More heat; Gulf of Mexico disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 PM GMT on July 23, 2006

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The heat was unrelenting yesterday across the Southwest U.S., where most of California and Arizona set new high temperature records. The 99 degrees in downtown Los Angeles beat the old record of 96 set in 1960, and the suburb of Woodland Hills hit a record 119. All the cities in California's Central Valley set records: 109 degrees in Sacramento, 111 in Redding, and 112 in Red Bluff, Stockton and Modesto. San Francisco's 87 degrees easily beat the record of 81 for the date, set back in 1917.

In Phoenix, this morning's low temperature was 97 degrees, which broke the all-time record for highest low temperature ever recorded in that city (96, set on Jul 15, 2003). Tucson's low of 89 Saturday morning was its highest low temperature in recorded history, as well. The temperature topped out at record 116 in Phoenix yesterday, and 121 in nearby Gila Bend.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is over 20 knots in this region, which is too high to allow development today. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting this shear to be 15 knots or higher over the next few days, and usually one needs wind shear to fall to the 10-15 knot range for development. However, the NHC is playing it cautiously and has put a Hunter airplane on call for Monday, if needed. I'll be surprised if this flight happens.


Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Enjoy another quiet weekend in the tropics, everyone!
Jeff Masters

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364. SpyRI
5:49 AM GMT on July 24, 2006
Wow, I guess everyone left. Ooooookay. (leaves room, wondering "do I offend?""
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363. Inyo
5:48 AM GMT on July 24, 2006
cyclonebuster, you might be amazed to learn that an amazing wavelength of 'light' emits from the planet at all times, even at night! Furthermore, it emits much less strongly from cold areas, like the top of clouds. Maybe if we could learn to harness this magical wavelength, we could watch hurricanes and other storms at night! It's not visible to the human eye but I bet we could invent a camera that could see it.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
362. SpyRI
5:28 AM GMT on July 24, 2006
Well, I'm at the pc right now, so I guess the pc! I like the monitor size better, and to be honest, I love the sliding keyboard tray on the computer table thing the pc lives on. I love the laptop too. Both are sony vaios, actually. Good stuff for a decent price. I used to be a mac person, but can't afford it anymore. Now the only mac I have is my ipod!
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360. hurricane23
1:24 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
SpyRI what u like better laptop or pc?
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359. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:21 PM JST on July 24, 2006
lol, that was good ^_^
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358. SpyRI
5:21 AM GMT on July 24, 2006
I have a sony vaio which does fine for me- it's pretty sturdy too which is thie thing I was worried about when i got a laptop. Love wifi. Definitely make sure whatever you get is wifi enabled.
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357. hurricane23
1:14 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
For real LOL...Ive got a pc in my house but iam lookin into getting a laptop....any ideas?
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354. hurricane23
1:08 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
JP you there?
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353. SpyRI
5:04 AM GMT on July 24, 2006
Hey guys. Another insomniac here! I was jsut reading about the people dead from the heat wave out west- yikes. And it looks like NOLA is about to get some totally needed but too much too fast rain. What a world we live in.
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352. hurricane23
12:59 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
Iam working on getting me a new laptop.Right now got a pc.19 inch flat screen with good tower.any suggestions were i can a good deal?Ebay maybe.
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350. hurricane23
12:41 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
What about my album?
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349. StormThug
11:37 PM CDT on July 23, 2006
yeah its cool 23
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348. hurricane23
12:35 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
did u guys see the post i did above on hurricane wilma?
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347. StormThug
11:35 PM CDT on July 23, 2006
im here
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346. hurricane23
12:34 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
Just me jp...I think?
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344. hurricane23
12:24 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
BahaHurican

Check out my Hurricane Wilma Photo Album...
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343. BahaHurican
12:21 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
When I am typing last night for that night, it's a sign that I need to go to bed now. . .

g'nite!
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342. BahaHurican
12:12 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
LOL
I remember reading that report

I slept very little last night.

