Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Max Mayfield to retire as head of NHC
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2006 +0
Max Mayfield announced today that he is stepping down as head of the National Hurricane Center at the end of the year, acccording to press reports from the Miami Herald and Florida Sun Sentinel. Mayfield, 57, admitted that the last two hurricane seasons wore him out. Ed Rappaport, the center's deputy director and a veteran forecaster may be next in line for the job, after Max steps down on January 3. Max's expert guidance of NHC has no doubt saved many lives, and I will miss his calm and intelligent presence at the helm of NHC.


Max Mayfield at the 2006 American Meteorological Society meeting, extolling what he wants engraved on his tombstone: "Don't look at the center track forecast line! Look at the cone of possible center locations."

I'll have an update on TD 5 between 4pm and 5pm EDT.

Jeff Masters
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601. nash28 9:09 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Ten Commandments!! LOL big time!!!!

I can just picture Charleton Heston on your front lawn!!!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
602. seflagamma 9:09 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
nash, saw your post about meeting each other. A lot of us who were on last year and stayed the winter have already had lots of "WUBA meetings" Heck we have a logo and have shirts, hats, etc with that logo!!! all the meetings have all been great. Many who have lived in a close by area get together often. Some of the folks on here are some of the nices people you will ever meet.
Many of us over the winter have exchanged outside email and phone numbers, etc.
Hope some of you do the same. It is a great idea.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485
603. Patrap 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
.we out to Head for Middendorfs ..in Manchac..fer da catfish..later..all
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503
604. Tannim 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Patrap, I don't blame you. I wouldn't go for two in a row either.
605. STORMTOP 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
ike it will not hit anywhere in the gulf because it wont get in the gulf...it will hit the south fla coast on wednesday and go up the east coast thurs and friday....it could be a cat 1 to cat 3 so all you people be alert please.....StormTop
606. nolesjeff 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Sounds good to me Nash, actually The wife and I were just discussing our cruise to the bahamas 1st week of October. Will take laptop and give wave height and wind speeds of course. Doc Laura and especially Gulf kill me, I am always lmao.
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
607. kmanislander 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
well I am outta here for now. will check back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
608. musicallydeclined 9:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Posted By: quante at 9:07 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Hey, can lighting come through a window? It's like the Ten Commandments down here in So. Fla.

Defininately: stay away from windows, water (sinks, bathtubs,etc) phones, computers plug into phone or cable lines, etc.
609. franck 9:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
fldude99...gas prices rose today, so that they can double when Ernesto actually enters the Gulf.
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610. Patrap 9:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
..u betcha tannim..take care...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503
611. reeldrlaura 9:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
.....says Patrap can bring hisself and his loved ones over ANY time!!! Door is OPEN darlin.
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6006
612. 1900hurricane 9:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366
614. ihave27windows 9:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Yes Taco, I know exactly what you mean.....

Well, I have to go make dinner, so I will be back here later to see how Ernie is.

Bye everyone!
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14642
615. Tannim 9:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
I think there needs to be a I "heart" WUBAs sticker
616. nash28 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Stormtop: Are you seeing the High shifting far enough to the East to allow Ernesto to slide along the left side and be that far to the east??

Just want to know your opinion. Personally, I feel the GFDL is the best solution thus far and actually may be too far south.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
617. taco2me61 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Laura,
On a serious note, there is a lot of LOVE in this room or blog but we are all here for the weather and friendship...

If there is anything we could do for you just lets us know... I mean any of us...

Taco:0)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763
618. frostynugs 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
the workers are banging their hammers outside as I type this repairing what Katrina did, and now they may be coming back in a couple weeks! :(
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
619. SWLAStormFanatic 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
"Dr, Dr, Gimme the news..."

Drlaura, I noticed...thx! I feel like I've arrived now ;)
620. SEFL 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Posted By: STORMTOP at 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
ike it will not hit anywhere in the gulf because it wont get in the gulf...it will hit the south fla coast on wednesday and go up the east coast thurs and friday....it could be a cat 1 to cat 3 so all you people be alert please.....StormTop


Blown up there by the trade winds????
621. Tazmanian 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO


new all see this in the 5pm update from are new TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354
622. 1900hurricane 9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Does anyone else think this is insane???

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366
623. musicallydeclined 9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Patrap- which building... the old or new middendorfs building. i perfered the old builing. oops are both still there?
624. 147257 9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

should have been a tropical storm at 2 pm advisory :O
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
625. coffeecrusader 9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Based on the forecast track we're out of the woods here in Tampa. I should have known as much as Tampa NEVER gets hurricanes.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
626. southbeachdude 9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
ST....with the new shift to the ene of the center the new model runs tonight might be closer to South FL. I am not taking it lightly here...
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 694
628. weathermanwannabe 9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
I sent this out to the employees I am responsible for this afternoon around 1:00 PM: Tell your people, in the Gulf, to take advantage of this weekend to stock up if they need to..............


I am letting you know, pursuant to my "unofficial" status as the CWLS weatherman, that there is a concern that a rather large tropical depression, soon to the tropical storm Ernesto, is south of Puerto Rico at this time and forecast to enter the Gulf as a Hurricane late next week (see link).

