Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Was it? Must have missed that.

You miss a lot of things.

Winds gusting pretty strong here at Mayaguez, Puerto Rico.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Sheesh... like they need any more...

What, u mean BTC??? if so, I used to get better Sunday service on their days off... lol nobody wanted to get called in to deal w/ an emergency...

Yeah, BTC. I think it's been privatised now, right? I remember, when sailing the Caribbean in the early days of cell phones, BTC was the only carrier allowed to operate. Horrible service and astronomical prices. Monopolies are almost never a good thing.

ok update for 18Z maps

Shear
shear continues to decrease over EX-TD7. 30kt nearly non exsistent. 20kts is shrinking, becoming much better for the EX-TD.
shear tend. is droping.

vort at 925mb is good.
vort at 850mb is good.
vort at 700mb is good.
vort at 500mb is ok still need some work.

lower convergence is good.

steering shows a general W track, WNW-NW in the NW Caribbean, steering also starting to show more decrease in wind speeds, more so from 71W-72.5W/73W.
(before there was deeper redish orange. now has a lighter orange, more yellow, more so at the 72.5W mark, and now more greens and blues showing up in the NW caribbean, this change in colour indicates that the trades are falling, more so from 72.5W onwards. however it is still abit strong, but, if this trend continues, expect the trades fall to moderate to light by tomorrow evening.)

Dry air is becomeing less affective on the system as shear decreases on it, looking at WV shows the dry air moving away from the system as the system is now tring to expands it moisture field.

sattelite presentation it getting much better small blobs and spots of convection now coming together into one. I think by sunrise tomorrow with D-MAX should help, big time.



my thoughts
EX-TD 7 may get its act togeather earler than most people think, now that the evidence that the trades are droping plus the better conditions are become present. we maybe looking at redevelopment stage being earler than thought. maybe we may get a stronger storm in the Central-Western Caribbean to NW caribbean and GOM than previously thought. now ok before you all go gunhoe on me I'm waiting for more maps to come out before my confidence of what is happening rises pass the 50% mark

Hi Levi, the ECMWF on the 12z run has a developing system in the MDR.Are things going to be favorable there on the 22nd?

Quoting Chicklit:

Guess I'm having an 'off' day.
Would love to see the models wrong for a change.
Link Caribbean WV Loop

Got home, WU dropped ex-7? Doesn't look all that dead to me?

Quoting BahaHurican:
You can smile when you can't say a word;
You can smile though you cannot be heard;
You can smile when it's cloudy or fair;
You can smile anytime anywhere.

So I'm Pollyanna personified... sue me...

LOL

Though I gotta admit having A/C makes it that much easier....

Quoting SouthTampa:
I think I live 5 miles east of you (E end of Ulmerton, right by 275). We got close to 3" yesterday. Typical Florida storms, eh?

Unfortunately we are stuck in a pattern that means lots of heavy rain for everyone except the near coastline in most cases, I'm one of those places that is near the coastline. I've never had this little amount of rain at this point in August, it's so weird because we got absolutely slammed throughout June and July and ever since I've lived here you can count on August bringing even more than June and July. The patterns for rain throughout all of August so far have not favored this area, and it seems that when rain is around is it is avoiding us at all costs. I'm just glad we did have so much rain in June and July because this area is typically soaked in August but strangely not so far. I would imagine this strange trend has to end sooner or later.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Happy 20,000 comments TA13!

Way too many. I need to get a life. XD

Quoting BahaHurican:
Sounds like interesting reading... I admit to reading absolutely nothing of value [besides, occasionally, posts in this blog... lol] while I've been on vacation thus far. I do have some interesting reading that I started earlier in the year before things got too hectic that I'll likely pick up later...

I'll be reading Fiscal Administration (Mikesell), Financial Management in the Public Sector, Performance Analysis for Pubic and Nonprofit Organizations and Research Methods for Public Administrators.
Obviously, this won't leave time for 'something you always wanted to know about everything.'

