Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I would like to note the record heat expected for the South West this weekend. :-(. There has been a lack of low clouds as of late and looks like the Southwest could be in for a long hot summer.

25-26N 75W!

Anyone who thinks switching to an alternative type of energy will kill the economy is far from correct. The switch to a new type of energy will takes decades to complete, not overnight. If the switch were to take place magically overnight, then there would be huge problems. Hundreds of thousands of people would be out of jobs, there would be billions of dollars of lost revenue, and countless other aspects that would kill the US and global economy. Since the switch will take many years to complete, there will be more than ample time for the US economy and the people who will be affected to make the necessary adjustments. All jobs will be replaced and just as we pay for oil, mandatory taxes could be implimented to suppliment the Government and its bodies of the lost income.

Just as Global Warming will not be solved overnight, neither will the switch to another type of energy.

does anyone know anything about a 'freakishy huge' storm in the south pacific near New Zealand? It was mentioned in the newspaper but id love to hear more expert thoughts on it. It was a cold-core system.

not seeing what you're seeing ProgressivePulse..

JFLORIDA,

I am new at this but it almost looks like that "blob" is actually pulling moisture in from the SE. Am I seeing this right??

Yep, blob is getting that convection even with the nasty shear.

No reason to get bent out of shape about the models not being perfect. They are just models. I do worry a bit about people thinking that just because current models produce long range results within a certain range that we should assume that these for upper and lower bounds for the problem. I think that could be a very harmful assumption.

I think the shear maybe relaxing a little in the NW part of the Bahamas blob, some convection is moving WSW and seems not to be being sheared too much, anyone else see that ?

The tiny circulation the NHC mentioned was upper level and now almost non-existant and dissipating. Still alot of action concentrated around the area, I don't know what is up but I am sure we will know tomorrow. I almost have to say shear got the best of this one, but the convection in the area says no.

Normalguy~ I think we might be seeing it reforming to the SSE like lastnight, just bigger. & it doesn't look like it's gonna loose as much convection, to the NE, as it did lastnight. This is the time of night things get interesting.

Your not wearing on us JFL, glad to see enjoyed the model stuff.

This area is being sheared from the Northwest and from the Southeast. Amidst all of this I see the high level clouds trying to build back to the area of 25n75w or close to.

I think we missed NOAA's outlook for July- Sept


as far as drought Fl & most of the gulf looked good for rain. The drought in Texas looked like bad news...

Too busy debating the cause & not watching the signs. The Saudi's saying continued use of oil like this & the oceans are gonna rise is like Phillip Morris saying you keep smoking these & it could give you lung cancer. Get out of denial your addicted to oil. This isn't the only reason we need to go with a clean source of power & it doesn't really matter which reason we make the change for.

Underneath that mess of crap there is circulation.

sorry I don't know how to post a link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

The ukmet, nam, gfs & cmc 00z runs are out. Has it being sheared up. The cmc is being aggressive on rainfall, in general, like most the map 40+cm. I'm going build an ark, lol, in my dreams. nite all.

No more mention of a closed circulation...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
205 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2006
[...]
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NE GULF. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT N OVER THE W ATLC AND NARROW N OF 23N BETWEEN 71W-76W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N70W SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W-26N70W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N71W TO BEYOND 32N66W.
[...]

Earlier today I thought the high coming off the East Coast would push north of the wave and turn it more west, but the high is more longitudinal-oriented than I thought. Also, that is a very large and impressive ULL off to the NE. The high is bridging the trough that came off the East Coast yesterday. I guess there will be no TD tomorrow, but I'll still be keeping an eye on it.

Also, the convection over the Carolinas didn't hold together and drop SSW like I thought it might. Sorry for the people in South GA and N. FL that need the extra rain.

Lucky for everyone else I don't make these predictions for a living.

Posted By: skeptik at 10:33 PM GMT on June 21, 2006.
The following are all articles that dispute the end results of CO2 emmissions. Copy and paste in google and look at each article if you really want to see both sides of the Global warming debate.

You posted a bunch of liars, crackpots and crooks. Why should anybody think they have a "side", other than stuffing wads of oily money in their SIDE pockets?

Even the UN report that is referenced so often had built in errors in the computer modeling that exagerated a lot of the projections of temperature rise in the past century leading to an accelerating of the problem above what is being seen in real measurements today.

Does this mean I am right and you are wrong for what you believe, no, not really. It simply means that there are two legitimate sides to this and most every other debate and that neither side should be dismissed so casually.

