96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.
Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.
F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS
it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
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49 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - The Bush administration has blocked release of a report that suggests global warming is contributing to the frequency and strength of hurricanes, the journal Nature reported Tuesday.
The possibility that warming conditions may cause storms to become stronger has generated debate among climate and weather experts, particularly in the wake of the Hurricane Katrina disaster.
In the new case, Nature said weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — part of the Commerce Department — in February set up a seven-member panel to prepare a consensus report on the views of agency scientists about global warming and hurricanes.
According to Nature, a draft of the statement said that warming may be having an effect.
In May, when the report was expected to be released, panel chair Ants Leetmaa received an e-mail from a Commerce official saying the report needed to be made less technical and was not to be released, Nature reported.
Leetmaa, head of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in New Jersey, did not immediately respond to calls seeking comment.
NOAA spokesman Jordan St. John said he had no details of the report.
NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher is currently out of the country, but Nature quoted him as saying the report was merely an internal document and could not be released because the agency could not take an official position on the issue.
However, the journal said in its online report that the study was merely a discussion of the current state of hurricane science and did not contain any policy or position statements.
The report drew a prompt response from Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg (news, bio, voting record), D-N.J., who charged that "the administration has effectively declared war on science and truth to advance its anti-environment agenda ... the Bush administration continues to censor scientists who have documented the current impacts of global warming."
A series of studies over the past year or so have shown an increase in the power of hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a strengthening that many storm experts say is tied to rising sea-surface temperatures.
Just two weeks ago, researchers said that most of the increase in ocean temperature that feeds more intense hurricanes is a result of human-induced global warming, a study one researcher said "closes the loop" between climate change and powerful storms like Katrina.
Not all agree, however, with opponents arguing that many other factors affect storms, which can increase and decrease in cycles.
The possibility of global warming affecting hurricanes is politically sensitive because the administration has resisted proposals to restrict release of gases that can cause warming conditions.
In February, a NASA political appointee who worked in the space agency's public relations department resigned after reportedly trying to restrict access to Jim Hansen, a NASA climate scientist who has been active in global warming research.
MAKE SURE THE ENDING OF THE URL ENDS IN .GIF, .JPG and NOT .html
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS IN THE
WRN PORTION AROUND 80W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 78W-83W...WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA. THIS SEEMS
MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A WELL DEFINED
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE
REGION NOT FALLING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. TRADES
CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ON THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLC
HIGH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH LOWER PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA.
SIMILAR TRADES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
the spanish somethin something something something
andonde vas??
Como te llama??
note ll is pronounced as english y
So does anyone think the blob in the Carribean is gonna mount to anything and can it end up in the GOM? It really don't have a chance to get real bad does it? With it being close to the gulf.
Dats funny rite der!!!
what the heck, how come i cant post images from the navy but 1900 can, thats no fair, i want my mommy!!
The navy images have really long URLs, so make sure you get it all! The complete URL for the Ioke image I posted is http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/thumbs/CPAC/01C.IOKE/ssmi/geovis/20060904.1947.f14.x. geovis.01CIOKE.65kts-976mb-325N-1475E.31pc.jpg. Long...
WHAT A FUNNY JOKE, it wond stregnthen too bad since its close to the Gulf, hmm... which storm should i use for this example, too many, Rita, Katrina, Dennis, Ivan, with a bigg Eddy in the gulf, under right conditions it could rapidly intensify
HEY I AM FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LOL
So does anyone think the blob in the Carribean is gonna mount to anything and can it end up in the GOM? It really don't have a chance to get real bad does it? With it being close to the gulf.
Not saying it will develop, but if it did, and got in the gulf, it would be like throwing 93 octane on a fire!!
Monica of Austrilia?
Correct!
8:00 NHC discussion says that development in the Caribbean blob is not expected...
What does eveyone here think?
Here is a close-up visible pic of Monica's awsome eye structure holding at a pressure of 879mb.
Viewing: 701 - 751
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