Quoting Levi32:
We're going to have to watch ex-TD 7 carefully by this Friday into next week as it slips into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough digging into the southern U.S. will be setting up a weakness in the ridge there that could result in a fairly stagnant pattern where TD 7's remnants could fester and reorganize over the course of several days as the trough to the northeast takes its time in leaving the scene. Such a pattern with a tropical disturbance southwest of a mid-latitude trough axis can be favorable for development by supporting low-level convergence and ridging aloft. Model support right now is minimal, but the GFS is starting to drop hints of support for this scenario, and I wouldn't be surprised to see other models start to see this as a possibility.

In 7 days look at the favorable upper high over the western gulf due to the pattern caused by the digging trough to the northeast and the MJO coming trough:

This does make sense as speed shear occurs causing anti-cyclonic motion in the upper levels of the western gulf. Could have another scenario as with Debby with weak steering currents...will it get absorbed into the trough or get shoved in Texas...could be yet another tough forecast if that scenario comes to pass...GFS has been all over the place when it comes to track but something to watch nonetheless

Thanks for that tidbit there Levi. Most interesting thing weather wise I've seen or read all day. :) Curious what the NHC will have to say about all this in their upcoming update.

Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks for that tidbit there Levi. Most interesting thing weather wise I've seen or read all day. :) Curious what the NHC will have to say about all this in their upcoming update.

This says KmanIslander was right and the models were wrong...ha!
Starting to feel better already.

Quoting Patrap:
There are now 130 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Yeah!

41 days left of summer.

Quoting Chicklit:

This says KmanIslander was right and the models were wrong...ha!

was wrong about what again? :)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Way too many. I need to get a life. XD

No. This is your life. haha
Better go before I get banned.
Will have to check back later on 007.
Have a nice evening everyone.

wunderkidcayman must be thrilled. He's been saying TD07 would be making a comeback since they declassified it.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

was wrong about what again? :)

The models were showing zero development for TD7.
It's in the headlines. Dr. Masters' blog, NHC 2 p.m. Discussion...Kman has been pointing out its persistence.

Quoting Tribucanes:
wunderkidcayman must be thrilled. He's been saying TD07 would be making a comeback since they declassified it.

I've been saying it and... come on say it

Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Yeah!

41 days left of summer.

My summer is ending as we blog...boo hoo

How is this possible?

Quoting sar2401:


Yeah, BTC. I think it's been privatised now, right? I remember, when sailing the Caribbean in the early days of cell phones, BTC was the only carrier allowed to operate. Horrible service and astronomical prices. Monopolies are almost never a good thing.

They'd done a lot to improve that, though... put in a lot of new infrastructure etc... so the new guys got a totally revamped phone system, with trunking to Haiti, for practically nothing. And it's STILL a monopoly. Pple r up in arms because they look like they are phasing out the prepaid phones that are extremely popular here but have done nothing to improve service... and the system has suffered numerous island-wide service blackouts that have gone unexplained... basically I've seen no improvement in the service since the change, so I still am not quite sure what the big deal was all about. Everybody who was pro-privitization PROMISED service would be better and less costly, but no sign of that yet.

OTOH, I've not been using my phone in the Family Islands, so I don't know how much improvement we've had out there...

Quoting sar2401:


Yeah, BTC. I think it's been privatised now, right? I remember, when sailing the Caribbean in the early days of cell phones, BTC was the only carrier allowed to operate. Horrible service and astronomical prices. Monopolies are almost never a good thing.

PS... shoulda know u were a sailor... lol... have d done any diving in our waters?

