Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Chris is stronger

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:06 PM GMT on August 01, 2006

The Hurricane Hunters found much stronger winds than expected in Chris this afternoon. The 2:50 pm EDT eye report indicated a central pressure of 1007 mb, down 2 mb from the most recent advisory. Most surprising were the winds in the southeast quadrant, which were in the 55-60 mph range. Radar out of Guadeloupe shows this intense band thunderstorms rather nicely. The northern side of Chris is still devoid of thunderstorms due to the dry air and wind shear. The storm's appearance on satellite imagery is improved from this morning, and shows the beginnings of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature typical of strong tropical storms. Wind shear has dropped another 5 knots this afternoon, down to 10-20 knots, so some continued strengthening is possible. The latest set of model runs are quite divergent on what Chris might do, and I think we really need to wait until the next set of model runs is in before we can rely on the computer models. Unfortunately, tonight's flight of the NOAA jet was cancelled, so we'll have to wait until Wednesday night for the jet to fly. Most of the computer models are still dissipating Chris by five days from now.

I'll be back with an update in the morning with the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2351. FLweather 12:33 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
does anyone else understand and see what im saying about the points and where chris is located on the loop? Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

2352. rxse7en 12:34 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html Watching Chris follow in behind the ULL in the Bahamas, you can see the high moving in, but Chris seems to be dropping in line north of the predicted path. Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

2353. rxse7en 12:37 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Cyclonebuster, Enough with the "tunnels" crap. Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

2354. FLweather 12:38 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

2356. RedMosquito 12:39 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Could someone educate me on the term 'floater' in the context of weather? I see it has something to do with the radar, but thats as far as I get.

2357. FLweather 12:39 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
but if it gets far enough north it will have to be pushed very hard to be pushed down to the straits Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

2358. TampaBay58 12:42 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
The floater's are satellites that can be "floated" or moved to observe a area of interest verses being fixed on a particular zone

2359. FLweather 12:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
The low has finally reached the Bahamas. Its on its way through them. What will happen if the Low gets past florida before Chris gets near??? would it be good or bad? Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

2360. RedMosquito 12:47 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
TampaBay58 Great, thanks. Makes sense!

2361. 21N71W 12:50 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
Bahahurican thanks, if it does come our way will keep you all posted with live update as long as internet is up. Tidal surge and rainfall our our main worries here. Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 180

2362. rxse7en 1:11 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
The high is setting up behind that low and will keep Chris's path south. Path all depends on how that high sets up and how Chris interacts with land in the Caribbean. Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

2368. SoItGoes 2:42 PM GMT on August 02, 2006
T.S. Chris update for St. Maarten (SXM). Thankfully for us, Chris went farther north than forecast. Our internet service went down (probably to protect their system) just after receiving the 11pm coordinates. Still couldn't sleep even though it was dead calm and with very light short periods of rain. It has been a steady rain since about 4:30am? Not heavy. We are facing the "wrong" way in the anchorage towards the SW now. It's OK because there's not much wind it just has the planes coming in for a landing over us which is quite disconcerting :) Appreciate looking through your blog to see what happened through the night. I hope there won't be much flooding problems but that's better than flooding and wind. Keep safe guys! Sheila s/v So It Goes, Simpson Bay Lagoon, St. Maarten (SXM) Our sailing blog

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