Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop
The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.
93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Slow day haha, not much to talk about right now except the ghost of TD7.
Probably drugs...
How else could one explain that? XD
Still there post from iPad let me no if it post
The Wizard of Oz movie musical premieres in Oconomowoc, Wisconsin
Okay now that actually made me laugh out loud really hard.ROFLMAO.
No kidding. I think that weatherman posted that earlier before he left. Looks strange
He likely wish casting lol
With a inactive ITCZ dry air has a chance to enter the area.
Making things more unfavorable for TWs moving through the area.
What am I seeing off north Carolina? lots of convection.
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Ehh... Just something to watch.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (T1213)
9:00 AM JST August 13 2012
====================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak (998 hPa) located at 16.5N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.1N 127.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.5N 125.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 21.4N 122.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
It's not that slow.
Thanks for the plus! :)
LATEST UPDATE... ALL EDT TIME otherwise specified
more like the stairs
are not making it
all the way to the landing
This should hold you over...
We don't need no stinkin circles!!
You would e mail wounder blog admin and yet him no what's going on so he dos not ban the wrong name
Just a heads up...Do not go riding a bicycle during a tornado warning...
How do you know this is going to happen?
Because he's been in the chat most of this afternoon and is excited his account becomes active tomorrow morning.
Had a very windy day here on the islands but it seems to be calming down now.
Just as an aside, I KNOW I saw strange pictures of televisions and a lotto ticket a few minutes ago. I went to "!" them and they're gone. Many thanks to the Admin or whoever it was that did it!
Lindy
It's not exactly the same, he has capital I's instead of lowercase l's. I also have an imposter, so you see anything rude or vulgar posted by him, it's not me.
Check the 12z Euro. There is something very interesting at MDR. But is the first run that model shows it.
What's the account name?
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