More heat; Gulf of Mexico disturbance
The heat was unrelenting yesterday across the Southwest U.S., where most of California and Arizona set new high temperature records. The 99 degrees in downtown Los Angeles beat the old record of 96 set in 1960, and the suburb of Woodland Hills hit a record 119. All the cities in California's Central Valley set records: 109 degrees in Sacramento, 111 in Redding, and 112 in Red Bluff, Stockton and Modesto. San Francisco's 87 degrees easily beat the record of 81 for the date, set back in 1917.
In Phoenix, this morning's low temperature was 97 degrees, which broke the all-time record for highest low temperature ever recorded in that city (96, set on Jul 15, 2003). Tucson's low of 89 Saturday morning was its highest low temperature in recorded history, as well. The temperature topped out at record 116 in Phoenix yesterday, and 121 in nearby Gila Bend.
Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is over 20 knots in this region, which is too high to allow development today. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting this shear to be 15 knots or higher over the next few days, and usually one needs wind shear to fall to the 10-15 knot range for development. However, the NHC is playing it cautiously and has put a Hunter airplane on call for Monday, if needed. I'll be surprised if this flight happens.

Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
Enjoy another quiet weekend in the tropics, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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correct Agust to August.
A lot of moisture in that thing... most likely bound for the mountains of California eventually to cause more thunderstorms... woo hoo!
Link
At any rate, the three of you speak with a forked tongue, thus, your credibility is so severely damaged that it would take all of you to get every storm the rest of the season right to make it up. Keep wishin' for your storms so either you or like-minded people like you can run around and scream "OH MY GOD, GLOBAL WARMING! LOOK AT THE DESTRUCTION!". In the meantime, people like me are going to enjoy what is shaping up to be a good ol' rain-feast here in Texas WITHOUT Chris!
I have clearly heard a majority ask you, Michael to eliminate the swear words. I think you should listen and bow to the will of the majority. It isn't hard to do. Just talk without those words and you will be respected even more.
Hey if you dont like it leave. Nasty channel on TV TURN IT OFF. Go find a meteorlogical church channel
this is not your blog please take it to yours.
Oh we are dealing with it. I would much rather someone be told they are doing something wrong than simply have their posts removed. The real characters are the ones who know they are in the wrong but continue anyway.
Once your posts are removed by the admin I hope you see the light.
Ocean Heat Content Reynolds SST 7/21/2004
Ocean Heat Content Reynolds SST 7/21/2005
Ocean Heat Content Reynolds SST 7/21/2006
Also, look at the WV. Does this look like a system destined to organize. Granted, if it lingers longer over the Gulf, the shear relaxes, and it moves a little further east, then I'll entertain your theory.
On the flip side, where is YOUR proof of this thing organizing.... or better said, where is there ANY evidence of this organizing? Hence, you can't have PROOF of anything dealing with weather.... only evidence. I've never heard any respected meterologist say "I have proof it's going to rain at your house tomorrow" or "I have proof this is going to become a hurricane.."
Bravo! We arent solving equations when we make a forecast!
Ok, so there is a stalled, or kind of stalled front over the Texas coast, and there is (possible)blob development in the BOC, if this front makes it into the GOM, then backs up, will it influence the blob?
And, what are the chances of the front making it into the GOM and developing when there is already a blob in the BOC?
Thanks all!
What in the HELL are you talking about....????
And yes, I did call someone a jackass. I said it once for emphasis, and let it go..
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
There was a mid-level spin earlier with 98L, but it is all but gone now.The Only way 98L survives is if it picks up some energy that Emilia is throwing out.
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