Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

More heat; Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:32 PM GMT on July 23, 2006 +0
The heat was unrelenting yesterday across the Southwest U.S., where most of California and Arizona set new high temperature records. The 99 degrees in downtown Los Angeles beat the old record of 96 set in 1960, and the suburb of Woodland Hills hit a record 119. All the cities in California's Central Valley set records: 109 degrees in Sacramento, 111 in Redding, and 112 in Red Bluff, Stockton and Modesto. San Francisco's 87 degrees easily beat the record of 81 for the date, set back in 1917.

In Phoenix, this morning's low temperature was 97 degrees, which broke the all-time record for highest low temperature ever recorded in that city (96, set on Jul 15, 2003). Tucson's low of 89 Saturday morning was its highest low temperature in recorded history, as well. The temperature topped out at record 116 in Phoenix yesterday, and 121 in nearby Gila Bend.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is over 20 knots in this region, which is too high to allow development today. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting this shear to be 15 knots or higher over the next few days, and usually one needs wind shear to fall to the 10-15 knot range for development. However, the NHC is playing it cautiously and has put a Hunter airplane on call for Monday, if needed. I'll be surprised if this flight happens.


Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Enjoy another quiet weekend in the tropics, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Categories: Heat
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201. wxwatcher 12:21 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
AND LOL at 456!! Awesome graphics!
202. Cavin Rawlins 12:23 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
here is the last of beryl...



correct Agust to August.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
205. littlefish 12:25 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
I'm thinking more now that if it gets pushed north and east a smidge and festers, it'll develop...
206. Inyo 12:25 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Anyone else notice that Emilia is freakishly HUGE in geographic size, although it isnt very organized.

A lot of moisture in that thing... most likely bound for the mountains of California eventually to cause more thunderstorms... woo hoo!

Link
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 765
210. WSI 12:28 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Michael, if you find the need to pepper your post with obscene words, it probably means you need to expand your vocabulary a little bit. Its not hard to express your viewpoint without obscene words.
212. bappit 12:29 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Yeah, Emilia is large.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4372
213. HurryCane 12:29 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
I agree with WSI.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 27 Comments: 30
214. jus991 12:30 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
that gom blob actually has a small chance,if it mantains its thunderstorm activity a little longer
216. wxwatcher 12:31 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
My God Michael, you need to step outside and have either a cigarette or a nice guy pill. You come up and say I don't know what I'm talking about, then throw a temper tantrum when you're wrong. I have a feeling you want to see a huge storm for whatever reason... I just want to see rain in Texas.

At any rate, the three of you speak with a forked tongue, thus, your credibility is so severely damaged that it would take all of you to get every storm the rest of the season right to make it up. Keep wishin' for your storms so either you or like-minded people like you can run around and scream "OH MY GOD, GLOBAL WARMING! LOOK AT THE DESTRUCTION!". In the meantime, people like me are going to enjoy what is shaping up to be a good ol' rain-feast here in Texas WITHOUT Chris!
217. HurryCane 12:33 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Excuse me?

I have clearly heard a majority ask you, Michael to eliminate the swear words. I think you should listen and bow to the will of the majority. It isn't hard to do. Just talk without those words and you will be respected even more.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 27 Comments: 30
219. bappit 12:33 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
I believe that upon occasion delicate understatement can be appropriate and sometimes unexpectedly effective particularly when your opponent does not know what the hooey you are talking about.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4372
221. bappit 12:35 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
I have an obscene button and I will use it as frequently as it gives me satisfaction.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4372
223. Raysfan70 12:39 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Posted By: Michael at 8:30 PM EDT on July 23, 2006.
Hey if you dont like it leave. Nasty channel on TV TURN IT OFF. Go find a meteorlogical church channel


this is not your blog please take it to yours.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57352
224. ricderr 12:43 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
kids night on the blog..guess there aren't any good cartoons on
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
225. cas23 12:43 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
is this a tropical blog???? just logged on. lets talk tropics, michael grow up and learn to respect people. look- i curse like its my second language but i dont here. people dont want to see that stuff. all your doing is slowing down the opinions of the people that really do care about what is goin on, so please stop!!!!!!!
228. WSI 12:44 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
"just dont gripe about it, deal with it"

Oh we are dealing with it. I would much rather someone be told they are doing something wrong than simply have their posts removed. The real characters are the ones who know they are in the wrong but continue anyway.

Once your posts are removed by the admin I hope you see the light.
230. hurricane23 12:45 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Guys check out these maps...

Ocean Heat Content Reynolds SST 7/21/2004
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Ocean Heat Content Reynolds SST 7/21/2005
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Ocean Heat Content Reynolds SST 7/21/2006
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us




Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
231. jus991 12:45 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
the gom blob is now dissapated, losing a lot of its convection now
233. jus991 12:46 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
its gone
235. wxwatcher 12:47 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
JP, what PROOF are you talking about????? Do you not agree that shear and proximity to land are inhibiting factors for development??? If you can't get that through your thick skull, I don't know if you know anything about hurricanes.

Also, look at the WV. Does this look like a system destined to organize. Granted, if it lingers longer over the Gulf, the shear relaxes, and it moves a little further east, then I'll entertain your theory.

On the flip side, where is YOUR proof of this thing organizing.... or better said, where is there ANY evidence of this organizing? Hence, you can't have PROOF of anything dealing with weather.... only evidence. I've never heard any respected meterologist say "I have proof it's going to rain at your house tomorrow" or "I have proof this is going to become a hurricane.."

236. jus991 12:47 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
well see chris in late august
239. hurricane23 12:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Look at all the yellows in 2005!!Thats one of the many reasons 2005 was a season that was breaking records left and right from the start of the season.Iam just glad to have been able to live threw such an incredible season.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
240. weatherguy03 12:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
On the flip side, where is YOUR proof of this thing organizing.... or better said, where is there ANY evidence of this organizing? Hence, you can't have PROOF of anything dealing with weather.... only evidence. I've never heard any respected meterologist say "I have proof it's going to rain at your house tomorrow" or "I have proof this is going to become a hurricane.."

Bravo! We arent solving equations when we make a forecast!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680
242. chefjeff 12:53 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Ya'll need to take a break, Michael needs to row his boat offshore.
244. ihave27windows 12:53 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Yes, it's me, back with another question.

Ok, so there is a stalled, or kind of stalled front over the Texas coast, and there is (possible)blob development in the BOC, if this front makes it into the GOM, then backs up, will it influence the blob?

And, what are the chances of the front making it into the GOM and developing when there is already a blob in the BOC?

Thanks all!
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14641
245. weatherguy03 12:54 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
I used to make forecasts for a TV station. Noone called me up later and asked for my Proof!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680
247. wxwatcher 12:56 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
What "all these systems developing..."??? Did I say there were all these systems developing??? I said keep an eye on the ATL basin in the coming weeks as it looks to be more interesting than this BOC rash... Did I say we were going to have C, D, E, F, G and so on???

What in the HELL are you talking about....????

And yes, I did call someone a jackass. I said it once for emphasis, and let it go..
250. hurricane23 12:58 AM GMT on July 24, 2006    
Guys iam sure u guys are aware of this website but in my opinion it Updates faster and you can zoom in...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

There was a mid-level spin earlier with 98L, but it is all but gone now.The Only way 98L survives is if it picks up some energy that Emilia is throwing out.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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