Given the fact that crunch time, if storm threatens the Big Bend area (there are to many variables in play to determine possible landfall at this time but I feel that this may end up being a major hurricane strike somewhere in the Gulf region), that any warnings, etc, would begin to go up towards the end of next week (while we may still be working), I would urge all of you to think about buying any needed hurricane supples (water/food/wood, etc,) this weekend as if the Big Bend/Panhandle is threatened, stores may get very hectic at the end of the week/next weekend, and supplies short, if you wait it out until the last minute.

Please know (my legal disclaimer) that this is not meant to worry anyone at this point, but, as Hurricane season is just really starting up, well all need to have some supplies in stock anyway for the next one if this storm does not materialize as a Big Bend event.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6695
629. kmanislander 9:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
hey Nash

I like your idea about all the bloggers getting together. What should we call ourselves ??
maybe $5 to the person who comes up with the most original name
LMAO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
630. nash28 9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Think about it guys. With a little planinng and time, we can pull that together.

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
631. IKE 9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:10 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
ike it will not hit anywhere in the gulf because it wont get in the gulf...it will hit the south fla coast on wednesday and go up the east coast thurs and friday....it could be a cat 1 to cat 3 so all you people be alert please.....StormTop


I disagree....I think it's headed toward Jamaica, Caymans...the western part of Cuba and then somewhere along the gulf states...east of Texas.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
632. nash28 9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
If for nothing else, I'd like to do shots with Gulf:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
633. STORMTOP 9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
thats exactly what im thinking nash.......StormTop
634. WPBHurricane05 9:14 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
i like the new ST..much nicer, and none of this written is stone crap
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929
635. nolesjeff 9:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Coffee, dont say that. Thats what we said about SWFL until Charlie
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
636. franck 9:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Is lightning attracted to a window..no. Silica is not a conductor of electricity. But a couple million volts of high amperage electricity looks pretty hard elsewhere for a conductor.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
638. kmanislander 9:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
has to be after Nov 30th though
after all who would be left on land to watch out for these storms !!
Internet at sea is VERY expensive
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
639. musicallydeclined 9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
reeldrlaura- sent you an email. hope ya got it.
640. WPBHurricane05 9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
OK IM OUT OF HERE< LIGHTNING LIKE CRAZY
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929
641. reeldrlaura 9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Taco....everyone......Thanks! I will ask for the things I need. So far y'all are just so gracious, I don't worry about me......I AM, however worried about Ernesto.....no matter what ST says. The multiple vortexes make it SO hard to predict anything.....surely hope it settles down a bit....even if it stays organized....it's those MV's that freak me out!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6006
642. nash28 9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Hey, I got a name already guys....

"The Wishcasters"

Can you imagine hearing "Would the members of the Wishcaster party please report to the captain to give a BIG WU forecast for the next 5 days."

Classic!!!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
643. seminolesfan 9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Alright everyone, I'm gonna go enjoy some of my Friday night.

ttyl,
Justin
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1719
644. nolesjeff 9:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Nash, when do you start FSU? We will be up for the Wake Forest game.
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
645. Corpusman 9:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Hey all...new here. Thanks for all of the knowledge....but wxwatcher....Carla hit Texas in early September......:-)
646. stormlovr 9:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Good Afternoon All .... Well, I'm a newby to the blog and I'll tell you ... I think ya'll are doing a great job keeping people up to date. I just saw they updated TD5 to Ernesto .... what is the general thoughts on when (if) it hits the Gulf of Mexico. I live in the Panhandle of Florida. Any thoughts?
647. kmanislander 9:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
shots with gulf
hmmmmm

need to unwind him a bit first lol
definitely gone now
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
648. WhereIsTheStorm 9:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
GS - When WILMA came through from West to East across S FL, the eye went over West Palm Beach, there was a lot of damage south of the storm and most of it was caused by tornados. I have a report from someone on South Beach that did not evac as they should have from the 15th floor, that a roof from a lower building had actually came flying straight up and the tractor trailers across the street were blown over. The south side of WILMA was just nasty. The last report I had gotten from the TV before the power went off was that several tornados would develop along the county line between Miami and Broward. I guess you would call this a multiple vortex situation.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
649. reeldrlaura 9:18 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Posted By: kmanislander at 9:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
hey Nash

I like your idea about all the bloggers getting together. What should we call ourselves ??
maybe $5 to the person who comes up with the most original name
LMAO
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Posted By: nash28 at 9:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Think about it guys. With a little planinng and time, we can pull that together.


GOOD idea! How about the Weather-or NOT's? :)
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6006
650. nash28 9:18 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
Hey Weatherwannabe. That's interesting becaause my employer has had me rewrite the Team Member Hurricane Handbook and wants me to put out official emails if a storm is threatening Tampa Bay.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
651. PBG00 9:18 PM GMT on August 25, 2006    
I don't see how it could hit sfla..That is such a huge shift..what could cause that and why is NO ONE else on to it../9Just want to know if it is a real possibility,(Here its like a sigh of relief this thing isn't going to be our problem)
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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