Quoting Levi32:
We're going to have to watch ex-TD 7 carefully by this Friday into next week as it slips into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough digging into the southern U.S. will be setting up a weakness in the ridge there that could result in a fairly stagnant pattern where TD 7's remnants could fester and reorganize over the course of several days as the trough to the northeast takes its time in leaving the scene. Such a pattern with a tropical disturbance southwest of a mid-latitude trough axis can be favorable for development by supporting low-level convergence and ridging aloft. Model support right now is minimal, but the GFS is starting to drop hints of support for this scenario, and I wouldn't be surprised to see other models start to see this as a possibility.

In 7 days look at the favorable upper high over the western gulf due to the pattern caused by the digging trough to the northeast and the MJO coming trough:

Seconded. Was seeing a hint of a significant GOM storm by 156-170 hrs yesterday and that is still showing up today.


Big questions will be how fast it develops, if it does, and where it goes.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Way too many. I need to get a life. XD

you have a life just different than others.:) if you are happy of how your life is now then continue with it.

The last time Doc declared a system dead:

Update on remains of TD 10
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:40 PM EDT on August 22, 2005 +0

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever

well I think we all know what happened. Ya woulda thought the good Dr would've learned a lesson- never ever EVER call a system dead.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Unfortunately we are stuck in a pattern that means lots of heavy rain for everyone except the near coastline in most cases, I'm one of those places that is near the coastline. I've never had this little amount of rain at this point in August, it's so weird because we got absolutely slammed throughout June and July and ever since I've lived here you can count on August bringing even more than June and July. The patterns for rain throughout all of August so far have not favored this area, and it seems that when rain is around is it is avoiding us at all costs. I'm just glad we did have so much rain in June and July because this area is typically soaked in August but strangely not so far. I would imagine this strange trend has to end sooner or later.

I thought most of the AUG period rains came AFTER the 15th.... I know it's true here. The first 10 days of Aug are almost dry... the last 10 are almost always rainy... but W coast FL may be different.

Quoting redwagon:

Got home, WU dropped ex-7? Doesn't look all that dead to me?

nor to some of us.
It would be nice to better the best.
And don't give me that crap about a stopped clock being right once a day. (not you red wagon)

According to Levi, the models are maybe coming around to persistence.

Quoting Chicklit:

The models were showing zero development for TD7.
It's in the headlines. Dr. Masters' blog, NHC 2 p.m. Discussion...Kman has been pointing out its persistence.

hmm so very true

Quoting Patrap:
TD 7 still lurks..

Lurk-Caster

: )

You well may be RIGHT wonderkidcayman! There I said it. :)

Quoting Tribucanes:
wunderkidcayman must be thrilled. He's been saying TD07 would be making a comeback since they declassified it.

Before they declassified it... lol

Quoting aquak9:
The last time Doc declared a system dead:

Update on remains of TD 10
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:40 PM EDT on August 22, 2005 +0

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever

well I think we all know what happened. Ya woulda thought the good Dr would've learned a lesson- never ever EVER call a system dead.

Just hope the outcome isn't similar!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Way too many. I need to get a life. XD

What's wrong with wx obs as a daily hobby - weather IS daily - and that's what Edison did for years on end, so we're in good company.

I'd rather learn than let the mainstream media try to un-learn me with their crap. It isn't even edu-crap anymore, just crap.

Quoting Chicklit:

My summer is ending as we blog...boo hoo

Sorry.

Yeah that was some cold front that came through south MS.We got down to 75 degrees for lows and in the 90/s now.According to WU local thats about what we will get out of this artic outbreak this weekend.Hey pat hope you did not freeze with this last front lol.Through pushing in to central gulf this time year?Priceless.Only time i ever seen that it turned charlie ENE into south Florida, not striaght to Mexico.Dont freeze at the dome friday night Pat.

I never said it would one way or another. Interesting to see if the NHC today mentions that very real possibility that Levi mentioned.

Quoting redwagon:

What's wrong with wx obs as a daily hobby - weather IS daily - and that's what Edison did for years on end, so we're in good company.

I'd rather learn than let the mainstream media try to un-learn me with their crap. It isn't even edu-crap anymore, just crap.