You posted a bunch of liars, crackpots and crooks. Why should anybody think they have a "side", other than stuffing wads of oily money in their SIDE pockets? You know, CRIMIMIAL SCIENCE is also a science -- what ever made you guys think you would get away with this crooked business?

Global Warming:
The Origin and Nature of
the Alleged Scientific Consensus
Richard S. Lindzen

Lindzen was just debunked here in Jeff Master's Blog a few days ago, with a duplicate copy posted on my blog so people don't have to wade through 800 replies to find it. Here's a link:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=36&tstamp=200606
Richard S. Lindzen Facts Found on the Open Public Internet.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 2:17 AM GMT on June 19, 2006

The exact title of the science hoax Lindzen produced was for the "Cooler Heads Coalition", the same people that brought the phoney CEI ads to TV recently. Who ARE these people, and why do they hide behind front organizations connected to organized crime?

Competitive Enterprise Institute : TASSC Michael Fumento, TASSC Steven Milloy
Competitive Enterprise Institute has received $2,005,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
KOCH OIL Funding Competitive Enterprise Institute = $666,420
SCAIFE OIL FORTUNE Funding Competitive Enterprise Institute = $1,800,000
White Star Oil Fortune (Earhart Foundation) Funding Competitive Enterprise Institute = $90,000
OLIN Munitions & Chlorine-DDT Funding Competitive Enterprise Institute = $230,300
Consumer Alert : (a sub-group of Competitive Enterprise Institute) : TASSC Hugh Ellsaesser, TASSC Patrick J. Michaels, TASSC Michael Fumento
Consumer Alert has received $70,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
KOCH OIL Funding Consumer Alert = $10,000
OLIN Munitions & Chlorine-DDT Funding Consumer Alert = $28,000
Cooler Heads Coalition (a sub-group of the National Consumer Coalition which is a sub-group of Consumer Alert which is a sub-group of Competitive Enterprise Institute) : TASSC Patrick J. Michaels
hosted and financed by Consumer Alert, member and organizer of the National Consumer Coalition. The Coalition publishes the bi-weekly "Cooler Heads Newsletter" in conjunction with the Competitve Enterprise Institute. Current members are: 60 Plus Association, The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition (junkscience.com), Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, Americans for Tax Reform, Association of Concerned Taxpayers, Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Capital Research Center, Citizens Against Government Waste, Citizens for a Sound Economy, Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Consumer Alert, Defenders of Property Rights, Foundation for American Liberty, Frontiers of Freedom, Fund for a New Generation, The Heartland Institute, National Center for Policy Analysis, National Center for Public Policy Research, Political Economy Research Center, Public Interest Institute, Small Business Survival Committee, United Seniors Association, and Women for Tax Reform. MOST OF THESE NAMES ARE FRONT OPERATIONS controlled by others on this list.

Settling Global Warming Science
Co-Authored by:S. Fred Singer and David H. Douglass

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=11&tstamp=200606
How to mastermind a felony science fraud : Actual court evidence presented.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 7:34 AM GMT on June 01, 2006

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=10&tstamp=200606
Fred Singer Federal Court Evidence used in trials of the Tobacco Mafia Godfathers
Posted By: ScienceCop at 7:18 AM GMT on June 01, 2006

When Is Global Warming Really a Cooling?
By Roy Spencer :

Partners, writer team Roy Spencer and John Christy fudged numbers for years on their publications of satellite temperatures used widely by the denialists. They got caught by a sharp-eyed investigative reporter, Tim Lambert, who also happens to understand science. They showed either (1) that they are incompentent and not to be trusted, or (2) they are crooks on the take and not to be trusted. Since Christy is associate of many known crooks proved through court evidence, the appearence of crookedness exists. Whether incompetent or rotten, not trustworthy sources.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=561 John Christy's links to crooks.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/index.php?mapid=579
Spencer and Christy's links to crooks.

Hurricanes and Global Warming: Is There a Link?
By George Taylor

http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=912
FACTSHEET: George H. Taylor
ORGANIZATIONS
* Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
* Tech Central Science Foundation or Tech Central Station

Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change : TASSC A. Alan Moghissi
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change has received $90,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
SCAIFE OIL FORTUNE Funding Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change = $100,000

Involved in the OISM Fraud Petition.

