Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ok, let's not all get carried away here. The models need to show some consistency, other than two model runs today. If they continue to show the same thing into tomorrow and beyond, then we really need to pay close attention.

I have seen too many runs showing a significant storm forming, only to find that the following mornings runs drop it. Let's see if the models still show this tomorrow.

Nash28 global models have been hinting on development since nov 10 with different scenarios playing out.But overall futher consistency with the models will be key.

Looks like the NOGAPS is changing its mind at the end of the loop!! Link

Howdy do everyone. Everyone having a good day? Is that a ULL off the coast of Virginia/Maryland? Kinda reminds me of Thingamabobbercane.

Well guys, regardless of what actually comes of this system the models are predicting, I believe it is safe to say we will have an Invest at the very least sometime this week:-)

finally some action and the major models are agreeing of some development, i say we get a minimal hurricane to be optimistic.

I wouldn't go that far just yet Drakoen. First, we need to monitor the shear levels in that area and see how it is behaving. Secondly, due to the synoptic pattern we have been embedded in for quite some time now, shear levels in the Gulf and Northern Carribbean have been very high, so any change there would be significant. I believe we will get a TD out of this, but beyond that??? Too early to tell. Let's see if the models continue to be in good agreement...

Careful how you use that "O" word Drakoen.

Thanks for the viewpoint of experience nash.

lol why? should i say pesimistic?

I think that's what most in the possible crosshairs might feel. :)

What an active season its been in the pacific this year...

Here's a view at invest 96E!

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Just looked at the 18z GFS and it continues to be very persistent in developing a tropical system in the western caribbean.

18z GFS loop

The 18z NAM is also showing development...

wow that track for that thing shifted a lot.

I see that. This time, it takes the system over Hispanola and out to sea, once again sparing the U.S. from a hit.

Let's see if our luck will continue...

I expect track guidance disagreement on this one...

Hurricaneblast global models indicate that tropical cyclone development might occur in the western caribbean.Some models are more aggressive then others and tracks are also vary with each model.The key thing to look at here is the overall consistency in the models.

HEY EVERYBODY,JUST PASSIN BY QUICK TO TALK ABOUT THIS WESTERN CARRIBEAN DEVELOPMENT.ALL THE MODELS DEVELOPING SOMETHING BIG.WELL SEE YA TOMMOROW!!!!!!!

Yep 882MB. We may actually have something on Dr. Masters blog to discuss this week!!!!

hmm dont hope it is something like lenny

Go visit my blog for further details if you choose to.

tommorow it is also the day td lenny was born =/ dunt like it too much cause it was a badass hurricane

nash28 check your mail!

so this thing is suppose to go to south florida

Miami---

Not gonna discuss any tracks of something that hasn't even formed yet. Not being combative, but we need to see if the models continue to be in good agreement of genesis and whether this thing actually forms.....

Side note-- I hope the models are wrong...

me too nash i was just saying how blessed we have been this hurricane season

Posted By: 147257 at 6:40 PM EST on November 12, 2006.

hmm dont hope it is something like lenny.

I dont think overall conditions will favor significant intensification of system like the likes of LENNY.

Here is a visible pic of lenny in 1999...

Are we going to have to put our storm shutters
up again in SW Florida ?

Absolutely Miami. We have been blessed this year. Thank God!!!! We don't need anything....

Let them all be fishy storms. Great for study and no one gets hurt.

Posted By: PGIFL at 7:03 PM EST on November 12, 2006.

Are we going to have to put our storm shutters
up again in SW Florida ?

I also live in southflorida and for now there is not much to worry about but with so much model aggrement in my opinion its worth keeping a close eye on the situation.

Miamiweather check your mail!

the wave that was in the south linward islands looks completely blown out

hi all.

Could the low at 30N 50W & moving South in to a low shear environment pick up a gulp of warm air? "Thingamabobbercane" did it with 15-16C.

Hi ryan, good to see you back. How was the weather in Barbados today?

Final #s on Queenie (Typhoon Chebi), in the Philippines. 1 dead, 5 missing, 9 hurt & 8,580 displaced.

A drunken man was reported to have drowned in a swollen creek after he fell off a bamboo bridge in Casiguran town..

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration said Chebi is expected to gain strength as it heads toward Vietnam.

The typhoon hit landfall Saturday packing maximum winds of 131 mph resulting to the injury of eight persons in Casiguran.

Reports also said that at least five fishermen were missing when their outrigger boats capsized near Sabang, Quezon.

Hellooo all, There is weather to discuss................

SFL is a long ways off from worring about anything gitten 'em from the Caribbean. Now those in Jamaica & areas around there (CMC) might want to think about what you may need to get if we see more consistancy with the runs & something develops. Seems the models are torn on how much influence the front will have on the possible disterbance.

Weather in Trinidad today, loads of rain in my guage ( I havent checked how much ) I was out for the day........

I was just gonna ask.. Pottery. That wave looks like it weakened alot today. Still raining?

Pottery,
Did you get rained on too, or just your gauge? ;)
Wind?

The 998mb Gale that is currently off the coast of NC.

The gale is kickin some waves. That looks more like an erosion set up then a good surf set up.

Storm, US East CoastLink

Hi Skye, . Not raining now but overcast. The rain today was unusual in that it was very stormy in appearance, but the rain fell in isolated heavy showers islandwide. I only got 1.25 " but where I was today felt like about 3" in 30 mins. The wave does look to be less well defined than it did earlier, I agree...Cant see it holding out, but this has been the season for peculiar.

No wind at all

Buoy41025 Nc Coast,AtlanticLink

Winds up...as it approachesLink

More Buoys in the area...Link