Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

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go to noaa.gov..go to the atlantic floater, click inf. loop

put ur cursor where chris's center was when it starts.

start the loop.

the center now ends up NW of where your cursor is..not WNW.

rock the loop if you want to see it easier

There is no doubt....its moving more to the north.....

Yea I think it was that date, I was in Hialeah

If this thing makes it into the gulf we could have a huge problem... cat 2 or 3...

the latest vortex message has it at 18.1 and 61.2 since it was at 17.3 and 60.3 at 11am that is a nw movement not wnw. the 18z run of gfs now picks up on chris and moves it on a little more north track than the other models, but it does lose it after day 4-5. next few runs sould tell more now that it is picking up on it.max flt level winds now 64 kts. a stronger chris will go more north than the models predict. I say a se fla landfall and it will not be bothered by haiti. It only has to go 2 more deg. north to miss Hispanola landfall.

I'm with JP on this. I think actual observations matter more on this storm than computer models.

I'll give NHC a little more weight on tracks - where they do a fairly good job - than on intensity forecasts for small systems. They continually predicted early demise for Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta last year.

456 stay safe there chief

Question, Would NHC fly a plane into the ULL, to see how strong or weak that is as that seems to be a HUGE player in this?

Other storms that have passed or formed near chris.

Hurricane Klaus 1990

TS Cindy 1993

Hurricane Georges 1998 started of the coast of africa and presented a similar track to chris's current one.

Hurricane Debbie 2000

Jennene 2004 as has already been stated.

Rita 2005 further along its forcast track.

Well, I'm hearing Rita's and Andrew's name alot.....

Michael, if that thing rapid intesifies, I am digging a hole and jumping in it.

I think with the increased intensity the west and wsw tracks are unlikely

The 18Z GFS has shifted N. I will be very interested to see what the 18Z GFDL does. It also still shows it starting to weaken after about 30 hrs.

Chris is now in the Active Storm

Preparedness info

I'm working on a house in La. and Gulf Shores, Should I worry?

Guys the third vortex came in, and at just slightly south of NW from the 2nd vortex, and a mean motion of due NW over the 3.5 hours from the first vortex. Maybe it isn't a wobble after all . . .

Is the ULL starting to move away?

Even with the strength of the storm if the Bermuda high builds back west towards Florida it will steer it more westerly or wnw..Katrina was a cat 1/2 in the gulf last year and was pushed wsw because of the building high pressure

sorry..Chris is on the Active storm page now on SJ.com...

ok its not jsut a wobble its deffinatly moving north i say it will speed up make landfall on friday or saturday in broward county as a cat 2 move upthe coast of florida as a ts exit the coast of jupiter or it will make landfall in broward and move accross the state and leave off tampa just some predictions nothing serious not trying to freak people out lol

Today is the hottest day in Toronto's history
with Humidex it reached 115F.

Mean Temp. 30.1 C

.... back to Chris

Someone Please tell me this

How can

1. the NHC say at 11pm last night that TD 3 would only poss. become a Tropical Storm by This weekend...If at ALL...and THEN it becomes a Tropical Storm 6 Hours Later!!!!????

2. 18 Hours after they predict TD 3 Might become a Tropical Strom by the weekend....IT BECOMES A 60 MPH TS!!!!!!!???????

2.

Michael,
I'm confused, ok a High is a major player but I keep hearing the ULL will determine strength of this storm, how would a High dissapate it then if that is the Major player?

Ok, sorry. Not to cause a riot in here about Chris' movement, just that I've been following it for a couple of days as I was directly on its path. Now it seems like is going to pass farther north than previously expected this morning. Maybe it is just a wobble, as some of you pointed. Let's see what happens. Can't wait for 8 o'clock!

I won't be suprised if we see a pressure reading in the upper 990 region by 9pm or earlier. As for this storm, we can basically classify it as a Cat 1 now. Cat 2 possible by tonight.

Winds according to the recon are at 73mph, so basically it is a hurricane.

did they find a eye

Guys, throw what NHC, models and everyone else is pontificating about out the damn window. Use not only your instincts but your eyes. This storm is defying what physics and the atmosphere is stating it "should" do.

the NHC isn't forcasting a wsw movement, but they didnt forcast a wsw movement in Katrina either and look what happened..the projected landfall went from Apalachicola to SE Louisiana in a 6 hr period

Hey guys... I love to read all the comments but rarely get involved. I kinda feel like it today. I'm in Galveston so I always keep an eye on the tropics during the season. Who thinks this will make it into the gulf? That question has to be answered before anyone can talk about where in gulf it will go.

HELLO EVERYONE, please go easy on me, if i ask this question. Does anyone know what hurricane hit the ST. PETE area in the fifties? Sorry guys, but i have a reason for asking! Thanks to all!

nothing lol i am jsut predicting waiting for a advisory

If we could predict the exact path and strength of Chris we would be flying or own plane into the storm because we could predict lottery results and the stock market.

It is a crap shoot right now.... did I mention we got to 115 F in Toronto today...

Any model bringing Chris really close/into Puerto Rico? Don't think so.

The ULL is the major player in potential strength as it will create shear on the system if it does get out of the way. The building high is what will steer it. In a nutshell I think..lol