As per the latest NHC forecast track, it appears Gamma has been nothing but a tease. The system is barely holding on to its tropical storm status and is not expected to intensify any due to strong shear that is only expected to increase further. Deep convective has greatly diminished as per the lastest satellite imagery.
The official track of the system takes it very gradually east-northeast, and then curves it even further towards the east-southeast. It appears that no large landmasses will be effecting by the system as it moves through the Caribbean. Some areas of heavy rain can be expected, however, as local regions of deep convection persist.
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Does anyone know how the Carolina Panthers did today?
I'm sorry the Bills lost Billsfan unless they were playing Carolina..lol:)
yes..ty..I just got my little girl ready for bed but she keeps getting up so Ill probably have to go in a minute:)
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warm-core from FSU
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closed circulation from QuikSCAT
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tropical?
I havent seen the Navy honestly butthe NHC using the dvorik satellitte estimates this far out and the "T" numbers equate to certain wind speeds..when they reach the equivilent of 25 knots or 30 mph..it will become a depression if its warm core. You can have a depresion with winds pretty far from center as was the case with Gamma as a 45 mph storm before it dissipated. The main thing the NHC looks for isn't quick flare up of convection but rather consistency meaning deep convection persistent for more than 6 hours for example.
you seem to know quite a bit already.:)
Do you know of any places to get Dvorak numbers?
+
warm-core from FSU
+
closed circulation from QuikSCAT
=
tropical?
Subtropical. There isn't deep convection fully surrounding the center yet.
Link
Hope this helps.
This is one of my favorite links.
Anyways, I will go check out your comment David sorry I miseed it. brb.
Heres a link to the low centered in the gulf moving generally NE with the trailing cold front. It appears that the trailing front it whats going to cross your area and bring possible thunderstorms which could bring some strong gusty winds. YOu should get some decent rain from this and I suspect winds no greater than 40 mph so I think the tarps should hold. However, I am not too familiar with how much those tarps can handle. Whats yor best guess if I may ask?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
As you can see more clearly on this visible satellite loop. the circulation center is less defined than earlier today as it moves in a general NE direction toward the Cedar Key area. Billsfan, you will get most of your action from the trailing cold front digging down behind the low moving SE about at your latitude and moving into and through the Eastern Gulf right now.
Right now, it doesn't look like its gonna be a huge problem for the Fl. east coast unless it strengthens rapidly which in turn would enhance the thunderstorm development with the trailing front and could produce stronger winds. I think the last I saw winds were only expected to be in the 30 mph range but that can all change..so its best to watch it closely.
All that being said...the strong cold front you see moving SE wil move through your area during the day tomorrow most likely and will produce some strong straighline winds similar to most fronts except this could bring gusts approaching 40 mph as it appears now. If this front moves through and combines with some warm moist air from off the warmer Atlantic..the contrast in temperatures could enhance thunderstorm develoment and mean an increased threat for weak tornadoes below F1 intensity. If you get a tornado..I'm afraid the tarps won't hold but I don't think you will see that, I hope not at least. All in all, I think you will be fine.:)
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