A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.
Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.
Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.
Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.
Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.
Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.
A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.
Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.
Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.
Jeff Masters
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of
smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...
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There's some sort of Circulation that they passed to the south of... Not sure... If they gonna go back and investigate that or not.
Click my handle and read/watch my blog if you would like to see the scientific reasoning behind my forecast. A couple of models are not everything. We've learned that lesson many times.
Quoting aussiecold:
753. Chiggy 7:11 PM GMT on August 20, 2012 0
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Tampa say hi to Issac.
Well, if it is showing hitting close to Tampa this far out then we ALL know that's not going to happen - when was the last time Tampa had a direct hit...?
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1946!actually the 1924 storm came closest, and that went in at tarpon springs to our north
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 8763
he did ask for last direct hit in tampa area ,no for the closest one .....1851,1924,1946,,,and then 120 miles south Charley in 2005
240 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012
AMZ550-552-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064 -141-144-147-202030-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
240 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012
.NOW...
THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM WEST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER LAKE...INLAND VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AND INTO COASTAL VOLUSIA...NORTH
BREVARD COUNTIES AND INTO SOUTH BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY REACH SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES TOWARD SUNSET. LOCATIONS FROM THE VILLAGES TO LEESBURG...CLERMONT...THE THEME PARKS IN SOUTHWEST ORANGE COUNTY TO NORTH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND EAST TO DELAND...SANFORD...BITHLO...NARCOOSSEE AND YEEHAW JUNCTION IN NORTHEAST OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST DAYTONA BEACH TO CAPE CANAVERAL THEN SOUTH TO SEBASTIAN INLET LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...WITH INCREASING FLASH RATES AS THE STORMS INTENSIFY ALONG THE COAST...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP
It's gonna be rockin' and rollin' over here along the coast this afternoon.
Not me! In fact this season I decided to start adding storms to our "Infamous Storms" section by remembering Cleo and Dora, which took a similar path to Beryl. My Mother went thru Cleo as a teenager so it's one (of many) of the storms I used to hear about growing up:
Remembering Hurricane Cleo
I think looking back at some of the lesser known, but regionally significant, storms is very interesting.
Not even close, SE MI. Never been in a hurricane or TS. Thats just where I think 94L will go for now.
Levi, don't take it personal. There are trolls who want to stir the pot and there are some folks that are mad because you are forecasting a storm not to come on their direction - and by the way, you are an excellent forecaster. But the last time I checked you don't control the weather and these storms will go wherever they want regardless of yours or anyone else's forecast.
Yeah I kind of messed up the latitude values in my head and thought they hit the "center" but they didn't yet. Could still be some easterlies there.
Nope, can't figure it out. No ATCF update, but Computer Hurricane Guidance did update. No 18Z model plots from any sites that I can find, yet.
That looks really threatening and ugly at once.
Euro 216 hrs.
Euro 240 hrs.
LinkWV Loop 95L Floater
Don't know if it's an optical illusion, but 95L looks like it's getting drawn into the trough.
Not sure; which time? lol
gives me the willies....
I hope they don't find a closed COC
Possibly... Though it would surprise me if it was fully closed at this time...
You could see the NHC bump this up to 50% or code red at 8pm though.
Hmmm...I did know Hispaniola has been a TS and Hurricane killer (most of the time), or at least a Mike Tyson upper cut to the core and was curious about weaker systems like TD and weak TS's.
Thanks for the response.
That's a lot of energy.
sorry have to post it again.
awesome.
do you see the trough lifting out then a high building back in forcing possible Isaac westward? I thought I remember some of the meteorologists indicating a more zonal flow later in the forecast period, thanks
95w 25n looks like the spinner shifted ne since this morn????
I've said it numerous times a piece of the trough over the east right now breaks off by Friday and moves SW into the Gulf creating a NW steering and the a ridge builds on top of 94L and sends it west into the Gulf.
I agree this thing looks like a stretch blob instead of a stretch limo wanting to drive from one coast to the other!
Nothing against Levi, and going out on a limb, but thats because he can go out on a limb and are no consequences if he is right or wrong, except to fellow bloggers. Credibility is the name of the game when you get to TV or NHC. This is why the NHC and most TV mets are conservative. You can't go out on a limb then realize something has drastically changed then back pedal only to have something flip back.
I don't know, I think Southeast
I don't know, I think Southeast
Click image for Levi's Recon page.
If some people want to complain about him posting links to his site, then I'll post them for him!
Oh please...Rob Fowler does it all the time...
well i found this...and the Last one to hit Tampa was 1846..flooded the city with storm surge..BUT..the very Lasy hurricane to hit tampa bay was..1921.............The last hurricane to hit Tampa Bay roared through in October 1921, causing widespread damage and a storm surge of 10.5 feet. The center of the storm came ashore in northern Pinellas County, near Tarpon Springs. In Tampa, water swept across DeSoto Park and over the seawall along Bayshore Boulevard. There were numerous reports of debris high in treetops the next day.
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Go to Dr Masters's blogs off two weeks and you will see ,i thought same than you just right before ,if your user id means to live in Largo ,i live in St Pete and for sure im older than you areso i do know about Tampa area very well .thanks
Looks like a lot or rain for somebody.
I second that Levi. I appreciate you time and work.
Well I do have a cone which is meant to illustrate the uncertainty that I have. However, you are right, and obviously the NHC doesn't even have to make a forecast until the system develops. Technically the NHC goes out on a limb every time they make a 5-day forecast though.
Viewing: 851 - 901
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