Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting dartboardmodel:
If you guys get a chance, try to tune into the PGA Championship in 20 minutes or so, you will see the weather get pretty rough for the golfers. It should be kind on funny to watch, you can see the storm clouds gathering in the background near Charleston S.C.

real bad weather up in the carolinas alright

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Don't be so certain, the GFS is continuing to show 93L developing.

you think the nhc jump the gune a little by giveing 93L a %50 ch when it 1st came off?

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Is it my imagination, or has Dr. Master's become almost gleefully negative on the hurricane season this year?

It's your imagination.

Quoting Tazmanian:



you think the nhc jump the gune a little by giveing 93L a %50 ch when it 1st came off?

No, at that time the GFS was predicting it could develop as soon as it hit the ocean. I thought that might be unreasonable due to how far north it was and the amount of SAL in the area.

Keep an eye on both ex-TD7 and 93L.

Just South of Wilmington on Hwy 133 the wind is picking up and dark clouds moving in from the South West.

look guys I wasn't too sure that TD7 would survive my self but I saw conditions getting better after the windward and thinking that the conditions just E of it would not have affected it so much well I saw it and now EX-TD7 is now about to enter conditions a little better maybe a little better than I thought #1 I thought the ULAC would develop in the Central Caribbean and expand there and when EX-TD 7 get the then things will start to blow up well it started about a day and a half earler its in the SE caribbean at this time as it moves WNW I expect conditions to become better as EX-TD 7 moves W

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...GILMA NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 120.5W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS LARGE AND WELL
DEFINED...THE CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WANED A
BIT...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 30 KT. THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR NOW...BUT RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MANZANILLO AND AN OFFSHORE SHIP SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 280/9 KT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OFF THE U.S.
WEST COAST ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESPOND BY
TURNING BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST. SINCE THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONGER STORM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT
PULLS THE STORM FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15 AND IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE ABOUT 28-29C AND MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH
OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL WELL ABOVE THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...NONE OF WHICH INDICATE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ON THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 17.7N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.9N 110.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.6N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 17.3N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
look guys I wasn't too sure that TD7 would survive my self but I saw conditions getting better after the windward and thinking that the conditions just E of it would not have affected it so much well I saw it and now EX-TD7 is now about to enter conditions a little better maybe a little better than I thought #1 I thought the ULAC would develop in the Central Caribbean and expand there and when EX-TD 7 get the then things will start to blow up well it started about a day and a half earler its in the SE caribbean at this time as it moves WNW I expect conditions to become better as EX-TD 7 moves W

Periods please

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS LARGE AND WELL
DEFINED...THE CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WANED A
BIT...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 30 KT. THE
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR NOW...BUT RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MANZANILLO AND AN OFFSHORE SHIP SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 280/9 KT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OFF THE U.S.
WEST COAST ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESPOND BY
TURNING BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST. SINCE THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONGER STORM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT
PULLS THE STORM FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15 AND IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE ABOUT 28-29C AND MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH
OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL WELL ABOVE THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...NONE OF WHICH INDICATE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ON THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 17.7N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.9N 110.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.6N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 17.3N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

...........wow we need to watch this later in the week

ex-7 is starting to fire up again.

GEEZ YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT ONE VERY LUCKY GUY..CHECK THIS LIGHTNING STORY OUT!!!.........................BARTOW --
Despite burned hands, a concussion and being a little shaken up, Kyle Cook feels pretty lucky to be live after being hit by lightning. The Polk County man said a storm moved through Bartow on Thursday night as he was at his job site at the intersection on Hwy. 98 just before 11 p.m.
"We're looking at Bay News 9, the weather radar on our laptop, and we saw it coming in closer," Cook said. When he stepped out of his vehicle and into the rain to sweep asphalt with equipment, a bolt of lightning struck feet away. "All the sudden this lightening just smack!" he recalled. "I remember getting thrown back, and that's the last I remember, until waking up and I'm seeing all my buddies just standing around me with their jaws to the floor."

With one hand on metal equipment, Cook said the current traveled through one hand and out the other. He was rushed to the hospital where his "heart wasn't acting right [and] my body was numb and tingling and burning all at the same time," Cook said.

Cook hopes his experience will drive home just how dangerous certain thunderstorms can be in the Bay area. "Only by the grace of God I'm still here," he said. "The first person I called was my wife,” he said, “I don't ever cry. I was in tears and I realized how fragile life can be."

Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, at that time the GFS was predicting it could develop as soon as it hit the ocean. I thought that might be unreasonable due to how far north it was and the amount of SAL in the area.

Keep an eye on both ex-TD7 and 93L.

ok

Link

Look at 14.2N/62.5W you can see a LLC running ahead of the rest of convection becoming exposed!

Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Look at 14.2N/62.5W you can see a LLC running ahead of the rest of convection becoming exposed!

That's not a circulation...that's just an outflow boundary from dry air.

guys do no yet ex TD 7 t-storms fool you

LLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
436 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WILSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
EAST CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 432 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER GRANTHAM...OR 9 MILES WEST OF GOLDSBORO...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDSBORO...
NAHUNTA...
PIKEVILLE...
FREMONT...
EUREKA...
STANTONSBURG...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 116 AND 121.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.



