Typhoon Chebi less destructive than feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2006

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Typhoon Chebi slammed into the main island of Luzon in the Philippines last night at 6pm EST as a Category 3 storm with top winds of 120 mph. There are no reports of deaths yet, and damage appears to be much less than occurred for Super Typhoon Cimaron, which made landfall October 29 as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 15, left 2500 homeless, and destroyed about 8% of the island's rice and corn crop. However, Chebi was a much weaker typhoon, and dumped far less rain on the Philippines since it moved across the islands relatively quickly. Rainfall estimates by NOAA (Figure 1) show maximum rain amounts from Chebi were in the 4-7 inch range, which should not cause the kind of widespread flash flooding and landslides that are the primary hazard of typhoons in the Philippines. Cimaron dumped about 50% more rain on the Philippines than Chebi did.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for Typhoon Chebi. Image credit: NOAA


Figure 2. Typhoon Chebi shortly after landfall. Image credit: NRL Navy Reasearch Lab.

My next blog will be Monday, when I plan to discuss a new hurricane-like storm found on Saturn.

Jeff Masters

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114. hurricane23
11:13 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Just looked at the 18z GFS and it continues to be very persistent in developing a tropical system in the western caribbean.

18z GFS loop
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
113. TheSamurai
11:07 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
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112. hurricane23
11:04 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
What an active season its been in the pacific this year...

Here's a view at invest 96E!


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
111. LowerCal
10:59 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
I think that's what most in the possible crosshairs might feel. :)
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
110. Drakoen
10:37 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
lol why? should i say pesimistic?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
109. LowerCal
10:29 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Thanks for the viewpoint of experience nash.
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108. LowerCal
10:28 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Careful how you use that "O" word Drakoen.
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107. nash28
10:27 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
I wouldn't go that far just yet Drakoen. First, we need to monitor the shear levels in that area and see how it is behaving. Secondly, due to the synoptic pattern we have been embedded in for quite some time now, shear levels in the Gulf and Northern Carribbean have been very high, so any change there would be significant. I believe we will get a TD out of this, but beyond that??? Too early to tell. Let's see if the models continue to be in good agreement...
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
106. Drakoen
10:24 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
finally some action and the major models are agreeing of some development, i say we get a minimal hurricane to be optimistic.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
105. nash28
10:16 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Well guys, regardless of what actually comes of this system the models are predicting, I believe it is safe to say we will have an Invest at the very least sometime this week:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
104. Stormsabrewin
10:14 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Howdy do everyone. Everyone having a good day? Is that a ULL off the coast of Virginia/Maryland? Kinda reminds me of Thingamabobbercane.
103. stormchasher
9:48 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Looks like the NOGAPS is changing its mind at the end of the loop!! Link
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
102. hurricane23
9:36 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Nash28 global models have been hinting on development since nov 10 with different scenarios playing out.But overall futher consistency with the models will be key.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
101. nash28
9:20 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Ok, let's not all get carried away here. The models need to show some consistency, other than two model runs today. If they continue to show the same thing into tomorrow and beyond, then we really need to pay close attention.

I have seen too many runs showing a significant storm forming, only to find that the following mornings runs drop it. Let's see if the models still show this tomorrow.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
100. stormchasher
4:14 PM EST on November 12, 2006
Heres most of the ModelsLink
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99. stormchasher
4:10 PM EST on November 12, 2006
Ok thanks 23:)
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98. stormchasher
4:08 PM EST on November 12, 2006
Wouldnt it stink if there was a Great Thanksgiving Hurricane?
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97. hurricane23
4:00 PM EST on November 12, 2006
stormchasher that is unknown at the present time with each global model varying in intensity.When you see this much model agreement its time to pay attention.