+1000

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Yeah that was some cold front that came through south MS.We got down to 75 degrees for lows and in the 90/s now.According to WU local thats about what we will get out of this artic outbreak this weekend.Hey pat hope you did not freeze with this last front lol.Through pushing in to central gulf this time year?Priceless.Only time i ever seen that it turned charlie ENE into south Florida, not striaght to Mexico.Dont freeze at the dome friday night Pat.

Hey, FAN... howareya doing? Besides cold...

Quoting Tribucanes:
You well may be RIGHT wonderkidcayman! There I said it. :)

I knew it lol I tell you it happens to me alot eveyone call a system dead or doing something I see it doing else I strongly think it will I having to be persistent everyone says I'm hypecasting or wishcasting with what I am saying and the bam it does it and I win hmm well I guess it one more for my leaderboard lol

Quoting Tribucanes:
You well may be RIGHT wonderkidcayman! There I said it. :)

What? The first post I see is this! I guess I better get busy reading back!

Already past my longitude, looks like no squally weather for me...

Quoting aquak9:
The last time Doc declared a system dead:

Update on remains of TD 10
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:40 PM EDT on August 22, 2005 +0

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever

well I think we all know what happened. Ya woulda thought the good Dr would've learned a lesson- never ever EVER call a system dead.

I meant under 'tropical weather' ex-7 isn't listed. Which doesn't mean Dr. Jeff de-listed it, but maybe the NHC did and WU software is not getting any info about ex-7.

Quoting icmoore:


What? The first post I see is this! I guess I better get busy reading back!

Didn't have to read very far back LOL!

Quoting JLPR2:
Already past my longitude, looks like no squally weather for me...

Yeah,last night I thought we would get some today but nada.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Before they declassified it... lol

Just hope the outcome isn't similar!

yeah well I did not see it degenerating at first but laterone I saw it and the I still said it will make a comeback

Quoting aquak9:
The last time Doc declared a system dead:

Update on remains of TD 10
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:40 PM EDT on August 22, 2005 +0

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever

well I think we all know what happened. Ya woulda thought the good Dr would've learned a lesson- never ever EVER call a system dead.

Yup... TD10 became TD 12. TD 12 became Tropical Storm heading for Flordia named............. Katrina. TS Katrina went on to be a major hurricane Katrina, killing 2000 people and destroyed Louisiana and Mississippi.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Why is my internet always this lousy on Sunday afternoons???

Who is your provider?

Well, sometimes you just have to let it go... if it's dead, well, it's dead. But it's also important to make sure it's not just drugged or holding its breath....

LOL

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I knew it lol I tell you it happens to me alot eveyone call a system dead or doing something I see it doing else I strongly think it will I having to be persistent everyone says I'm hypecasting or wishcasting with what I am saying and the bam it does it and I win hmm well I guess it one more for my leaderboard lol

You lose..If I recall you said regeneration would occur south of Puerto Rico? well it's still a tropical wave the NHC gives it only a 10% chance of redevelopment and looking at WV loops dry air is all over the central caribbean and it still looks to be getting sheared a bit as cloud tops seem to be blowing NE...if ANY regeneration occurs it would be in the NW caribbean or southern GOM. I admire your persistance though

Quoting PedleyCA:


Who is your provider?

Our local company is Cable and Wireless.

Quoting GPTGUY:



You lose..If I recall you said regeneration would occur south of Puerto Rico? well it's still a tropical wave the NHC gives it only a 10% chance of redevelopment and looking at WV loops dry air is all over the central caribbean and it still looks to be getting sheared a bit as cloud tops seem to be blowing NE...if ANY regeneration occurs it would be in the NW caribbean or southern GOM. I admire your persistance though

Actually he has been saying closer to JA for quite a while... and NOT talking about it regenerating S of PR...

400. BahaHurican 5:09 PM EDT on August 12, 2012
This is getting to be redikilus...