Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop
The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.
93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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your the one that started it
NWS Discussion NOLA
do u undrstan me now?
cuz idk wat im sayin atm
That's nothing new, Harrison.
Why are we using direct adressess, cody?
I witness this first hand, and I agree. And to think, around 30 years from now these same crazy teenagers, myself included, will be the ones running the country... Hopefully enough people with enough morals and intelligence survive and at least give my generation a chance.
Wind shear is dropping ahead of ex TD 7, but its forward motion will remain a huge issue. Don't expect regeneration until it passes Jamaica at the very least.
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1758 UTC SUN AUG 12 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952012) 20120812 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120812 1800 120813 0600 120813 1800 120814 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 93.6W 14.3N 95.1W 15.1N 97.0W 16.4N 99.1W
BAMD 13.7N 93.6W 14.2N 95.3W 15.0N 97.0W 15.9N 98.8W
BAMM 13.7N 93.6W 14.8N 95.4W 16.0N 97.1W 17.4N 99.0W
LBAR 13.7N 93.6W 14.5N 95.7W 15.6N 98.4W 16.8N 101.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 30KTS 28KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120814 1800 120815 1800 120816 1800 120817 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 101.3W 20.8N 106.2W 23.1N 111.4W 24.1N 117.5W
BAMD 17.0N 100.7W 19.3N 104.7W 21.7N 109.4W 24.0N 114.2W
BAMM 19.1N 101.1W 22.0N 105.6W 24.3N 110.7W 25.4N 116.9W
LBAR 18.2N 104.3W 22.3N 109.3W 27.6N 111.9W 30.3N 111.5W
SHIP 49KTS 62KTS 67KTS 62KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 31KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 93.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 91.4W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 89.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
On a weather note: I think the next two weeks should get active. Isn't it ironic that when the number of storms expected were increased the activity seemed to go down.
There really isn't anything one can do to go against the mainstream anymore. It's just too strong and well established to go against it. All you can do is stay under the radar that you think what's going on is unacceptable, because if you step up, "they" cut you down.
Contemporary society has very little to do with it. Lazy, unengaged parents who blame things like contemporary society, technology and the school system are the problem.
Good for you midgulfmom! My kids are the same way! Mine also have a awesome set of morals and dare to be differnt than their peers. Seriously proud of them
It's called keyboarding now. Typing is obsolete.
Yep, it bottomed out in the high 950's. Very intense.
Link
850mb looking better.
That link you posted is very interesting, as not only does the storm get into the "950s" but it continues to exist for about 14 days and remains almost stationary, not that it could really go anywhere as it was all ready there and not a lot of 'effects,'to effect it.
Thanks for the link.
Awesome Mom! :)
And the kids are watching right next to their folkes. Doesn't work unless you lead by example and just try to dictate what they should do. When we had a tv, I never watched anything with her to desensitise her to any of the above. Not to mention, I just don't like stuff like that myself. But if I were going to watch anything that would have it in it, would be after she was asleep. And then of course she'll form her own opinions about it all naturally without it seeming the 'norm'. She's 14 now, she doesn't wear make up or want to, she doesn't care about celebrities or pop/mainstream stuff. She knows she's different, and she seems quite proud of it, so, hopefully she'll be on course to make the most of herself for herself, and not just trying to get the attention of guys for her self esteem. As for the whole marriage thing...that's the key, a 'stable' one. My last husband ended up being abusive, so have been living as a single mom for 9 or 10 years. My first husband was a closet drug addict, so not any better! So after those 2, reckoned was better to go it alone despite how difficult it is financially. But, a stable home environment is key, fore me raising her alone has been the best way to give her that. My parents split when I was 14, and they hated that they had kids and made it clear! Sort of stereotypical, selfish 80's yuppies really LOL So wasn't a much better environment being raised by both LOL Not going to go more into this, but just saying from my point of view, take it or leave it...
my thing is be a parent and not a friend and your child will turn out fine
LOL somehow I find that sad... I use cursive writing and I can't imagine an America where people don't know how...I mean in my day we went to school to learn the three R's...reading, righting, and rithmatic :) Glad I missed the grammar test I was never a good student. Break is about over so I will be going back outside to finish some painting as soon as I can make myself get up from here :)
haha shame you're not in the UK, can go in a betting shop in town and place a bet on pretty much anything...including weather!
12z Euro 144 hours
CMC
GFS not so enthused
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