Gamma Dying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:51 AM GMT on November 20, 2005

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As per the latest NHC forecast track, it appears Gamma has been nothing but a tease. The system is barely holding on to its tropical storm status and is not expected to intensify any due to strong shear that is only expected to increase further. Deep convective has greatly diminished as per the lastest satellite imagery.
The official track of the system takes it very gradually east-northeast, and then curves it even further towards the east-southeast. It appears that no large landmasses will be effecting by the system as it moves through the Caribbean. Some areas of heavy rain can be expected, however, as local regions of deep convection persist.

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407. TampaSteve
4:50 PM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser wrote:
=====
13 / 0430 22.7 82.6 966 105 landfall on south coast of Cuba
near Playa del Cajio
13 / 1945 26.6 82.2 941 130 landfall near Cayo Costa, FL, and
minimum pressure
13 / 2045 26.9 82.1 942 125 Landfall near Punta Gorda, FL
14 / 1400 33.0 79.4 992 70 landfall near Cape Romain, SC
14 / 1600 33.8 78.7 997 65 landfall near North Myrtle Beach, SC

the winds are listed in knots...i knot equals 1.15 mph.
So 130 knots was 150 mph and the 125 knots was 145 mph. I hope this helps..goodnight Boldman and David.:)
=====

That's Charley, right??? Yup...the eye of Charley went right up Charlotte Harbor, so it maintained its maximum intensity all the way into the Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte areas. Charley was also moving at over 20 mph, so the right-side eyewall was pushing winds above 160 mph over that area. There were recorded wind gusts of 174 mph in Punta Gorda. My in-laws live in PG, and my wife and I went down there the Sunday after the storm. We were utterly awestruck by the devastation. Their house survived, but sadly, many of their neighbors weren't so lucky. Thankfully, the storm was compact and didn't spend too much time at Cat 4, so there was no appreciable storm surge...a typical Cat 4 surge (15-20 feet) would have inundated much of PG completely...many parts sit only about 10 feet above sea level.

When Charley hit that Friday the 13th, it was one of the biggest news stories of the year in and of itself. Little did we know at the time that it was just the opening act in a two-year procession of storms unprecedented in the history of the United States.

It's been a crazy two years, that's for sure...glad this one finally seems to be over...let's hope next season is at least a little quieter...
406. roatangardener
1:08 PM GMT on November 21, 2005
thanks hurricanechaser.. i guess i just need someone to tell me that this hurricane season is over and the sun will come out again. if you can believe it its still raining here. that will make the 6th day without a break.
Member Since: October 29, 2005 Posts: 54 Comments: 198
405. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
6:24 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser ok then do what you can they see to put them more out in the storm then the weather ch dos
404. hurricanechaser
6:24 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
I think I will do the same myself. I hope everyone has a great night a good day tomorrow. Hopefully the Low in the Gulf and the trailing Cold front won't cause too much trouble for any of us.
403. hurricanechaser
6:22 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
ok David..nice talking to you as always..I hope you rest well and have a good day tomorrow.
402. hurricanechaser
6:21 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Not any from CNN. Honestly...I have found the best coverage to be from Fox News and MSNBC during hurricane landfalls. Of course, I do free-lance work for Fox News so I might be a little biased.:)
401. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
6:20 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser well i am off to bed now got to get somd zzzzz
400. hurricanechaser
6:19 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
My wife recorded the weather channel footage from about 330pm top 545 pm that day Charley hit. The storm came ashore between those times.
399. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
6:17 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser and did you get any from cnn
398. hurricanechaser
6:17 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Billsfan,

All that being said...the strong cold front you see moving SE wil move through your area during the day tomorrow most likely and will produce some strong straighline winds similar to most fronts except this could bring gusts approaching 40 mph as it appears now. If this front moves through and combines with some warm moist air from off the warmer Atlantic..the contrast in temperatures could enhance thunderstorm develoment and mean an increased threat for weak tornadoes below F1 intensity. If you get a tornado..I'm afraid the tarps won't hold but I don't think you will see that, I hope not at least. All in all, I think you will be fine.:)
397. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
6:12 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser ho did you have from twc that did the live up date from hurricane C
396. hurricanechaser
6:12 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Im sorry David not with Charley.
395. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
6:11 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser do you have any of him be for he let off the air
394. hurricanechaser
5:58 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Actually I don't have coverage of Jim Cantore in Florida last year. HIs transmission was cut off as the storm was moving inland.
393. hurricanechaser
5:57 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
I need to clarify..front moving SE....low moving NE...
Right now, it doesn't look like its gonna be a huge problem for the Fl. east coast unless it strengthens rapidly which in turn would enhance the thunderstorm development with the trailing front and could produce stronger winds. I think the last I saw winds were only expected to be in the 30 mph range but that can all change..so its best to watch it closely.
392. hurricanechaser
5:54 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Link

