TD 7 dies; 93L little threat to develop
Tropical Depression Seven is dead, ripped apart by moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots this Saturday morning. The storm was too small and fragile to survive the shear, thanks to dry air from the Sahara that had infiltrated the storm environment. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate as it tracks westwards across the Caribbean over the next four days. The remains of the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 7.
93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Eastern Atlantic about 300 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara surrounding 93L, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts dryness at mid-levels of the atmosphere will increase during the next five days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming seven days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning.
I'll have a new post on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The E. Carib is chock full of dry air and shear, plus trade winds. There's nothing redeveloping in that area right now. And it's also not very strong right now, which will hurt it's chances as it is. If it had a closed low I would be a little more optimistic. This convective blowup is just a combination of D-Max, convergence as it hits the trade winds, and short-term ventilation by the TUTT. It'll be gone by morning more than likely, back to a weak open wave.
However, once it hits that area Ernesto did... Could see some quick re-development and strengthening. Plenty of moisture from the monsoonal flow, low shear, and we all know about the rocket fuel water temps. I wouldn't be shocked if it became a hurricane in the gulf if shear stays low.
Just a temporary flare up, it's getting sheared pretty hard as one can see on the satellite frames
18z GFS, at 168 hours:
12z Euro, at the same time:
The latter is much weaker and farther south, but extrapolation of the pressure fields in these models suggests they are seeing the same system. Same general synoptic pattern, too.
Bears watching.
This is crazy. The person in Martinique - is he/she in the center of the wave right now?
Obviously, the wave is MUCH further north, probably due in part to a temporary weakening ridge.
Looks amazingly good...but still A LOT of dry air ahead.
This one makes me think....
When does next set of GFS model runs come out?
I know, when I wrote it might develop as it is moving over the islands, but would be further North, I got laughed off the blog. Conditions are still a little hostile in the Eastern Caribbean, but one map did indicate that shear could be decreasing.
What's with the impostor accounts? :\ Stop it!
that would be a switch.
The pouch people might say it actually is a closed circulation in a Lagrangian coordinate system (which I read is not really Lagrangian strictly speaking). I think there is an argument to be made that with the thing moving so fast the air has to circulate pretty fast around the moving center of circulation to be sensible as a west wind.
PORN!!! AHHHHH!!! DO NOT OPEN!!!!!
Just looking at some weather stations in East Martinique they are experiencing TS force winds north and east of the center !!
Exactly. This thing doesn't have a chance until reaching the western Caribbean in a few days.
noaa.gov-Guadeloupe Obs History
I'd probably tag a little of this blow-up to the base of the upper trough to the NE. Visible on WV also.
Comment 957 IS NOT WINDERKIDCAYMAN, it is a troll. That is a link to a porn site with viruses. Report immediately!
.
Omg, i just went and threw up.... wow
Not a good idea to click on any links that use shortened URL's. Never know what is there.
Yeah, well the handle threw me off and then I just clicked without paying attention.
I will not sleep well tonight... HA!
...do not open? Hope you had private browsing on... And there's worse on the Internet than that. Rule #34
Haha! So disgusting!
I wonder which one will be the bad boy?
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William
Considering where I live, I'd have to say Isaac and/or Rafael. After Rita and Ike, I don't particularly care for names that start with "I" or "R" during hurricane season.
Gotta agree w/ your analysis of the ECar conditions, though I do have one caveat. To me it seems the bulk of the energy from this Twave is going rather north of the track Ernesto took, which imo could mean slightly slower trades. Haven't looked at a recent analysis to verify, though...
Does my computer have a virus now! Dangit!!
Or it was the remnants of TD7 trying to revive itself!! LOL
Evenin' Drak.
West?
Those marsupial types.
2mph from the West.
From the W, SW and WNW. There is a weak circulation passing between Dominica and Martinique.
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