Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Remains of TD 7 kill two in Trinidad; 93L too dry to develop
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012 +35
The remains of Tropical Depression Seven brought heavy rains to Trinidad on Saturday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed two people and left two others missing in Diego Martin. The storm is headed westward at 20 mph across the Caribbean, but high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should prevent the system from regenerating. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate, and the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-TD 7 a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.


Figure 1. An analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) from 8 am EDT August 12, 2012. Very dry air from the Sahara (yellow and orange colors) surrounds the tropical wave designated 93L in the Central Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/Hurricane Research Division.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that 93L is surrounded by a large area of dry air from the Sahara, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain very dry during the next four days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming five days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. The GFS model is predicting 93L will develop into a tropical depression in about a week, once the storm recurves and begins heading northeast. At this point, it does not appear 93L will trouble any land areas.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Hurricane
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151. LargoFl 5:50 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421
152. Tazmanian 5:50 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey stop breaking the non-argueing state that we were in



your the one that started it
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154. LargoFl 5:52 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
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155. Patrap 5:53 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
156. Tribucanes 5:53 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Not the kids' fault in America. When contemporary society tells you over and over again that it's what you look like and not what you know that's vital; then your going to focus on the wrong things. Just watch MTV shows or Housewives of anything. Young, impressionable kids watch those shows all the time now. I see this behavior emulated every day by kids. And the music lyrics are so sexually aggressive now. I wish I had a dime for every time some kid has told me that they don't affect them. And yet, they're behaviors mirror the lyrics; they are just completely oblivious to it. That's my rant for the day, I'm done. Just very sad it's come to this in America.
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157. LargoFl 5:53 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
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158. weatherh98 5:54 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just bcuz we txt like this...

Does not mean we do not know correct grammar. :)


do u undrstan me now?

cuz idk wat im sayin atm

Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031
159. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:55 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:


do u undrstan me now?

cuz idk wat im sayin atm


That's nothing new, Harrison.
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160. LargoFl 5:55 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
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161. weatherh98 5:56 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's nothing new, Harrison.


Why are we using direct adressess, cody?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6031
163. midgulfmom 5:59 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Afternoon...exTD07 doesn't look too bad to me...but WDIK...someone mentioned the speed being the problem though. Will the shear and winds across the Carribean hold up and for how long? Anyone know? TIA
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164. LargoFl 5:59 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
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165. LargoFl 6:00 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
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166. WxGeekVA 6:01 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting Tribucanes:
Not the kids' fault in America. When contemporary society tells you over and over again that it's what you look like and not what you know that's vital; then your going to focus on the wrong things. Just watch MTV shows or Housewives of anything. Young, impressionable kids watch those shows all the time now. I see this behavior emulated every day by kids. And the music lyrics are so sexually aggressive now. I wish I had a dime for every time some kid has told me that they don't affect them. And yet, they're behaviors mirror the lyrics; they are just completely oblivious to it. That's my rant for the day, I'm done. Just very sad it's come to this in America.


I witness this first hand, and I agree. And to think, around 30 years from now these same crazy teenagers, myself included, will be the ones running the country... Hopefully enough people with enough morals and intelligence survive and at least give my generation a chance.
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167. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:02 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting midgulfmom:
Afternoon...exTD07 doesn't look too bad to me...but WDIK...someone mentioned the speed being the problem though. Will the shear and winds across the Carribean hold up and for how long? Anyone know? TIA

Wind shear is dropping ahead of ex TD 7, but its forward motion will remain a huge issue. Don't expect regeneration until it passes Jamaica at the very least.
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168. Tazmanian 6:05 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
the nhc is now starting too get a little old saying the same thing all most evere update YAWAN
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171. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:11 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
WHXX01 KMIA 121758
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1758 UTC SUN AUG 12 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952012) 20120812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120812 1800 120813 0600 120813 1800 120814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 93.6W 14.3N 95.1W 15.1N 97.0W 16.4N 99.1W
BAMD 13.7N 93.6W 14.2N 95.3W 15.0N 97.0W 15.9N 98.8W
BAMM 13.7N 93.6W 14.8N 95.4W 16.0N 97.1W 17.4N 99.0W
LBAR 13.7N 93.6W 14.5N 95.7W 15.6N 98.4W 16.8N 101.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120814 1800 120815 1800 120816 1800 120817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 101.3W 20.8N 106.2W 23.1N 111.4W 24.1N 117.5W
BAMD 17.0N 100.7W 19.3N 104.7W 21.7N 109.4W 24.0N 114.2W
BAMM 19.1N 101.1W 22.0N 105.6W 24.3N 110.7W 25.4N 116.9W
LBAR 18.2N 104.3W 22.3N 109.3W 27.6N 111.9W 30.3N 111.5W
SHIP 49KTS 62KTS 67KTS 62KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 31KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 93.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 91.4W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 89.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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172. midgulfmom 6:11 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Tribucanes...not all kids of course. Mine unusual....no FB for one and little use of it from the other. Too much drama one says. They don't like to text...too impersonal. They like face to face communication.

