Major flooding continues across New Hampshire, southwest Maine, and northeast Massachussetts today, where an additional 1-3 inches of rain has fallen in the past day and another inch is expected today. The culprit "cut off low"--a large low pressure system that got separated from the jet stream--is drifting slowly northeastward, and is expected to leave the area tonight, bringing an end to the heavy rains and the worst of the flooding. However, an active jet stream pattern over the next seven days will continue to bring occasional rain to the area, and area rivers--which are generally five to eight feet above flood stage--will be slow to fall. By next Tuesday, the GFS model is indicating that a more summer-like weather pattern may emerge, with the jet stream retreating northwards and warmer, dryer air moving in.
Figure 1. Rainfall amounts for New England estimated by radar, ending at 10am EDT Monday May 16.
Typhoon Chanchu
The season's first typhoon has continued to weaken, and was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph sustained winds at 8am EDT this morning. Chanchu (which means "pearl" in Chinese), is expected to continue to weaken over the next day due to dry air, cooler ocean temperatures in its path, and interaction with land. The typhoon is expected to spare Hong Kong a direct hit, and come ashore over the Guangdong province on China's eastern coast on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm. This is a far cry from last Friday's intensity forecast, which projected that Chanchu would strike as a Category 5 supertyphoon! Chanchu is yet another example of our poor ability to make accurate long-range hurricane intensity forecasts.
Chanchu delivered a serious blow to the Philippines over the weekend, killing at least 37 and leaving thousands homeless.
Figure 2. Typhoon Chanchu at 5:30 am EDT Tuesday, with 125 mph sustained winds.
My next blog will be Wednesday, when I'll talk more about air pollution, plus the Northeast flooding and Typhoon Chanchu.
Jeff Masters
Normally this river is about 10 feet below the bridge. The pavement across the bridge is about half eroded, the bridge will probably need replacing.
This was taken along Hanson Rd in Chester near the Raymond line. Who knows how deep it is here, but I'm assuming no one will be driving through here for awhile.
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You tell 'em Levi!!
SJ
You did IT again you said "IT WONT AS LONG AS IM HERE I CAN ASSURE YOU OF THAT". See? This is what I am talking about. You are making it look as though you are the best and only one that can warn people in time and properly. If anything I am just keeping people informed about the tropical disturbances in the Caribbean! I am not saying a hurricane is going to hit Florida or anything like that! All I am doing is looking at the areas of disturbed weather and telling people about them so they know what is going on.
Alright ya'll, I have some errands to run, but I will be back later to check in. Please continue to stop by StormJunkie.com. leave any feedback you have in my blog. Please also leave any links to good info, articles, and sites in my blog. Ya'll have been a great help so far.
Thanks ya'll
SJ
"As The Storm Spins..."
Our Intrepid Forecasters Try to Ferret Out
The Location & Motives of the Sinister Alberto...
Tensions Rise, Egos Clash, Rain will Fall.
Will Anyone Perish?? Only The Fishies May Know...
Stay Tuned.
and right now, there really is no chance of tropical development for a while. the big cutoff low is making sure of that.
Who in the world could've misforecast Emily? That was one of the most by-the-book storms ever.
While wunderground does have a search feature and does keep posts, it's annoying to look for them though a 500-comment entry.
Posted By: STORMTOP at 11:52 PM GMT on July 17, 2005.
EMILY WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME A STRONG CAT 4....IF SHE GOES UP THE CENTRAL GULF THE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES THERE...EMILY WILL STRENGTEN TO A CATEGORY 5 ON MONDAY IF THIS HAPPENS..IF SHE TAKES MORE OF A NW COURSE TOWARDS TEXAS SHE WILL NOT STRENGTHEN THE WATER TEMPS ARE AROUND 82 IN THAT AREA OF THE GULF PLUS SHE WOULD MISS THE GULF STREAM...ALSO SHE WILL ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH MIGHT WEAKEN HER FURTHER...
-The ENTIRE forum saw a high to the north of Emily the whole time...Emily was very easy to track beause of it..
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