Typhoon Chebi less destructive than feared
Typhoon Chebi slammed into the main island of Luzon in the Philippines last night at 6pm EST as a Category 3 storm with top winds of 120 mph. There are no reports of deaths yet, and damage appears to be much less than occurred for Super Typhoon Cimaron, which made landfall October 29 as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160-180 mph. Cimaron killed at least 15, left 2500 homeless, and destroyed about 8% of the island's rice and corn crop. However, Chebi was a much weaker typhoon, and dumped far less rain on the Philippines since it moved across the islands relatively quickly. Rainfall estimates by NOAA (Figure 1) show maximum rain amounts from Chebi were in the 4-7 inch range, which should not cause the kind of widespread flash flooding and landslides that are the primary hazard of typhoons in the Philippines. Cimaron dumped about 50% more rain on the Philippines than Chebi did.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for Typhoon Chebi. Image credit: NOAA
Figure 2. Typhoon Chebi shortly after landfall. Image credit: NRL Navy Reasearch Lab.
My next blog will be Monday, when I plan to discuss a new hurricane-like storm found on Saturn.
Jeff Masters
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Go Giants!!!
00Z NAM loop
NOTE:The GFDL is also showing low-pressure in the western caribbean.
Just checking in real quick before going to work The 00z GFS continues being very persistent with development in the southwest caribbean .
I've been reading yesterday's discussion and looking at the forecast models' 00Z runs. It seems they are all more consistent about developing something in the EPac than in the WCar. CMC seems to have practically dropped the WCar feature.
Wonder if we'll see a similar shift at 12Z . . .
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
A BIT AND IT REMAINS LESS OBVIOUS THAN IT WAS A FEW DAYS AGO.
SOME CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
STILL IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. A TROUGH
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N51W AND GOES TO 22N58W...
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N66W...TO THE AREA
OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
IS BEING PRODUCED ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE
IS MOVING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS NORTH OF 15N60W
13N65W 12N70W BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
Hum, got a Sat. down?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
the nhc Mission is help To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic
that what the nhc dos now what is your point stop posting the same thing or i will it ! if you want 2 post it in your blog find but not of dr m blog Please stop posting the same thing evere 5ms none of us give a rate
I'll be off and on this morning. I have a meeting right now, so I'll be back in a bit.
I think it slightly weakened through the night, now 1000mb.
ricderr~ I would like to challenge you to find one current scientific study, that is not funded by an oil company, that says global warming is not in anyway caused by humans. If you do please e-mail it to me & Dr Masters would probibly like a link too as this challenge has been set forth to all in the past & noone thus far has completed the task at hand. Good luck on your quest & remember to check sources & funding carefully.
The National Research Council is part of the National Academies, which also comprise the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and Institute of Medicine. They are private, nonprofit institutions that provide science, technology and health policy advice under a congressional charter. The Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of further knowledge and advising the federal government.
Although warming at Earth's surface has been quite pronounced during the past few decades, satellite measurements beginning in 1979 indicate relatively little warming of air temperature in the troposphere. The committee concurs with the findings of a recent National Research Council report,1 which concluded that the observed difference between surface and tropospheric temperature trends during the past 20 years is probably real, as well as its cautionary statement to the effect that temperature trends based on such short periods of record, with arbitrary start and end points, are not necessarily indicative of the long-term behavior of the climate system. The finding that surface and troposphere temperature trends have been as different as observed over intervals as long as a decade or two is difficult to reconcile with our current understanding of the processes that control the vertical distribution of temperature in the atmosphere.
THE EFFECT OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES
Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural variability inherent in the climate record and the uncertainties in the time histories of the various forcing agents (and particularly aerosols), a causal linkage between the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the observed climate changes during the 20th century cannot be unequivocally established. The fact that the magnitude of the observed warming is large in comparison to natural variability as simulated in climate models is suggestive of such a linkage, but it does not constitute proof of one because the model simulations could be deficient in natural variability on the decadal to century time scale. The warming that has been estimated to have occurred in response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is somewhat greater than the observed warming. At least some of this excess warming has been offset by the cooling effect of sulfate aerosols, and in any case one should not necessarily expect an exact correspondence because of the presence of natural variability.
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