Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Brownsville forecast discussion describes shear as "negligible".

That was a good article bug, I think FL faught off the drilling for now, but I heard oil tankers are starting to frequent Cape Canaveral. LA is going to allow additional drilling in exchange for marshland rebuilding money (talk about dealing with the devil). What was the point of that speech about getting this country off oil, seems all this legislation just past total contradicts the promises.

BEIJING (AP) — China's death toll from Tropical Storm Bilis rose to 530 on Saturday, more than a week after the storm hit, as officials in southern Guangdong province and the Guangxi region reported an additional 48 deaths, state media said.

Oklahoma City was so hot Friday that a portion of Interstate 44 buckled, forcing the temporary closure of two lanes. From an article on the St Loius storms. There's been more than several deaths from this heatwave.

href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html" target="_blank">Link

The atlantic wave/low seems to be aquiring a more substantial circulation this afternoon. If thunderstorm development ensues then satellite classifications may follow suit soon after. (invest 99L that is)

oops...

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.22.2006.gif

According to this NOAA chart the temperatures are above average in most areas near the US......no?

If you click my blog you can see a video of the thunderstorm that came through my area. That same storm beleave brought some rain to the downtown LA area.

Afternoon all. I see we are still debating the Coastal SSTs :)

I would like for someone to explain to me why the AVHRR maps show the warmer waters along the E coast and the N Gulf, and yet there is still some dispute about it. Not just here, but when you compare them with other maps the data just does not add up, as well as some mets talking about the warmer coastal waters. One thing I will say for the AVHRR maps is that they show much more detail then the colored in SST maps.

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.

Do these upper level winds play along with high pressure and heat as a general rule. If so, noticing these areas of extreme convection popping up in a few hours all over the place, it may be interesting later in the season when these shear winds should subside.

98L Update
20 knots
1011mbar pressure
very disorganized
Located 20.0N-96.0W
VISIBLE IMAGE

"According to this NOAA chart the temperatures are above average in most areas near the US......no?"

Yeah, but we were talking about 2005 and 2006.

In any case, here are the maps I am looking at.

2006

2005

These have the exact same date. On the previous comparison I was trying to match SJ's dating. Yeah, looks warmer overall in the Gulf, but the east coast... there is no question. Cooler according to those maps. In fact, much of the tropical Atlantic is cooler than 2005.

Everyone just choose the one that makes them happy. :)

456 actually i think the low is further n and e the pressures are lowering in these areas i still think if? this
develops it will probably go further n and e

yeah, saint i see some convection building to the north

"I would like for someone to explain to me..."

What mets SJ? And this isn't the first time I have seen the AVHRR site in a dispute such as this on here. :)

When I pull a map saying the exactly opposite of what you say... pretty obvious why I dispute it. :) I might grant you the GOM temps, but not the east coast.

In any case, I am sure everyone will choose the site they want. I like the AOML site, and will continue to pull my data from it unless I find a reason not to.

Posted By: Weather456 at 1:41 PM PDT on July 23, 2006.
yeah, saint i see some convection building to the north


??????? do you mean 98L 456?

Afternoon WSI, good to see you.

I am not disputing that SST maps differ, just trying to understand why and what is causing the discrepancies. Seems to be a similar situation with shear, as there are often times differing views of shear on various shear maps. I think that a lot of the wind shear map discrepancies can be attributed to different levels and types of shear, which I yet to have a clear understanding of.

anybody have sattelite images of Beryl with radar if possible.

taz, yeah.

Weather456 coool so 98L is looking more happy right now

Emilia is almost a hurricane {70mph}, while Daniel continues to weaken {120}.

No Taz, even though convection is building to the north, it is nowhere near the center and it is very disorganise. The only chance now if it moves north it will encounter very favourable Wind shear and SST.

Wind shear again has increase across the caribbean.

I would think there are better references than the AOML, which is part of the Department of Commerce.

"just trying to understand why and what is causing the discrepancies"

I agree its interesting. I think its a matter of how they are processed. There are only so many sats up there, so the data has limited sources. :)

In any case, I have seen the AOML site used a fair amount (Steve Gregory used it some, and I think I have seen Dr. Master's post it once or twice if I am not mistaken). Other bloggers have used it too. Guess that is the one I am familiar with. The anomalies that I posted seem to reinforce the fact that 2005 was indeed warmer overall. If you look there, it would appear that 2005 had the "warmer" anomalies.

I do like the detail of the site you posted.

the NHC is still holding onto it:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232056
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

: Weather456 wow how mean dos that make for hurricnae evere name storm has be come a hurricane so far

NAM seems to give an area in the Florida Straits a chance to develop off north carolina. Link
doesn't look impressive now, but who knows?

Posted By: Tazmanian at 5:04 PM AST on July 23, 2006.
: Weather456 wow how mean dos that make for hurricnae evere name storm has be come a hurricane so far

I dont quite understand.

An interesting question:

Everyone is so very concerned about the surface temperatures - has anyone noticed the temperature gradients aloft?

This is potentially more significant. Further, models on radiation cooling, etc. may be even more strongly leveraged? Does this trigger an ice-age like event?

Earth does remain in some grander equilibrium due to distance from the sun, etc. ...

Anyone have data on what is happening to the tropospheric gradients?

So does the BOC system have a chance at becoming TD 3?

I can't get the latest Naso update to play...that really sucks :( Guess I'll just have to wait for another one...

In my opinion if 98L does not get itself together over the next 24 hours, and organize a LLC further away from shore, the actual area that may be of more concern is the central or western GOM. There will be a weakening frontal trof drapped across the northern GOM, very favorable upper level conditions, the very warm SST's, and pressures are relatively low across the northern GOM.

Posted By: quakeman55 at 5:11 PM AST on July 23, 2006.
So does the BOC system have a chance at becoming TD 3?

one chance: move north into low wind shear.

456

when Tropical Storm Emilia be comes hurricane Emilia how mean would that be for july and is that odd to have this mean i think evere strom we get will be come a hurricne this watch

Here in California we have been having odd thunderstorms and extreme heat. Thunderstorms aren't rare in the mountains this time of year but the intensity and scope of the ones we had up there this weekend was amazing. Next week may cool slightly but we may actually end up dealing with the remnants of Emilia.

Taz, i see what you mean, EPAC is always the opposite, thats why we only had one storm in July.

Bullish CMC seems to like the wave in the central atl.

Weather456 but why are they seeing so mean hurricne overe there and we have not yet seen one

Taz, upper level winds were very favourable through out July in the EPAC, and the Atlantic, opposite, very unfavourable.

Thats why the EPAC had more hurricanes.

But something I realize in the past weak. Wind shear has increase in the EPAC area, and decrease in the Atlantic.

so would this be that last hurricane for them so that way we culd start talking about the next name storm for us what is the forcast for us oh from now to the 1sr week augst

ouch!!!!! STOCKTON ca is now 114 right now or this about 115 eeeeeek give me some snow man

EPAC storms are Africa Born also Taz. Once some of the waves start forming in the Atlantic Basin you will notice the EPAC die down. All the active EPAC tells you is that conditions are still not favorable in the Atlantic.

Emilia's track, although common. Might tell you something about the Atlantic. I have done no research yet but I will.

seems that 98L, is interacting with some convection in the gulf. Well I'm off until later tonight or Monday.

High Pressure off the Northwest coast also has a big impact on the seasons, which I will also be doing some research on.