Global Warming and Hurricanes: Still No Connection
By Patrick Michaels

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=12&tstamp=200606
Some of the Court Evidence of TASSC Organized Crime naming Patrick J. Michaels.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 7:43 AM GMT on June 01, 2006

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=9&tstamp=200606
Patrick J. Michaels Refuted with Facts and his bias exposed.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 7:04 AM GMT on June 01, 2006

Interview with Dr. William Gray
By James K. Glassman

Gray involved in the APCO Associates (TASSC Criminals) Organized Crime hoax in 2002.
http://www.climatesearch.com/newsDetail.cfm?nwsId=54
Known associate of several organized crime science fraudsters.

Interview with Dr. James O'Brien
By James K. Glassman

James O'Brien investigation pending... his name appears on many known organized crime science fraud websites used in promoting their cause.

Interview with Dr. Roy Spencer
By James K. Glassman

Tech Central Science Foundation or Tech Central Station : TASSC Patrick J. Michaels, TASSC Michael Fumento, TASSC Steven Milloy,
Tech Central Science Foundation or Tech Central Station has received $95,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
KOCH OIL Funding Tech Central Science Foundation = $25,000
NOTE: Because TCS website runs paid commercial advertising, incomes from this is NEVER reported as charitable gifts by either the donor or receiver. The parent to TCS is DCI PR firm, whose incomes are likewise not reported publically, nor do client corporations necessarily report the payments to the public. A lot of EXXON ads run on TCS webpages, perhaps a disguised form of giving as it's doubtful that EXXON needs brand advertising to get people to fill up at the Tech Corner Station -- if internet ads were proven effective there would be EXXON ads everywhere on the net.

Tech Central = DCI = SwiftBoats Vets for Troooooth.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=40
FACTSHEET: James K. Glassman
ORGANIZATIONS
* Tech Central Science Foundation or Tech Central Station
* American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research

American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research has received $1,625,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
KOCH OIL Funding American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research = $50,000
SCAIFE OIL FORTUNE Funding American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research = $6,251,000
White Star Oil Fortune (Earhart Foundation) Funding American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research = $448,800
OLIN Munitions & Chlorine-DDT Funding American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research = $7,022,124
American Enterprise Institute-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies
American Enterprise Institute-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies has received $105,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
OLIN Munitions & Chlorine-DDT Funding Brookings Institution = $1,217,000
KOCH OIL Funding Brookings Institution = $829,400

Haha, nice work there ScienceCop.

Morning all. Looks like some convection may be trying to build over what was the small cyclonic rotation area of the Bahama Blob. We will have to see if this continues through the morning. This system does look much less organized then it did last night. Off to work. I will check in later.

SJ

StormJunkie.com

Posted By: WxDan at 2:48 AM GMT on June 22, 2006.
Since we don't care about opposing views about Global warming, I submit that readers should make their own minds up. Here are a couple of interesting links:

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/cause.htm

TOM HARRIS and his front website canadafreepress.conmen is a LOBBYIST and PR Guy for many oily corporations.

Harris's details were just posted both in Jeff Master's Blog and to avoid wading through 800 replies, was duplicated in ScienceCop Blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=42&tstamp=200606
Reply to Daveg from Jeff Master's Blog of Gore's Movie.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 6:50 AM GMT on June 21, 2006

TOM HARRIS
[LOBBIEST, PR Stooge]
http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm
Tom Harris is mechanical engineer and Ottawa Director of High Park Group, a public affairs and public policy company. He can be reached at lett...@canadafreepress.com

http://www.highparkgroup.com/tharris.htm
Tom Harris , Director, Ottawa Operations
Tom specializes in strategic communication and media relations and has 28 years experience in science and technology in the energy and environment, aerospace and high-tech sectors. He has worked with PRIVATE COMPANIES AND TRADE ASSOCIATIONS TO SUCCESSFULLY POSITION THESE ENTITIES AND THEIR INTERESTS WITH MEDIA AND BEFORE GOVERNMENT COMMITTEES AND REGULATORY BODIES. Tom holds a Bachelor of Engineering (Mechanical) from CARLETON UNIVERSITY and a Master of Engineering (Mechanical - thermo-fluids) from McMaster University.

http://www.highparkgroup.com/team.htm
KNOWN ASSOCIATES: Timothy M. Egan, President, Tom Harris, Director,
Ottawa Operations, Julio Lagos, Director, Regulatory Affairs
Senior Associates: Bernadette Coren, Marlo Lair, Kathleen McGinnis

Timothy M. Egan, has worked as a CONSULTANT in public policy and government relations for over 10 years. He has experience with the public service at the federal, provincial, and municipal levels, and now devotes his time to ON-GOING WORK FOR A RANGE OF CORPORATE CLIENTS ... on influencing public policy, issues advocacy, and fundraising.

