Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
|
| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:33 PM GMT on February 02, 2006 | +0 |

| Permalink | A A A |
|
|
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
|
Tropical Blogs
Tropical Weather Stickers®
Page: 1 | 2 — Blog Index
As for getting a tropical or sub-tropical storm in the eastern Atlanta, the models have diverged some. GFS has it going tropical & looking quite impressive around 144hrs. The Ukmet~ couldn't find a 12Z run going out that far, the 00Z has it staying a broad perhaps not ever full formed sub-tropical(radical change from yesterday's 12Zrun), being torn up by shear in 144hrs. The Nogaps seems about the same as the consensis of yesterday, now somewhere in the middle, with perhaps a weak sub-tropical going TS forming by 144hrs.
The President hyping switchgrass as an alternative is the green light for increased oil speculation. What a jokester.
I can just see him snickering.
Four of the top recruiting analysts rate the nation's top 10 classes on college football signing day:
Max Emfinger
1. Florida
2. Florida State
3. USC
4. Texas
5. Notre Dame
6. LSU
7. Alabama
8. Penn State
9. Ohio State
10. Georgia
Rivals.com
1. USC
2. Florida
3. Florida State
4. Georgia
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. LSU
8. Notre Dame
9. Oklahoma
10. Auburn
Tom Lemming/CSTV
1. Florida
2. USC
3. Notre Dame
4. Texas
5. Penn State
6. LSU
7. Georgia
8. Michigan
9. Florida State
10. Oklahoma
Allen Wallace/Scout.com
SuperPrep Magazine
1. Florida
2. USC
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. LSU
7. Ohio State
8. Michigan
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma
Gators are #1 in 3 out of 4 of the Top 10 rankings and #2 in the other.
GO GATORS!!!
Still no 12Z ukmet~ 18Z GFS still shows intensity, just ends a little more north & east. Being middle of feb, don't give it much of a chance.
i see things on the 18Z run as looking like some winter will finally be back uphere to the NE. I noticed that starting a few days ago hen some ofthe models were finally starting to print out the 490dkm and 480dkm 1000-500hPa thicknesses over the canadian arctic. for most of the winter so far, they were nowhere to be found in the NWT or Nunavut. Once they started appearing, I knew winter was in sight, so I think phil may be right.
Speaking of Punxetawney Phil, how many people here have actually been on top of Gobbler's Knob on Feb 2? 10 years ago, it was my second time on the knob in two years. That's when it expanded from about 3000 people accomidated in 1995 to 12000 people accomidated in 1996, if my memory serves me right. I have to admit that those experiences were definately some of the biggest parties I was ever at. And It's a good thing Phil isn't brought onto the knob until right before the ceremony itself, because wth all the blaring music and the partiers from all the local colleges, I don't know how he wouldn't have the **** scared out of him with all that going on. Between that and all the events leading up to that day and right after that day, it's definately a different world.
I wouldn't call it mandatory by any means, but I sort of consider it something of an unofficial pilgrimage that forecasters should expereince at least once.
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. A POWERFUL STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WET WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY HIGH
WINDS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH MAINLY NORTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...MOST ATTENTION THIS SHIFT HAS GONE TOWARD THE
DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE
THE STRONGEST WIND EVENT THIS SEASON...AND MAYBE THE STRONGEST SINCE
1999.
THE PRELIMINARIES TONIGHT...THE JET STREAK OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE NORTH TONIGHT. THUS THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PUGET SOUND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE JET STREAK DEPARTS.
THE BIG KAHUNA...SO FAR THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS STORM. GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST AND SLOWEST OF THE
MODELS BUT IS STILL THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...
AND UKMET ARE ALL SIMILAR BUT WITH MINOR VARIATIONS. THE NAM HAS
BEEN NOTICABLY SLOWER AND WEAKER...AND TAKES THE LOW INLAND ACROSS
TATOOSH ISLAND RATHER THAN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND. SO
DESPITE THE MODEL CONSISTENCY THESE SMALL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
RAISE DOUBT ON WHETHER A SIGNIFICANT HIGH WIND EVENT WILL
MATERIALIZE OR WHETHER IT WILL JUST BE WINDY. CURRENT TIMING BRINGS
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COAST JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN LOW HITS VANCOUVER ISLAND AROUND 18Z OR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NORMAL SE EXPOSED AREAS...COAST-NW INTERIOR-LAKE
LAWRENCE SHOULD PICK UP WIND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PUGET SOUND AND THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW INCREASE THE S GRADIENT. HAVE INCLUDED
HIGH WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS FORECAST IS MUCH LESS
CERTAIN.
