Typhoon Chebi less destructive than feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2006

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Typhoon Chebi slammed into the main island of Luzon in the Philippines last night at 6pm EST as a Category 3 storm with top winds of 120 mph. There are no reports of deaths yet, and damage appears to be much less than occurred for Super Typhoon Cimaron, which made landfall October 29 as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 15, left 2500 homeless, and destroyed about 8% of the island's rice and corn crop. However, Chebi was a much weaker typhoon, and dumped far less rain on the Philippines since it moved across the islands relatively quickly. Rainfall estimates by NOAA (Figure 1) show maximum rain amounts from Chebi were in the 4-7 inch range, which should not cause the kind of widespread flash flooding and landslides that are the primary hazard of typhoons in the Philippines. Cimaron dumped about 50% more rain on the Philippines than Chebi did.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for Typhoon Chebi. Image credit: NOAA


Figure 2. Typhoon Chebi shortly after landfall. Image credit: NRL Navy Reasearch Lab.

My next blog will be Monday, when I plan to discuss a new hurricane-like storm found on Saturn.

Jeff Masters

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59. hurricane23
8:46 PM EST on November 11, 2006
MM5 also showing development along with the CMC,GFS and the Nogaps.Time will tell if something does indeed get going down there.


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58. pottery
9:38 PM AST on November 11, 2006
RYANG< did not mean to blank you. What happened in Pakistan? I didnt have a moment to check it out today........
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56. hurricane23
8:33 PM EST on November 11, 2006
Good evening,

The model support continue's for some type of tropical development in the western caribbean...

Here is the 18z GFS showing this disturbance moving into southflorida.


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52. ryang
1:23 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
Pottery we had a bad day today in Pakistan
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46. pottery
9:18 PM AST on November 11, 2006
Rand, the foreground has me beaten, but I think the background is a P21 ???? looks a little squat though.......
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40. Wishcasterboy
1:16 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
So how was your day Pottery?
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37. ryang
1:12 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
hi pottery.
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36. pottery
9:08 PM AST on November 11, 2006
Sounds a bit grim. For info. again, thousands of images at caribbeanstockphotography.com
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34. Wishcasterboy
1:03 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
Your rum is as old as me, quite disturbing I might add. Me? about me you see I have been engaged in the most foul of related issues that attend the house.
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33. pottery
9:01 PM AST on November 11, 2006
Ah Wishcaster, you have it. In the foreground is the Trinidad Yatch club, from whence we venture forth for the Wahoo. In January......
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32. pottery
8:59 PM AST on November 11, 2006
It is indeed an evening Mr. Wishcaster. A glass of fine El Dorado 15 yr old rum, and a pleasant one at that. How about you ?
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31. Wishcasterboy
12:59 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
Something like this?

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30. Wishcasterboy
12:56 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
And it is an evening for Pottery is it not?
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29. pottery
8:52 PM AST on November 11, 2006
For your information...... its been raining on me off and on all day, nice gentle showers, courtesy a little fluff from the ITCZ. Made a pretty sunset over the Gulf of Paria as the sun sank into the Andes.
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28. pottery
8:43 PM AST on November 11, 2006
Pleasant evening to all. Everything as it should be ?
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27. Tazmanian
4:07 PM PST on November 11, 2006
wind shaer way 2 high it will not do a thing if it dos
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
26. 882MB
12:04 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
HEY HURRICANE23, RIGHT NOW IM AT MY FRIENDS HOUSE AND HIS INTERNET IS SLOW AND I AM NOT ABLE TO SEE THE MODELS LIKE THE NOGAPS.IF U CAN CAN U PLEASE POST MORE IMAGES LIKE THE ONE U POSTED ABOVE!!!!!!
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25. N3EG
4:01 PM PST on November 11, 2006
A hurricane on Saturn? Really?

Wait a minute - it's at the south pole and Saturn's really cold, so it's extratropical. Never mind...
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24. 882MB
12:00 AM GMT on November 12, 2006
HEY EVERYBODY!!!!JUST LOOKED AT THE NEW 18UTC GFS LOOP SEEMS TO DEVELOP THE LOW RIGHT NOW SOMEWHERE NEAR PANAMA AND MOVES IT ALL OVER THE CARRIBEAN AND THEN HEADING RIGHT TOWARDS S,FLA. STILL TOO LONG TO SEE IF WE MIGHT GET IMPACT OR IF THIS SCENARIO EVEN TURNS OUT BUT AS I JUST READ WHAT MY BUDDY HURRICANE23 SAYS IS THAT OTHER MODELS ARE ALOS DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM.
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23. hurricane23
4:09 PM EST on November 11, 2006
Here's a view at the 12z nogaps....



Complete 12z loop
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21. tropicfreak
3:35 PM EST on November 11, 2006
I'm bored nothing in the atlantic, but I am excited about the winter weather in my area coming up around thanksgiving
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20. Melagoo
8:24 PM GMT on November 11, 2006
This looks cool - for PC only right now :c(

NASA World Wind is available as a full install, or as an update to a previous release. You may use it under the terms of the NASA Open Source Agreement.

http://worldwind.arc.nasa.gov/download.html
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19. Melagoo
8:18 PM GMT on November 11, 2006
What do we call this Storm? Thingaorbitalsolarwindsaturncolossalnasacatastrophiccane

A colossal, swirling storm with a well-developed eye is churning at Saturn's south pole, the first time a truly hurricane-like storm has been detected on a planet other than Earth,
NASA images showed on Thursday.

The storm on the giant, ringed planet is about 5,000 miles

wide, measuring roughly two thirds the diameter of Earth, with winds howling clockwise at 350 mph (550 kph).

spacecane
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18. Wishcasterboy
7:55 PM GMT on November 11, 2006
O.NEW.KPQR.HW.A.0016.061113T0400Z- 061113T1200Z/ LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA- CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY- NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS- CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY- GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS... CLATSKANIE...HILLSBORO... PORTLAND... OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...SALEM... MCMINNVILLE...DALLAS... EUGENE... CORVALLIS...ALBANY...SANDY...SILVER FALLS STATE PARK... SWEET HOME... VIDA...LOWELL...COTTAGE GROVE... LONGVIEW...KELSO... CASTLE ROCK... VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND... WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE... ARIEL...COUGAR 1022 AM PST SAT NOV 11 2006
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA...THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA...THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ...THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE GREATER VANCOUVER AREA AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA...THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA...THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ...THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE GREATER VANCOUVER AREA AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO WASHINGTON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT TRACK AND ARRIVAL TIME OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND IT WILL EFFECT HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE AND WHEN THEY BEGIN. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD BE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL CAUSE STRONG WINDS OVER HE LOWER COLUMBIA...THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA...THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY ...THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS...THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...THE GREATER VANCOUVER AREA AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD WASHINGTON AS MOST COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THEN SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS 60 MPH BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE LOW MOVES INLAND FURTHER SOUTH THEN WINDS WOULD BE LESS AND MIGHT NOT EVEN REACH THE HIGH WIND CATEGORY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

Yahoo!

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17. Wishcasterboy
7:45 PM GMT on November 11, 2006
I'm in winter mode.
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15. hurricane23
2:33 PM EST on November 11, 2006
Good afternoon,

Global models seem in pretty good agreement this afternoon on something tropical developing in the western caribbean...Time will tell if it actually takes place.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
14. LowerCal
11:32 AM PST on November 11, 2006
That's great news Dr. Masters.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.