Kathleen McGinnis, Senior Associate ... At HPG her practice has included ASSISTING CLIENTS WITH PROMOTIONAL AND POLICY MATERIALS, as well as sector analysis work.

http://www.highparkgroup.com/services.htm
Our Services
We are proud to offer our clients a wide range of services, including:
* policy and strategic consulting
* issues management !!!!!!!!!! Global Warming Issues, we see....
* DIRECT LOBBYING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
* event planning
* media relations !!!! Getting garbage published for dupes to recirculate...

===============================

In addition more facts surfaced about sleazy Tom Harris:

In 2002 he was employed by APCO Worldwide, a known organized crime fraud arranger with a stable of "whitecoats" to give science-flavored deceptions uncovered by the Tobacco Racketeer trials of the 1990s. APCO created TASSC, a pure-fraud operation which had many of the same science-liars as an event they hosted in 2002 in Canada. Tom Harris was listed as contact for this event. APCO also organized the fraud operation known as "Friends of Science" at the same time.

http://www.climatesearch.com/newsDetail.cfm?nwsId=54

Tom Harris, Associate
APCO Worldwide (Canada)
phone 613/288-0382
fax 613/565-1937
email tcharris@apcoworldwide.com
web http://www.apcoworldwide.com

Climate Specialists speaking at the news conference:
1 - Dr. Tim Patterson - Carleton University professor of earth sciences (Paleoclimatology specialization).
2 - Dr. Fred Singer, President of The Science & Environmental Policy Project and Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia.
3 - Dr. Tim Ball - professor of Climatology, University of Winnipeg and the first climatology Ph.D. in Canada.
4 - Dr. Madhav L. Khandekar, Environmental consultant. 25 years Research Scientist from Environment Canada.
5 - Dr. Pat Michaels - Dr. Michaels is a research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, visiting scientist with the Marshall Institute and Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute, both in Washington D.C.
6 - Professor Fred Michel of Carleton University Department of Earth Sciences

Energy Engineering Specialists:
1 - Dr. J. Terry Rogers, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carleton University. He is currently the Chairman of the Research and Development Advisory Panel to AECL Board of Directors.
2 - Dr. Howard C. Hayden, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut.

Not attending news conference but available for phone & email interviews:
Dr. Roger Pocklington
Dr. Sallie Baliunas
Dr. Willie Soon
Dr. John Christy
Dr. Chris Essex
Dr. Roger Peilke
Dr. William M. Gray
Dr. Fred Seitz
Dr. George Taylor
Dr. Sherwood Idso
Dr. David Wojick, P.E.
Art Robinson of OISM
Dr. Herb I. H. Saravanamuttoo
Dr. Robert Balling
Dr. Ross McKitrick
Dr. Philip Stott

A more extensive list of experts available to be interviewed will be presented at the news conference on Nov 13.

============

http://climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=17546

OTTAWA -- Foes of the Kyoto Protocol, including Imperial Oil and Talisman Energy, are sponsoring a gathering in Ottawa today of scientists skeptical of the treaty as part of a last-ditch effort to derail Canada's ratification of it.

Organizers have rounded up approximately 25 scientists and engineers who are prepared to assail the scientific premises underlying Kyoto in an attempt to raise public doubts about the need for the treaty. ...

... "There's a lot of people who are prepared to vote on this even though they don't have enough information -- and that's not a very responsible thing to do," says Evan Zelikovitz, whose public affairs firm APCO Worldwide is organizing the "Kyoto's Fatal Flaws Revealed" press conference. ...

... The speakers are not being paid for their comments, but the cost of staging the Ottawa event is being borne by a group of contributors including Imperial, Talisman and a group of Canadian lime producers.

Producing lime -- used in applications ranging from water and sewage treatment to power generation -- is very energy-intensive, and the federal government's own research suggests the lime industry will be among those hardest hit under Kyoto.

