W
AND 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W TO COASTAL FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND
30W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE
MOVING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND IN GUYANA AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 90W...MOVING AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 86W.
THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE REST OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW RESULTS FROM THE 32N88W TO
28N88W TROUGH.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N88W TO
28N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 82W AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO.
FROM FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N83W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...THROUGH THE 21N83W CYCLONIC
CENTER...TO 10N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO
26N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N86W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N.
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS WIND
FLOW RESULTS FROM NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N50W 24N52W 18N55W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W...
TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 84W IN NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N52W 18N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W...AND FROM
22N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N38W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N47W...TO 31N69W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
MT
I've done yet another detalied blog updated this morning covering all corners of the action packed Atlantic tropics...Link
No Romney or Obama, please. This is a weather blog!
As in the mid-July case, the early August ice sheet albedo has declined to an average more than 5% (or 2 standard deviations) below the average of the previous 12 years (2000-2011). A “2-sigma” event has a probability of occurrence under 5% in a random climate.
Hey Doc, my Leo/Snake/Bro!!!
Been lurking and getting really bored until you posted.
We have Birthday's coming up soon... We are getting old!!!
Good to see you post!
Gams
The Katrina paras brought back some memories for sure.
Good writing.
You mean like how we were spared from the 5th costliest hurricane in history last year? Oh right, that doesn't count because it wasn't a hit on the Gulf states and especially florida.
Irene
Desar-Douglas 1996 I experienced this one
Greta-Olivia 1978
Fifi-Orlene 1974
I don't understand the Epac track of this storm...
IRENE!!!!-Olivia 1971 long back irene goes
TD 11E-Hermine 2010
Gert-TD 14E 1 1993
and many others have done what stubborn Ernesto wants to do
Ernesto-Hector 2012 both guy names
and the big picture
Viewing: 601 - 651
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