On a weather note: I think the next two weeks should get active. Isn't it ironic that when the number of storms expected were increased the activity seemed to go down.
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173. ncstorm 6:13 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Good Afternoon Everyone!!
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174. midgulfmom 6:13 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wind shear is dropping ahead of ex TD 7, but its forward motion will remain a huge issue. Don't expect regeneration until it passes Jamaica at the very least.
Thanks!
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002
175. WxGeekVA 6:15 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting Altestic2012:

Still, you can't use the **** our generation has had to grow through as an excuse to not be one of the ones to revolt against the disbanding of ethical prowess, this "progressiveness" that has been allowed to continue to emanate in this nation.


There really isn't anything one can do to go against the mainstream anymore. It's just too strong and well established to go against it. All you can do is stay under the radar that you think what's going on is unacceptable, because if you step up, "they" cut you down.
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176. PlazaRed 6:15 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
I see we have a 95E, just popped into the picture.
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177. LoneStarWeather 6:15 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting Tribucanes:
Not the kids' fault in America. When contemporary society tells you over and over again that it's what you look like and not what you know that's vital; then your going to focus on the wrong things. Just watch MTV shows or Housewives of anything. Young, impressionable kids watch those shows all the time now. I see this behavior emulated every day by kids. And the music lyrics are so sexually aggressive now. I wish I had a dime for every time some kid has told me that they don't affect them. And yet, they're behaviors mirror the lyrics; they are just completely oblivious to it. That's my rant for the day, I'm done. Just very sad it's come to this in America.

Contemporary society has very little to do with it. Lazy, unengaged parents who blame things like contemporary society, technology and the school system are the problem.
Member Since: September 8, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
178. txjac 6:15 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting midgulfmom:
Tribucanes...not all kids of course. Mine unusual....no FB for one and little use of it from the other. Too much drama one says. They don't like to text...too impersonal. They like face to face communication.

On a weather note: I think the next two weeks should get active. Isn't it ironic that when the number of storms expected were increased the activity seemed to go down.


Good for you midgulfmom! My kids are the same way! Mine also have a awesome set of morals and dare to be differnt than their peers. Seriously proud of them
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563
179. bappit 6:15 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hated having to learn cursive.I had a strict teacher as well that just wouldn't let up.I'm glad they're teaching typing though.I mean we are in the digital age.

It's called keyboarding now. Typing is obsolete.
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180. gregpinehurstnc 6:16 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
One day in the future, the kids like me between 10-20 years old now will look back and say they witnessed the beginning of the real digital age, where the ways of the past died right in front of our very eyes. This is the beginning of the period of accelerating technological and social change that will last for the remainder of human existence and when the ways of the past are forgot,, history shall repeat,
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181. Progster 6:17 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
This sign must truly herald the end of the Olympics as they knew it!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2012/08 /12/north-arctic-cyclone-beaufort-sea.html?cmp=rss


Yep, it bottomed out in the high 950's. Very intense.

Link

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182. midgulfmom 6:22 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


There really isn't anything one can do to go against the mainstream anymore. It's just too strong and well established to go against it. All you can do is stay under the radar that you think what's going on is unacceptable, because if you step up, "they" cut you down.
Sad but true. Kindred spirits are out there....just harder to find now. But keep looking, you'll find.
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183. stormpetrol 6:24 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    


850mb looking better.
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184. PlazaRed 6:24 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting Progster:

That link you posted is very interesting, as not only does the storm get into the "950s" but it continues to exist for about 14 days and remains almost stationary, not that it could really go anywhere as it was all ready there and not a lot of 'effects,'to effect it.
Thanks for the link.
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186. gordydunnot 6:27 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Ex-td7 looking better this afternoon may bring life to WKCaman.
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187. midgulfmom 6:27 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting txjac:


My kids are the same way! Mine also have a awesome set of morals and dare to be differnt than their peers. Seriously proud of them

Awesome Mom! :)
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188. Grothar 6:27 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Poor little thing.