There are some spectacular shots of Wilma w/ that small eye and later, with a larger eye, crossing over Cozumel. u could see most of the island through the eye . ..
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341. littlefish
4:13 AM GMT on July 24, 2006
Looks like more dust coming off Africa.
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340. hurricane23
12:08 AM EDT on July 24, 2006
For some reason i was just remembering staying up all night with wilma i actually never went to bed.I couldn't believe what recon was reporting inside wilma i will never forget those moments.

CHECK THIS OUT... FROM RECON THAT NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT
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338. Tazmanian
8:57 PM PDT on July 23, 2006
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN FIVE DAYS

hmmm it only 110mph winds now could the winds go back up to 145mph or so be for it gets to the state of HI if that what they mean by a SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114784
337. Tazmanian
8:54 PM PDT on July 23, 2006
...Tropical waves...
High amplitude tropical wave is along 39w S of 22n moving W near
15 kt. A 1011 mb low is on the wave axis near 15n39w. Broad low
level curvature with a well defined low center are observed on
satellite imagery. Wave is embedded with an area of dense
African dust. Only isolated showers are within the ITCZ.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114784
335. hurricane23
11:54 PM EDT on July 23, 2006
Incredible JP the NHC is now sayin Daniel could be a significant TRopical cyclone in five days.WOW!

Here a part of what the NHC said...

AS DANIEL APPROACHES
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN.
CONSEQUENTLY...DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN FIVE DAYS


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332. hurricane23
11:46 PM EDT on July 23, 2006
Actually after doing some searching Iniki was well south of Hawaii and then turned due northward and hit Kauai, so it technically didn't come in from the East like Daniel is forecast to.

Here's the track for Iniki showin the sharp turn.





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329. hurricane23
11:39 PM EDT on July 23, 2006
If iam not mistaken the last systems to affect Hawaii were....

Hurricane Iniki 1992 and Hurricane Dot in 1959.

If Daniel continued west after reaching Hawaii, he might have a chance at staying alive until the WPAC which is very rare.

Right now the one i can think of is Dora in 1999.

Here's the track...




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326. Trouper415
3:28 AM GMT on July 24, 2006
Conditions becomming more favorable.......
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325. Tazmanian
8:24 PM PDT on July 23, 2006
so where the 982mblow evere one is talking about?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114784
324. hurricane23
11:23 PM EDT on July 23, 2006
ABNT20 KNHC 240219
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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323. Dan187
3:24 AM GMT on July 24, 2006
So Daniel is now forcasted to be over hawaii as a strong tropical storm in 120 hours
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322. Weather456
11:22 PM AST on July 23, 2006
I start judging 98L 2 morrow, for now, just wait and see....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
320. BahaHurican
11:17 PM EDT on July 23, 2006
On 98 doing a Beryl,

sure it could. But unless it can get out from under Emilia, I'm with the other guys.
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319. BahaHurican
11:15 PM EDT on July 23, 2006
That low is way to the north, heading for England, it seems . . .
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318. Weather456
11:13 PM AST on July 23, 2006
98L could do a beryl, look bad tonight, 2morrow boom, TD 3 by 11am, then boom TS Chris by 5pm.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
316. BahaHurican
11:08 PM EDT on July 23, 2006
You're welcome, Skypony. Glad to help!

That OPC site also has a pretty cool Unified Surface Analysis chart with the option of allowing u to look at a 14-day loop of the forecasts for ATL and PAC. This is really cool because it shows the waves from Africa move across the ATL, the Caribbean, and Central America into the EPac, and then forming into TD/TS/H. It also shows the Twaves coming up from the Equator area in the WPac to form some of the WPac typoons.

In the winter it shows the cold fronts going the other way - W to E . . . :o)
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315. Tazmanian
8:12 PM PDT on July 23, 2006
? there a 982mb low where?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114784

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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