LAT...LON 3557 7782 3542 7782 3541 7780 3537 7780
3523 7813 3527 7823 3533 7823 3578 7804
3584 7792 3584 7785 3586 7783 3585 7779
3583 7775 3573 7772 3567 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 228DEG 18KT 3537 7811



MWS

..........................one coming towards you Tampa

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
452 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FLZ052-112145-
POLK-
452 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LOUGHMAN TO ALTURAS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST
OF MGM STUDIOS TO BARTOW...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
AUBURNDALE...WINTER HAVEN AIRPORT...INWOOD AND BARTOW MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2787 8139 2782 8184 2835 8177 2835 8166
2827 8165 2826 8156 2820 8152 2815 8152
2815 8146 2809 8144 2809 8137 2802 8138
2805 8145 2800 8141 2800 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 270DEG 10KT 2831 8171 2786 8177

$$

Well, these strong storms missed my area by few miles... no worries here!

Quoting pipelines:


Periods please

nope

right now EX-TD7 is in zombie mode mad may come out of it soon

Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Look at 14.2N/62.5W you can see a LLC running ahead of the rest of convection becoming exposed!

hey sorry buddy I don't see it well I see what you are talking about but it not a spin or not any more I think maybe it has multiple spins and it disorganised but that may change soon I don't think we would be getting a difinitive spin till either late tonight or tomorrow its a strong wave yes and its trying to redevelop yes but slowly and surely it going to get there redevelopment prob is going up redevelopment is becoming more and more likely just have to wait

Quoting Grothar:


When Mr. Rogers would say "Good morning boys and girl" It was really a code. There are rumors that he didn't die, but went on to blogging on an obscure weather website watching what everyone was saying.

I heard he was on every single day for fifteen years.

Quoting HuracanTaino:
I don't blame them, I'm an adult and still get hyped by hurricanes, not wishing any harm but excited nevertheless !!
"Excitement and thrill is part of growing up, is normal...."

There also are people with thrill seeking personalities. Studies show that they tend to be well adjusted.

Big rain coming to S FL soon!!

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Is it my imagination, or has Dr. Master's become almost gleefully negative on the hurricane season this year?

Setting aside the issue of whether your observation is accurate, would being gleefully negative be a good or bad thing?

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


nope

right now EX-TD7 is in zombie mode mad may come out of it soon



hey sorry buddy I don't see it well I see what you are talking about but it not a spin or not any more I think maybe it has multiple spins and it disorganised but that may change soon I don't think we would be getting a difinitive spin till either late tonight or tomorrow its a strong wave yes and its trying to redevelop yes but slowly and surely it going to get there redevelopment prob is going up redevelopment is becoming more and more likely just have to wait

TA13 explained what it was, kinda resembled a LLC exposed though!

Tornado Warning for Wilson and Edgecombe Counties in North Carolina. That's about 30 miles northeast from me.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:

definitely a circulation there, but I think that is a ULL

Quoting stormpetrol:


TA13 explained what it was, kinda resembled a LLC exposed though!

I know I can see were it resembles one

Tornado in Eastern North Carolina.

Its partly sunny here right now but storms are heading our way

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

its upper level duh

I said that, quit with the attitude

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Tornado in Eastern North Carolina.

its getting bad..they thought the cloud coverage would inhibit convection but it aint going down as so..

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

its upper level duh

why do you always got to have an attitude!

look at that cold front moving through SE states

wow ok conditions more so in the Upper levels are getting better quicker than I thought new map are out

ok #1 we have a upper level anticyclone in the SE caribbean that is developing quite nicely and now most of the shear in the Caribbean is falling





850vort is less elongated and is now N-S orintated rather than ENE-WSW center ove the vort seems to be near St Lucia and Martinique

vort at 700mb are good

500mb vort is increaseing as well though off just E of vort stacked at 850 and 700mb this is expected as shear is still affecting it

Quoting ncstorm:
look at that cold front moving through SE states

...yes you had and have alot of warnings,be careful up there

Quoting LargoFl:
...yes you had and have alot of warnings,be careful up there

Thanks Largo..its getting dark here now for my area..

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow ok conditions more so in the Upper levels are getting better quicker than I thought new map are out

ok #1 we have a upper level anticyclone in the SE caribbean that is developing quite nicely and now most of the shear in the Caribbean is falling





850vort is less elongated and is now N-S orintated rather than ENE-WSW center ove the vort seems to be near St Lucia and Martinique

vort at 700mb are good

500mb vort is increaseing as well though off just E of vort stacked at 850 and 700mb this is expected as shear is still affecting it

your shear map shows unfavorable conditions in the Eastern Caribbean for now.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


I said that, quit with the attitude

Quoting GPTGUY:



why do you always got to have an attitude!

oh the attitude yeah sorry and I don't always have it yeah today was an bussy day and other thing going on

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big rain coming to S FL soon!!

..wow just look at those radars

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow ok conditions more so in the Upper levels are getting better quicker than I thought new map are out

ok #1 we have a upper level anticyclone in the SE caribbean that is developing quite nicely and now most of the shear in the Caribbean is falling





850vort is less elongated and is now N-S orintated rather than ENE-WSW center ove the vort seems to be near St Lucia and Martinique

vort at 700mb are good

500mb vort is increaseing as well though off just E of vort stacked at 850 and 700mb this is expected as shear is still affecting it

My prediction is ex TD7 will be blooming again in the morning, saw this happen too often.

Quoting ncstorm:
look at that cold front moving through SE states

...........wow those are some real strong storms in the southeast,dangerous too, and on a saturday when probably not too many are listening for the warnings

We haven't heard the last of ex-TD 7 yet ... even the ECMWF now hangs on to it across the Caribbean.