DESPITE THE DOUBT...THE LOCAL STAFF CONCLUSION WAS TO ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT IS A
LEAST A HALF DAY SOONER THAN IS NORMALLY PRUDENT. FACTORS IN FAVOR
WERE THIS BEING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD EVENT AND THAT
WAITING 12 HOURS WOULD PUT THE ISSUANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT DIFFERENT TIMES BEST
APPROACH WAS TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA ALL AT ONCE RATHER
THAN STRING IT OUT PIECEMEAL.
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT HASN'T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TYPICALLY THESE
STRONG SYSTEMS PRODUCE EITHER LOTS OF WIDESPREAD WIND OR LOTS OF
RAIN...RARELY BOTH. THE FRONT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IS RATHER
SKINNY. STILL ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SKOKOMISH BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE POINT NOT ADDRESSED MUCH SO FAR IS SNOW OVER THE CASCADES
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD END UP BEING A HEAVY SNOW EVENT GIVEN 850
MB WEST WINDS 40-50 KT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH TO COVER THIS PERIOD. NAM12 HAS UP TO 2
INCHES OF QPF OVER THE CASCADES FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. KAM
.LONG TERM...THE WEATHER CALMS DOWN. FINALLY. LATEST 18Z GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM THE BRUSHES THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SO IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THE MENTION OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY. GFS HAS STAYED WITH THE BIG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND THE ECMWF HAS JOINED IN. THE ONLY ITEM NOT ADDRESSED
AT THIS POINT IS FOG. THERE WILL BE AREAS DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING
THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED AS THE EVENT DRAWS
NEARER...AND AFTER THE WIND STOPS. KAM
&&
.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO STABILIZE LATE THIS EVENING FOR
DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY AND SHOULD DRY OUT THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS...BUT THEN RAIN
SPREADS INTO SEA-TAC ARND 21Z IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. HANER
Hurricane Force Wind Warning for the United States
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER/OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH
230 PM PST THU FEB 2 2006
.WASHINGTON AND OREGON WATERS FROM 60 NM TO 250 NM OFFSHORE.
PZZ082-030530-
CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE
230 PM PST THU FEB 2 2006
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 20
TO 30 KT LATE...HIGHEST W. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT WITH W SWELL...
HIGHEST NW. RAIN DEVELOPING.
.FRI...S WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 KT...EXCEPT TO 65 KT FAR W
PORTION LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 TO 21 FT E PORTION...AND 21 TO
32 FT W PORTION LATE. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHEST W. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...WINDS BECOMING SW 45 TO 65 KT EARLY...HIGHEST
CENTRAL AND W PARTS. WINDS THEN SHIFTING TO W AND DECREASING TO
40 TO 50 KT TOWARD MORNING...HIGHEST N. SEAS BUILDING TO 28 TO
39 FT...HIGHEST N. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WINDS 35 TO 45 KT EARLY...DECREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 28 TO 37 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST NE.
.SAT NIGHT...W TO SW WINDS DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 17 TO 23 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST E.
.SUN...WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS... EXCEPT S 10 TO
20 KT FAR NW PORTION. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12 FT LATE...IN NW
SWELL.
.MON...WINDS BECOMING N AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT S
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT FAR NW. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 TO 18 FT IN NW
SWELL...HIGHEST NW.
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 10 TO 15 KT FAR NW. SEAS
15 TO 18 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST N.
$$
.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING HIGH WINDS TO PARTS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TODAY...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARD NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE MAIN
LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...SINCE
SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND CHANGES IN STRENGTH CAN HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH OF WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS THOUGH...THE WASHINGTON COAST AND THE
NORTH INTERIOR COULD POSSIBLY HAVE HIGH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE MAIN LOW
MOVES INLAND.
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR COULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA COULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE HIGH WINDS
SATURDAY AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INLAND.
HIGH WINDS ARE SUSTAINED WINDS (LASTING AROUND A MINUTE) OF 40 MPH
OR MORE...OR WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THE WINDS MAY NOT REACH 40
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 58 MPH...BUT THEY MAY BE STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE. WITH THE SOIL STILL RATHER
WET AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON...TREES MAY STILL BE A LITTLE EASIER
TO TOPPLE IN VERY WINDY WEATHER.
vary big storm with 70 to 80mph winds sorry for the long post
now a TORNADO
hmmm what is next
Hopefully winter will kick in with these current predictions.
I am dreading the cold and what looks like snow for our ride down to Chicago Friday afternoon.
Go Warriors! Muahahaa
Giants in 06
Shut up!!
As cruel as it sounds, this tunnel project would never be cost effective; not in money, and in all liklihood, not in human lives. How many mines, how many miners will it take to understand how risky an undertaking such a project would be.
Viewing: 51 - 93
Page: 1 | 2 — Blog Index