Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Good thing they took the 2000 posts limit off...

Good morning to all on my first cup of coffee...

I might add, rather quickly! Thanks for the updates 23!

dido for me, 23

Progressive,
What are the chances the forecast tracks will shift even further North and if it stays 310 isn't that more NW, I live in Central FL and the forecasters seem very complacent that it will go through the Keys

Today's patterns will be crucial sporteguy! Keep eye's on it!

Our locals in West Palm put a Question Mark on Sunday Monday based on the progress of Chris.

what part of middle fl???

But 310 Progressive is NW right?

Orlando

315 is due NW...so it's slightly south of NW.

if you are in west palm, keep both eyes on it.

Thanks Ike

315 is NW so it is just W of NW

Or south, thanks IKE

if Orlando, one eye!!!

With all of the models holding firm on the high staying in place...seems like the only question is what part of Florida will it go to...but I may be jumping the gun.

Doesn't look like it's going up the east coast of the US, but rather across Florida..into the dreaded Gulf of Mexico.

one eye haha, if its a wobble then it should move more west, if its not what factors would pull it further NW a weaker High like JP thought?

Top o' the mornin to y'all....delurking....

Sounds like NHC thinks this will be a hurricane, since the forecast is somewhat stronger than the "barely hurricane" SHIPS model. They didn't come out and say it but reading between the lines....

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...YET SHOWS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29.5C TO 30C SSTS AND BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND
EAST. GIVEN THAT CHRIS IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT
CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY BUT ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST AS QUICKLY...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS
TIME IN HE LONGER TIME PERIODS...BUT STILL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.

Looks like it's trying to shoot the gap between Cuba and FL. Still don't see an eye. I think it's got another 24 hours to get to Cat 1 status....this board has been worried about this one since it got off of Africa.

PS Kudos to the server gnomes for keeping this place running.

relurking....

Everybody in central FL get ready! this has a Jeane and Frances type track written all over it!

Correct 03, which would exit the ULL to the west in quick fashion. Allowing Chris to travel more of a NW track, shear free and in good conditions.

Please go north! Not into Miami. Although with 75 mph winds my power shouldnt be compromised, but you never know!

All eyes are on the ULL today!

My bet is chris will shoot the gap or extreme south florida. In either case, this is not good for miami to the keys area. And not good for the gulf coast. it will explode in the gulf.

Not this morning but I did see him later last evening Randrewl. Morning BTW!

Good Morning all,
im absolutely noobie and in trainig mode but id liek to share my thougths as well :)
I think if Chris makes it in the gulf it will become very powerfull(eddy).

Hypotetical if it hits Florida directly this wouldnīt be a huge storm.
Also it propably goes quick through.

But itīs more likely that Chris, due to his small size and speed drives fast below the keys into the gulf, pushed by the system to the north.

Chris is quickly growing, down to 1000mb. I woulden't doubt a hurricane @ the 11am update.

What a difference a day makes eyy Randrewl! lol.

by the way, if anyone is in doubt about hurricane status soon, check this out.Link

Question - Looking for a map/graphic that simply depicts synoptic features (highs/lows, ridges, etc.) affecting tropical systems. Something like the 'Fronts" map here at WU but extending into Carib, Atlantic, etc. I am a county emergency mgr in hurricane country (SC) and want to use it in my briefing emails along w/track maps, etc. to visually depict features outlined in TD Discussions. It needs to be fairly simple one for all levels of readers.

Any ideas? pointers? links?

Thanks!

Ken

In my opinion Randrewl, it is now. But I am the one sitting here knee deep in blueprints, not the one in front of the offical screen.

Chris continues to gain latitude making it more of a South Fla storm. Does anyone share my thoughts on this?

Fox 35's Jim VanFleet said it is moving further South from FL based on each new track? Is he reading the discussions?

Moreso every update sails. More north and stronger seems to be the trend.

sails if it keeps this up it could hit Indian River County or Martin County?

ken, I would say sat. water vapor with surface map (graphic) imposed upon the top?

buenos dias still waiting on this thing to take a more northerly jog like the forcasters keep saying

I bet Rico, getting pretty close.

WOW looks like Chris is really starting to bomb according to the last few images.Looks like it also is tracking a little more to the north like maybe NW which means the forecast track will shift to the north making this a south or central FL storm. I say it goes across FL exiting Tampa.

Progressive,
Our forecasters are using older models thinking thats the trend over Hispanola still and dissapating, I'm glad NHC posts discussions and Dr.M has this blog if I was a viewer in central FL I would feel complacent here based on the meterologists here, it most likely won't make it this far north but its a little too close for comfort.

Mornin' MrPuertoRico. Bet I'll end without electricity in a while, even if it doesn't rain at all. Typical story of my life. What about in your zone?