============

More about TOM HARRIS' HIGH PARK GROUP
http://www.stikeman.com/newslett/EnNov04.htm

Timothy Egan, President, High Park Group; Senior Advisor, Canadian Electricity Association

Mr. Egan is president of the High Park Group, a public policy consulting firm that focuses largely on energy issues out of its offices in Toronto and Ottawa. He is retained by the Canadian Electricity Association on a range of issues, including U.S. advocacy (monitoring the U.S. Congress and Administration on issues of interest to the Canadian electricity industry).

============

http://groups.google.ca/group/sci.environment/msg/72bc37c24b8d6cd0?hl=en&

ENEMIES OF SCIENCE WEBSITE has been DEBUNKED HERE BEFORE.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Friends_of_Science
"... The PR contact is listed as Sheila Roy of APCO Worldwide Canada,
who have been involved in climate change denial since at latest 2002
[3] (http://www.climatesearch.com/newsDetail.cfm?nwsId=54) [4]
(http://climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=17546).

In email correspondence in November 2005 Albert Jacobs from FoS
indicated that Roy was hired on a one off basis though APCO are
occasionally hired to "do specific jobs for us under incidental
contracts, as the need arises."

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.global-warming/msg/83a6d9058504e010
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.global-warming/msg/6d800713e165bc16

Good morning.

Looks like the blob is just being a blog, nothing more. We'll see. I would like for it to remain a blob and come visit me with about 2 inches of rain. :)


weathercore.com. Drop by if you need some weather links.

WSI, the convection is firing up near the center again, just like it did during the day yesterday. It still bears watching. I still give it a 50% chance of making TD2.

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, SSTs and much more. Including WU blogger storm video.

SJ

What is this all about, 91 degrees at 5:53am in Nebraska?
-------------------
Heat Bursts Occur Across South-Central Nebraska Early Tuesday Morning, June 20th.

Heat bursts are caused by decaying thunderstorms and only develop in an extremely unique environment. The rare setup for a heat burst is dry air directly beneath a weakening elevated thunderstorm. When a thunderstorm is weakening air within the thunderstorm begins to sink. If this sinking air is very dry and high enough it will begin to accelerate toward the ground since it is more dense. Any remaining precipitation will fall through this dry air and quickly evaporate. As the air continues downward, it warms rapidly due to compression.

A heat burst is noted by a rapid increase in temperature, a drop in the dew point temperature and an increase in winds. Here are some readings that occurred this morning.

Lexington Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
3:10 am 70 63 Southwest 8 mph
4:30 am 86 48 South 32 mph gusting to 42 mph
5:30 am 81 52 South 25 mph gusting to 32 mph
The peak temperature was 87 degrees at 4:22 am
Holdrege Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
3:50 am 72 61 Southwest 10 mph
4:10 am 82 54 Southwest 27 mph gusting to 41 mph
4:30 am 82 52 Southwest 31 mph gusting to 42 mph
4:50 am 81 54 South 23 mph gusting to 36 mph
Hastings Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
4:53 am 77 62 South 15 mph gusting to 24 mph
5:53 am 91 44 South 17 mph gusting to 38 mph
6:53 am 84 53 South 21 mph gusting to 35 mph
7:53 am 82 53 South 24 mph gusting to 38 mph
Peak temperature was 94 degrees at 4:47 am
Peak wind gust was from the south at 52 mph at 7:24 am
Kearney Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
4:15 am 70 63 South 15 mph
4:55 am 88 50 Southwest 35 mph gusting to 52 mph
5:55 am 82 52 South 28 mph gusting to 38 mph
The peak temperature was 93 degrees.
Grand Island Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
6:02 am 79 59 Southwest 6 mph
6:53 am 85 51 South 23 mph gusting to 35 mph
8:13 am 81 59 Southwest 8
Peak temperature was 87 degrees at 7:59 am
Peak Wind Gust was from the South at 40 mph at 6:30 am
The greatest temperature change was at Kearney, where readings went from 70 degrees to 93 degrees between 4 and 5 am. The highest wind gust was 52 mph at both the Hastings and Kearney airports.

Composed by Steve Kisner / Warning Coordination Meteorologist

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=gid&storyid=2841&source=0

looks like our bahama blob is heading on vacation in puerto rico! LOL

never would have guessed this track overnight....

still bears watching, as it could do a 180 and head back to the bahama's! LOL

thel, it is not headed towards PR. That is just convection that has been sheared/thrown off of the system. It is a little ENE of where it was yesterday IMO, and the convection is trying to fire near the center, but it is still getting sheared. It will be interesting to see how that convection does through the day.