As you can see more clearly on this visible satellite loop. the circulation center is less defined than earlier today as it moves in a general NE direction toward the Cedar Key area. Billsfan, you will get most of your action from the trailing cold front digging down behind the low moving SE about at your latitude and moving into and through the Eastern Gulf right now.
391. hurricanechaser
5:47 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
390. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
5:46 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser how did jim cantore from the weather ch do in hurricane C of last year?
389. hurricanechaser
5:46 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
oopss..forgot to give you the link..LOL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
388. hurricanechaser
5:45 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Hey Billsfan,

Heres a link to the low centered in the gulf moving generally NE with the trailing cold front. It appears that the trailing front it whats going to cross your area and bring possible thunderstorms which could bring some strong gusty winds. YOu should get some decent rain from this and I suspect winds no greater than 40 mph so I think the tarps should hold. However, I am not too familiar with how much those tarps can handle. Whats yor best guess if I may ask?
387. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
5:38 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
this want to see if you got back to him on that
386. hurricanechaser
5:37 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
I do have a little Katrina footage as she was making landfall from TWC as I mentioned in SE La. and I have alot as Katrina was out over the gulf up until I had to leave to drive more than 15 hours to MS. to intercept the storm.
385. billsfaninsofla
5:37 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Chaser....hope I catch ya before you go....I'm hearing we may have bad weather in Broward County (Fort Lauderdale) tomorrow.any insight? (we with tarped roofs need to know)..thanks...... and btw...both of our teams lost today
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5469
384. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
5:36 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser yes
383. hurricanechaser
5:31 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Hey David..I just read the 1:29 pm comment on your blog, are you refering to Butterflies inquiry regarding Katrina footage?
382. hurricanechaser
5:28 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
I need to corect myself..that reference to Willtell was very unnecessary and I sincerely apologize "only" once for it:)
381. hurricanechaser
5:23 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
The most humerous thing I heard today was Willtell saying Lefty knew more about storms than I ever would..LOL

Anyways, I will go check out your comment David sorry I miseed it. brb.
380. hurricanechaser
5:21 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
The reason you don't see any for the large low pressure in the East Central atlantic is because its "too weak" to be measured on this scale and if theres no T number its not strong enough to be classified...

This is one of my favorite links.
379. hurricanechaser
5:18 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Here you go... the dvorak classifications which dictate true intensity when recons not out there in the storm.

Link

Hope this helps.
378. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
5:16 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hey hurricanechaser
377. hurricanechaser
5:15 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Its not subtropical quite yet...its still a cold core low at present. HOwever, the transition is certainly on his way to subtropical status and if the winds can achieve 25 knots or 30 mph we will have at the minimum a subtropical depression.
376. hurricanechaser
5:13 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Ok Im bk..sorry guys..
375. theboldman
4:58 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
oh dcw
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
374. dcw
4:50 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
30-35 knots from the navy image names and QuikSCAT (though somewhat away from the center)
+
warm-core from FSU
+
closed circulation from QuikSCAT
=
tropical?

Subtropical. There isn't deep convection fully surrounding the center yet.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
373. igotheweatha
4:36 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
yes your right chaser
372. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:30 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
any one think that we can make it to the Z storm
371. AySz88
4:23 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
I know how to research info, but that's about it. :p Not trained in this and still a newbie, after all.

Do you know of any places to get Dvorak numbers?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
370. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:20 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser did you see my last post?
369. hurricanechaser
4:19 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
youre very welcome AYSZ...
you seem to know quite a bit already.:)
368. hurricanechaser
4:19 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Thanks Trouper for the score..although I would've prefered better news..lol:)
367. hurricanechaser
4:17 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Sorry Boldman..Im a little SLOW tonight... I assume you have two screen names now?
366. AySz88
4:16 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Thanks for the info, hurricanechaser.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
365. hurricanechaser
4:15 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Hey AYSZ,

I havent seen the Navy honestly butthe NHC using the dvorik satellitte estimates this far out and the "T" numbers equate to certain wind speeds..when they reach the equivilent of 25 knots or 30 mph..it will become a depression if its warm core. You can have a depresion with winds pretty far from center as was the case with Gamma as a 45 mph storm before it dissipated. The main thing the NHC looks for isn't quick flare up of convection but rather consistency meaning deep convection persistent for more than 6 hours for example.
364. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:12 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
hurricanechaser would you go to my blog and go down to 1:29 am

363. theboldman
4:07 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
yes i am duh lol never mind
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
362. AySz88
4:06 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
30-35 knots from the navy image names and QuikSCAT (though somewhat away from the center)
+
warm-core from FSU
+
closed circulation from QuikSCAT
=
tropical?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
361. hurricanechaser
4:05 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
LOl..Im confused Boldman..are you refering to Igotheweather?
360. theboldman
4:04 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
gosh keeps getting up ill have to ask my mom if i was like that lol thats no fun lol
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
359. Trouper415
4:04 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
panthers for beat by the bears defense 13-3.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
358. theboldman
4:03 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
you are welcome mouseybabe
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
357. hurricanechaser
4:03 AM GMT on November 21, 2005
Hey Igot,

yes..ty..I just got my little girl ready for bed but she keeps getting up so Ill probably have to go in a minute:)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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