PS! Check your mail!
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96. stormchasher
3:59 PM EST on November 12, 2006
How strong can this get 23?
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95. hurricane23
3:58 PM EST on November 12, 2006
I agree nash28....The CMC,NOGAPS, and the GFS have been fairly persistent so far.The canadian model is the most aggressive with development.Maybe the trigger that gets things going in the western caribbean is the wave currently moving threw the islands.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
94. stormchasher
3:57 PM EST on November 12, 2006
If any of you like ryang come to his blog!!! URGENT!!!
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
93. nash28
8:32 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Hey Taz, 23. Taz, regarding the shear values, that is for right now. This system being predicted is days away and as well all have been taught over the last couple of years, shear levels change constantly day to day.

Now, I will do some research to see what the GFS model is predicting for shear days out. That might help....

That being said, this is the first time in several weeks that three big models are all showing something more than a weak TD or wave. We need to watch this one. Also remember, on the flip side, we need to see if the models remain consistant with this feature, or if they back off on the next couple of runs.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
92. hurricane23
3:24 PM EST on November 12, 2006
Taz all models are in very strong agreement on developing some type of tropical feature in the western caribbean in the next couple of days.SST'S are still warm enough to support a pretty strong hurricane.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
91. Tazmanian
12:16 PM PST on November 12, 2006
but it will not do a thing wind shear is way 2 high
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90. hurricane23
3:08 PM EST on November 12, 2006
Good afternoon,

I think its time to pay very close attention on developments in the western caribbean as there is big time consensus in the global models.

Here is the 12z CMC which is very agressive on its development!


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
89. nash28
6:27 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Well, looks like Dr. Masters may have to mention a possible storm forming in the Carribbean next week. The 12z runs for the CMC, GFS and NOGAPS all form a system, each model varying in strength, with the CMC blowing this thing up to hurricane status, while GFS and NOGAPS showing strong TS.

This is the ONLY area in the entire Tropical Atlantic that has any chance of producing a system. Stay tuned...
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
88. stormchasher
1:28 PM EST on November 12, 2006
Hi! :)
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87. SurvivingStill8p
5:38 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Well, if it's an invest now, show me some models when they come up. Otherwise, this blob has some issues to overcome.

Otherwise, until the NHC picks it up, I'm not going to let it ruin my day.
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85. BahaHurican
12:01 PM EST on November 12, 2006
Goodday, all,

What's that just east of Trini and Barbados there? Is this what the models were picking up yesterday?

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84. HurricaneRoman
4:51 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Yea but thats over 120 hours away
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83. LafitteTman
4:49 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Please, no tropical weather for us in LA. I'm trying to get a few good days of duck hunting in next week, keep the cold fronts coming!
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82. weathercat64
4:14 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
exscuse me for my spelling
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81. weathercat64
4:11 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
Do you think the blob of the mexacan coast will develope?
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80. weathercat64
4:09 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
What is that blob?
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79. Tazmanian
8:02 AM PST on November 12, 2006
the 1008mb low that : LowerCal was talking about is now 96E
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78. stormchasher
10:11 AM EST on November 12, 2006
Link 18gfs run is impressive! :) bye
:)
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77. stormchasher
9:39 AM EST on November 12, 2006
Link somethings hapinig!!
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
76. Tazmanian
5:43 AM PST on November 12, 2006
but wind shear is 2 high overe the Western Carribbean and gulf so if any thing going 2 do any thing in the Western Carribbean for get it it will not last a day do 2 the stong wind shear up 2 50 80 kts

bye all going back 2 bed
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75. nash28
12:49 PM GMT on November 12, 2006
06z GFS forming something in the Western Carribbean.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
74. LowerCal
3:24 AM PST on November 12, 2006
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
...
...ITCZ...
...
A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N99W
WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 99W-103W.
...

...DISCUSSION...
...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N100W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.
...


RGB Loop
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9188
71. Wishcasterboy
6:46 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
I kinda doubt it Wayne.
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70. G35Wayne
6:31 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
could this be the "great" thanksgiving hurricane?
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69. G35Wayne
6:29 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
wow looks like all of the models are showing development in the southern carribean and moving north.
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67. ajcamsmom
4:45 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
Hurricane 23, thanks for keeping us informed on the weather. I look forward to your posts.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.