Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop
The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.
93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That would make a good music category question on Jeopardy........... :)
There was a big one that turned Charley. That I think maybe the scenario this year.
"The song is notable for being one of a few instances in popular music in which a large portion of scripture is set to music, other examples being The Melodians' "Rivers of Babylon", Sister Janet Mead's "The Lord's Prayer", and U2's "40"."
wikipedia
yeah, too many parameters to dismiss the season..timing of troughs..placement of highs and depends on how strong the CV storms are..
Looks impressive in rainbow
Not to bad in funktop
and Vapour
Morning everybody... beautiful day here in Nassau, though I dare say the heat will be massive later on...
Enjoy your Monday!
Hey Taz. What do you think about all the dry air ahead of former TD7?
U.S. destroyer, oil tanker collide
(CNN) -- A U.S. guided missile destroyer was involved in a collision with an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy announced.
Now if the Jeopardy question asked for a pop song based on scripture and appropriate for describing the behaviour of at least one weather phenomenon....
And the winning weather/trof/music song is?............. :)
Good Morning........Beautiful indeed this am for Florida and the Bahamas.
I think the death toll was low in large part because Charley was a relatively small, compact storm that moved very quickly. Never the less, that storm impacted many lives for years to come
Very true. While most of Florida is in great shape, East Central FL is hurting. In south Osceola county we only had 4.48" for July and only 0.78" to date for August. We had a great June though with over 12".
In making long-range outlooks forecasters look at persistence charts, we tell us the degree to which a particular month or seasons weather is likely to continue into the next month or season or likely to reverse. Research tells us that on a national basis the greatest persistence of temperature patterns is June to August and again for December to January. So we know the summer is not a good predictor of fall or winter weather. In other words, from an historic climatological view point the coming two seasons can go either way following a hot summer…because they have in the past.
The lowest correlation of persistence is between October and November, or put another way. October temperature patterns yield almost zero clue as to what November will bring.
full article: Early peak at autumn and winter weather
I'll be bach in many hours.. :(
Captain was Tweeting, lol.
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