Hurricane Hunters find tropical storm winds in TD 9
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are in Tropical Depression Nine, and have discovered a region of 40 - 45 mph winds at the surface, using their SFMR instrument. Flight level winds at their 1000 foot altitude spiked as high as 49 mph. The surface pressure was 1005 mb, a typical one for a weak tropical storm. Based on these measurements, it is highly likely that NHC will name this Tropical Storm Isaac at 5 pm EDT. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with development, allowing only a few clumps of heavy thunderstorms to fire up near TD 9's center, as seen on visible satellite loops. These loops also show some arc-shaped low clouds expanding away from the heavy thunderstorm area on the south side of the center, showing that TD 9 is ingesting dry air that is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts, robbing the storm of moisture and energy. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that an upper level outflow channel has opened to the southwest, and another channel is attempting to open up to the north. A large clump of heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 9 continues to compete for moisture, and is interfering with the low level inflow and upper level outflow of the storm. The center of TD 9 will pass about 50 miles to the north of buoy 41101 near midnight tonight. The next hurricane hunter mission into TD 9 is scheduled for 2 am Wednesday, and there will be a new mission launched every six hours. The NOAA jet is first scheduled to fly into the storm on Thursday afternoon, to do a large-scale dropsonde mission to aid model forecasts.
Figure 1. Satellite image of TD 9 and 96L taken at 10:45 am EDT August 21, 2012. The two storms are connected by a thin line of low clouds. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.
Intensity forecast for TD 9
The latest 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 28°C today to 29°C by Wednesday afternoon, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period. The low wind shear and warm waters will favor strengthening. The main impediment to development through Wednesday will be dry air to the north, though the storm will also have trouble separating from the clump of thunderstorms to its southeast. I expect that TD 9 will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday. The official NHC forecast is of a 60 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday evening; I put the most likely range of strengths for TD 9 Wednesday evening at 50 - 60 mph. Once TD 9 enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to a hurricane. Intensity forecasts 4 - 5 days out are low in skill, though, and it would not be a surprise at all to see TD 9 struggle like so many other storms have over the past two years, and remain a tropical storm over the next five days. Conversely, rapid intensification into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now, as the official NHC is suggesting may happen, would also not be a surprise.
Figure 2. Daily Oceanic Heat Content or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for TD 9. The forecast points are from the 11 am EDT NHC advisory, and the 24 hour forecast point shown here is for 8 pm EDT Wednesday. For tropical cyclones in favorable environmental conditions for intensification (i.e., vertical wind shear less than 15 kt, mid-level relative humidity >50 %, and warm SSTs [i.e., >28.5C]) and with intensities less than 80kt, values of ocean heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm^2 (yellow and warmer colors) have been shown to promote greater rates of intensity change. TD 9 will be crossing into such a region early Wednesday morning, and will enter a region of very high TCHP south of Hispaniola on Friday morning (the 72 hour forecast point.) Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
Latest model runs for TD 9
The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs for TD 9 are fairly unified for the coming three days, showing a west to west-northwest track to a point just south of Hispaniola. Most of the models then predict a more west-northwest track across Southwest Haiti and into eastern Cuba, as TD 9 responds to a small trough of low pressure over the Southeast U.S. A notable exception is our best-performing model, the ECMWF, which keeps TD 9 south of Hispaniola, and takes the storm more to the west over Jamaica by Saturday, and then into the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba by next Tuesday. We'll have to wait another day to see where the center of TD 9 consolidates before judging which model solution is likely to be correct; reformations of the center closer to bursts of heavy thunderstorm often cause the center point to shift around in the early stages of development, leading to large changes in the forecast track many days later. TD 9 is a threat to affect Tampa during the Republican National Convention, August 27 - 30. I blogged about the climatological chances of a hurricane causing an evacuation of Tampa during the convention in a post last week, putting the odds at 0.2%. The odds in the current situation are higher, probably near 2%. It would take a "perfect storm" sort of conditions to all fall in place to bring TD 9 to the doorstep of Tampa as a hurricane during the convention, but that is one of the possibilities the models have been suggesting could happen.
Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic about 550 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 mph. This disturbance has an impressive amount of spin, as seen on visible satellite loops, and a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing. The storm is under a light 5 - 10 knots of wind shear. Given that TD 9 has moistened up the atmosphere ahead of 96L, this disturbance should have less of a problem with dry air. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Thursday afternoon. This disturbance will track nearly due west the next three days, then is expected to turn more to the west-northwest late this week, bringing it close to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday.
Disturbance 95L in the Gulf of Mexico near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) is in the Gulf of Mexico, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC downgraded the chances of 95L developing to 20%. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon was cancelled. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does not show any organization to the precipitation echoes and visible satellite loops show that 95L is small and disorganized. The computer models show that 95L should drift westwards, and may move over Mexico on Wednesday.
I'll have a new post in the morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Sorry I just took it like that. Didn't mean any disrespect! Its just that I've read so much about people begging for a hurricane to hit an island, especially Hispaniola, so a system weakens that it just makes me angry. At the end of the day someone is still getting hit by this so, yeah.
I'll just ride it out here in PR. Sorry once again!
Well Wash;
You have been raving about Issac for about 4 weeks now and as you seem to have got him just where you didn't want him!
Then maybe you might have taken on a bit more than you can chew here, or the rest of us for that matter!
Time to nail up the windows and bring all the things that can blow away cos this might just be a bit of a nasty thing?
Hoping you all can say safe with these problematical times.
No. You're wrong. I'm bringing out the DOOM meter.
DOOM, guys. DOOOOOOM!
ABNT20 KNHC 212345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES EAST OF
GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING NEAR A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
It depends on whether you want to define 300 miles 5 days out as a complete bust? That's just outside the NHC's normal 5 day error.
What DefCon level are we at?
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES EAST OF
GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING NEAR A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
8:00 PM AST Tue Aug 21
Location: 15.5°N 54.9°W
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
what did i tell you WxGeekVA 15.5N :) im just that good
Yes.
LOL, when you said morning I was thinking this morning it was quiet, even had people in talking. Then I remembered 'my' morning is generally from 4:30 to about 6:00 am, much earlier than most. *G*
E....yes GO Ernesto!! Oh...errrrm....
Well call me mean or heartless but I am hoping for fast intensification tonight or continued sloppy all the way to Mexico. SW Fl here.
I wouldn't be making fun of Levi, Drak, you had it going to the Central Gulf Coast. Lol.
I did too, but I'm not an expert like you two.
*whistles*
Don't get your panties in a wad. I lived through Andrew. After Katrina in Miami, there were hundreds lining up for free ice. It was shameful. Katrina in Miami was a nothing storm and yet people were not prepared. Try going through 3 months without electricity and tell me about destruction. This storm is forecast to be only a cat 1 storm. Granted, it could be much stronger, but the point I was making is people will line up for anything fee simply because it is free.
Ok, thanks for that.
96L should become TD by 5am tomorrow morning
95L sould be down to 0% at 2am
Yes, indeed, I've been here since 2004, and seen many iterations. You know it's geting bad when everything is in bold with lots of exclamation points!!! Can't remember the total number of cities/islands that were going to be crushed/flooded/swept away, but it's been a lot. :)
it was vicious yesterday and today..and yeah it was well after 6am..I guess Juan Valdez wasnt having it this morning and he bailed..
You're not heartless. You're human.
I had it going into the central Gulf too as a hurricane, don't feel bad. :(
C. JFV/ LBAR
split it up the middle and you probably have a superior forcast
And the people are at fault? The kids? Mothers? The generation of kids being born has no fault. What you are saying is that if some bad apples make mistakes, then they deserve what they will be getting? They haven't had political stability, not everywhere is a haven of political correctness, that doesn't mean thousands have to die. Very shortsighted StormJunkie
It's my forecast.
Pinellas Park has already seen 2 1/2 inches of rain. "We've also seen rainfall reports of 2.5 to 3 inches in southern Pinellas County," Clay said.
"The ground is more saturated there from yesterday's rain," Bay News 9 Meteorologist Diane Kacmarik said earlier Tuesday. "The rain developed north of Tampa, but has since spread out over much of the Bay area."
A Flood Watch is in effect for Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk and Hillsborough Counties through Wednesday.
Never sure if Drakoen side with any model?
B gfs
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