SJ

That is interesting Fast5. Never seen that before. Learn something new everday. :)

SJ

thanks SJ.... just took a quick glance before i ran out the door this morning.....

looks like it is starting to flare up again....

this little storm may start becoming annoying like ophelia last year! LOL

What I don't get...is the shear forecast on the link provided on WU has the blob in a favorable area. Wonder what gives???

my new blog will be up this morining. To promote my blog i will have some quizzes in my blog.

Today quizz is - what is the most intense atlantic storm between 1995 and 2004? Leave answers at my blog?

Looks like the blob is moving back now to the west.

Just say no to tropical blobs!

Fascinating post F5. We see plenty of collapsing thunderstorms in central FL in the summertime, and in my experience the descending air is always cooler. If the steering flow is weak, a bounday forms around a collapsing storm as a little ring that is like a small cold front at the surface expanding outwards. If there are several of these boundaries, they sometimes collide and fire up new storms.

Your post made me curious on what causes the heat bursts. I found this link with a concise explanation written by meteorologist Jeff Haby, for anyone interested.

Hurricane Mitch?

new blog is up

The small area around the closed circulation identified in yesterday evening's NWS TPC/NHC tropical weather discussion is covered with weak to moderate convection centered at roughly 27.3° N 72.3° W, and seems to be somewhat separated from the main body of convection. In the visible satellite loops, I can no longer identify a closed circulation, although it could be under the convection.

According to this morning's tropical discussion, "The large upper low over the central Atlc is centered near 33n44w with the upper flow as far S as 13n from 31w-60w." This ULL looks to be squeezed on the NW side by an appraoching trough, but the flow on the SW side of the ULL south of 30° N seems to be enhancing the shear over the main body of convection.

According to the early morning AFD-Melbourne FL, "BOTH GFS AND WRF AMPLIFY THE INVERTED TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...
T-WAVE WILL PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE PENINSULA TO BRING POPS UP TO SCT AREAWIDE AS DLM MOISTURE INCREASES. HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST...DUE LARGELY TO THE ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN H25 JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ENE...IT WILL ERODE THE WRN PORTION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE WEAKENS...IT IS POSSIBLE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MAY MISS THE STATE TO THE NE."

According to the 530 AM EDT THU JUN 22 Offshore Waters Forecast for the SW North Atlantic,
"SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO 31N72W TODAY WILL DRIFT W TO ALONG 79W EARLY SAT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA LATE SAT...THEN W OF AREA SUN. WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG TROUGH NEAR THE N BAHAMAS EARLY SAT THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SAT AND BE W OF AREA SUN. RIDGE ALONG 31N EARLY TODAY WILL LIFT N OF AREA TONIGHT."

Station 41010 - CANAVERAL EAST 120NM East of Cape Canaveral 28.95 N 78.47 W

2120 GMT on 06/22/2006:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 °F

Quoting jeffB:
Slowchaos wrote:

With that statement you seemed to be promoting the idea of either overtly or covertly suppressing free speech by having the news media ignore the contrary view. You attempt to give weight to your argument with the sheer number of those on your side, as if you should be heard more loudly because of numbers on your side.
The sheer number of believers equates to nothing in my book. NOTHING.

It's certainly possible for the vast majority of believers to be wrong!

HOWEVER:

There are lots of people who believe that governments are secretly controlling the weather. Some of them even post here. Do you think "the media" owe them coverage equal to that given conventional forecasts?

There are people who believe that they see faces, buildings, cities, amusement parks in photos returned from Mars. Do you think the media owe them coverage equal to that given NASA researchers?

There are people who believe that conventional medical care goes against God's will, and no illness should be treated with anything other than prayer. The next time there's an outbreak of a communicable disease in your area, do you think the media should divide their time equally between treatment and prevention tips and exhortations to prayer?

Holding a minority belief doesn't make you wrong, but neither does it somehow entitle you to an equal share of the public's attention.

I just now, 4 years later, I saw your reply to my comment Jeff. The faces on Mars, government controlling the weather, etc. have been covered by the media. They don't receive alot of coverage because most people are intelligent enough to see the foolishness in these things and don't show interest for long in these stories. If the general public does not show interest then the news media will drop its' coverage of it - free market, free press and free speech.

What you were suggesting was intentionally blocking the counter view even though there is plenty of public interest in that view - not free market and suppression of the press and free speech.

HUGE DIFFERENCE!!!