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189. stormpetrol 6:28 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
I think it's time reactivate a floater on exTD7 , looking better every hour.
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190. gordydunnot 6:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Yes Petrol, on the visible I believe I see a circulation even on the surface.
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191. mitthbevnuruodo 6:30 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting Altestic2012:

The problem is they choose to listen to the wrong music and watch the wrong TV shows. So much of the hip hop and pop music today (that, which the popular "preppy" kids choose to listen to) as well as the mainstream TV shows on the network channels and Viacom (e.g. MTV, VH1, BET, Comedy Central, Spike) endorse sexual activity outside of a stable, healthy engagement or marriage, one-night stands, fighting, abuse, rape, murder, etc. There are the good bands like Metallica which endorse faith and strong morals and then the nameless ones which endorse--you know.


And the kids are watching right next to their folkes. Doesn't work unless you lead by example and just try to dictate what they should do. When we had a tv, I never watched anything with her to desensitise her to any of the above. Not to mention, I just don't like stuff like that myself. But if I were going to watch anything that would have it in it, would be after she was asleep. And then of course she'll form her own opinions about it all naturally without it seeming the 'norm'. She's 14 now, she doesn't wear make up or want to, she doesn't care about celebrities or pop/mainstream stuff. She knows she's different, and she seems quite proud of it, so, hopefully she'll be on course to make the most of herself for herself, and not just trying to get the attention of guys for her self esteem. As for the whole marriage thing...that's the key, a 'stable' one. My last husband ended up being abusive, so have been living as a single mom for 9 or 10 years. My first husband was a closet drug addict, so not any better! So after those 2, reckoned was better to go it alone despite how difficult it is financially. But, a stable home environment is key, fore me raising her alone has been the best way to give her that. My parents split when I was 14, and they hated that they had kids and made it clear! Sort of stereotypical, selfish 80's yuppies really LOL So wasn't a much better environment being raised by both LOL Not going to go more into this, but just saying from my point of view, take it or leave it...
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192. BahaHurican 6:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting beell:
Kids r still expected...
Twave would take almost 2x as long...
[lol @ the hubris of this]...
Thanks 4 the reminder...

lol, bh
There is a reason I don't expect perfection of others... then they'd expect it of me... lol

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193. midgulfmom 6:32 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
188. Grother....Is that sarcasm flag on?
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194. cyclonekid 6:34 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
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195. PalmBeachWeather 6:35 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting lovemamatus:
Wow!! 10 % chance within 48 hrs? Seven is certain to become a major hurricane in the Western Carib. Walton is being way too conservative here.

I wish there was a betting line on this site.
love....... I would wager my car, my house, and my dog against you... Your name shows your type
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196. GeorgiaStormz 6:35 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Well this is certainly an interesting topic we are on.....i elect to not get involved
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197. ncstorm 6:37 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
You guys do realize you have become your parents..dont you think their generation said the same thing about us and our culture when we growing up and MTV just came on on the air?..their parents also said the same thing when bandstand aired?..every generation there are some out there that tried to be over the top but in the end, we turned out okay (speaking for myself) as your parents did and so on..not giving an excuse to what our kids see and hear but they will probably be saying the same thing about their own children..you guys just gotten old..LOL..

my thing is be a parent and not a friend and your child will turn out fine
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198. icmoore 6:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting sdswwwe:
Why would they teach cursive in schools nowadays? I haven't seen anyone write in cursive in a long time so seems like a waste of time to me. If anything, teach how to read it.


LOL somehow I find that sad... I use cursive writing and I can't imagine an America where people don't know how...I mean in my day we went to school to learn the three R's...reading, righting, and rithmatic :) Glad I missed the grammar test I was never a good student. Break is about over so I will be going back outside to finish some painting as soon as I can make myself get up from here :)
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199. mitthbevnuruodo 6:40 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting lovemamatus:
Wow!! 10 % chance within 48 hrs? Seven is certain to become a major hurricane in the Western Carib. Walton is being way too conservative here.

I wish there was a betting line on this site.


haha shame you're not in the UK, can go in a betting shop in town and place a bet on pretty much anything...including weather!
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200. ncstorm 6:40 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Anyone noticing the strong east coast trough that some of the models have been showing?

12z Euro 144 hours


CMC


GFS not so enthused
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201. HuracanTaino 6:41 PM GMT on August 12, 2012    
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think it's time reactivate a floater on exTD7 , looking better every hour.
Quite windy*25mph, gusting to 35 at times, here in western Puerto Rico as ex TD7 passes to our south....
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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