Major flooding continues across New Hampshire, southwest Maine, and northeast Massachussetts today, where an additional 1-3 inches of rain has fallen in the past day and another inch is expected today. The culprit "cut off low"--a large low pressure system that got separated from the jet stream--is drifting slowly northeastward, and is expected to leave the area tonight, bringing an end to the heavy rains and the worst of the flooding. However, an active jet stream pattern over the next seven days will continue to bring occasional rain to the area, and area rivers--which are generally five to eight feet above flood stage--will be slow to fall. By next Tuesday, the GFS model is indicating that a more summer-like weather pattern may emerge, with the jet stream retreating northwards and warmer, dryer air moving in.
Figure 1. Rainfall amounts for New England estimated by radar, ending at 10am EDT Monday May 16.
Typhoon Chanchu
The season's first typhoon has continued to weaken, and was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph sustained winds at 8am EDT this morning. Chanchu (which means "pearl" in Chinese), is expected to continue to weaken over the next day due to dry air, cooler ocean temperatures in its path, and interaction with land. The typhoon is expected to spare Hong Kong a direct hit, and come ashore over the Guangdong province on China's eastern coast on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm. This is a far cry from last Friday's intensity forecast, which projected that Chanchu would strike as a Category 5 supertyphoon! Chanchu is yet another example of our poor ability to make accurate long-range hurricane intensity forecasts.
Chanchu delivered a serious blow to the Philippines over the weekend, killing at least 37 and leaving thousands homeless.
Figure 2. Typhoon Chanchu at 5:30 am EDT Tuesday, with 125 mph sustained winds.
My next blog will be Wednesday, when I'll talk more about air pollution, plus the Northeast flooding and Typhoon Chanchu.
Jeff Masters
Normally this river is about 10 feet below the bridge. The pavement across the bridge is about half eroded, the bridge will probably need replacing.
This was taken along Hanson Rd in Chester near the Raymond line. Who knows how deep it is here, but I'm assuming no one will be driving through here for awhile.
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‘Hot towers’ above are a sign of stronger winds below
Hot plumes that tower above some hurricanes presage stronger winds at the surface, NASA researchers said Tuesday.
a href="http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/dat
a/anomnight.5.17.2005.gif" target="_blank">2005 SST anomalies for May 17
2006 SST anomalies for May 16
2005 SST anomalies for May 17
2006 SST anomalies for May 16
The 'hot tower' thing is just overshooting cloud tops...been there, done that.
Joe "Head-For-The-Hills" Bastardi??!! LOL
Predict Catastrophic Storms Long Enough,
& Eventually Be Right???
Have a great afternoon guys:) Gotta go do stuff...
you obviously don't know me then...i have never flagged any post on these blogs for any reason. and i would never flag anything for obscenity. considering that you have absolutely no reason to suspect me, i do wonder why you decided that it was me doing it?
i usually don't swear myself on this board b/c it's not appropriate here, but check out the funkbus board if you think i'm some kind of language-policing prude.
funkbus sports board
I have been accused of many things in my life, but never before been accused of being profanity police...if anything my language is usually too salty. You stupid c*&^@#$%^$r....
...i can assure you this will not develop...you need to start watching the gulf for real after may 23...THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN FROM THE STORMTOPS WEATHER SERVICE.001253
Interesting comment by StormTop because this morning my Houston/Galveston NWS office alludes to an easterly wave in the gulf somewhere around this time...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006
.DISCUSSION...
SHOULD BE AN EXTENDED QUIET/DRY PERIOD FOR SE TX WITH TEMPS CLIMB-
ING TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER HERE...
THIS WARM/DRY WX WILL BE CONTINUING. THIS TREND MAY BE EXACERBATED
SOMEWHAT BY THE (PROGGED) APPROACH OF AN ELY WAVE TOWARD THE LOWER
TX COAST. 41
I checked the GFS and MRF runs3 and both indicate a tropical wave of sorts in the southern Gulf of Mexico around May 23rd.
StormTop I know you say you don't believe in computer models but are sure you don't occasionally cheat and take a sneak peak at the extended range forecast models... :)
2341 424 WINNEMUCCA HUMBOLDT NV 4097 11773 (LKN)
Is this a record?
now look at this in 2005 there was a Unnamed Subtropical Storm as well
Here is a link to the NHC archive of 2004 storms.
Off topic disclaimer: Following is off topic, but I can't just let anyone get away with saying Florida is the prettiest state when it's a fact California has it beat by a wide margin!
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