Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Landmark climate change report coming Friday
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on January 31, 2007 +2
Every six years, the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) releases a massive and influential study detailing the state of Earth's climate. This Friday marks the release of the first IPCC report since 2001. To help preview this blockbuster study, I've asked climate expert Dr. Richard Rood to help out. Dr. Rood is a climate modeler and professor of Meteorology at the University of Michigan, and has authored nearly 100 scientific papers on climate change and meteorology. After today's guest appearance on my blog, Dr. Rood will be contributing a series of blogs on climate change that will appear in a new featured "Climate Change" blog. Take it away, ricky!

What is the IPCC?

On February 2, 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is scheduled to release the first of a series of reports that describe the current state of the Earth's climate, how it has changed, and how it is expected to change in the future. "Climate Change 2007" will be definitive and influential. Climate change touches every aspect of society, and there is already controversy associated with the release. This is the first of a series of blogs about climate and climate change; it discusses the process of development of these official assessments.

First, the IPCC is not a research organization, but relies upon research performed and reported by scientists from all over the world. This underlying research is based on observations and the development of testable propositions to determine cause and effect in the behavior of the observations. Sometimes the propositions can be tested with experiments, but more often climate scientists use models to predict the behavior of the observations. Therefore, like weather forecasting, the success or failure of model predictions reveal our level of understanding.

Part of the scientific process is the ability of independent researchers to investigate the observations and extract information. If their conclusions converge, then the independent nature of the investigations adds accountability to the process. That is, there are checks and balances which constantly challenge, check, and re-check the conclusions of individual scientists. The IPCC assesses this body of scientific literature; it is not just the research of the United States; it is the research of the world. It is research hardened by the competition of ideas and honed by the survival of the successful ideas.

The scientists who write the IPCC reports use exquisite rigor. The reports are written by experts drawn from around the world, selected to assure the representation of the members of the United Nations. Draft reports are then reviewed by experts who were not authors of the report. Then there is review by government officials involved in policy making. All told, there are more than 1000 contributing authors, and more than 2000 independent reviewers. All comments are considered in the revisions that lead to the production of the final document. The time commitment is enormous, and the result is a document which is based on the facts of observation and predictions which have been scrutinized to the highest level possible.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program. Their home page is at http://www.ipcc.ch/.

ricky
Categories: Climate Change
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102. weatherboykris 8:44 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
my new blog on NHC models is up.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
105. weatherboykris 8:52 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Enjoy it while it lasts,CB.You won't be on-topic for long!LOL(actually,you probably will be.His next post will probably be on the climate report.)
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
107. weatherboykris 9:02 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
I don't really like talking about climate change.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
108. weatherboykris 9:02 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
personally
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
110. Patrap 9:14 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
24hr CIMSS MIMIC loop of DORA 72Knt Vmax Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
111. hurricane23 9:14 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
catastropheadjuster check your mail!
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13274
112. Patrap 9:16 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
The "latest" MIMIC loop Vmax 85Knts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
113. mikel1 9:16 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
There's an interesting discussion on the IPCC shortcomings here: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1103
Not quite the picture Dr. Rood paints.
114. hurricane23 9:17 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13274
115. weatherboykris 9:19 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Patrap,were are you getting those?And CB,I didn't mean you should stop talking about GW,I just said I don't like to.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
116. Patrap 9:19 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
The Link Here MIMIC Latest Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
117. Patrap 9:20 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
This link..or google "cimss mimic" Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
119. Patrap 9:22 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
SOme more Info on them: Viewing tips: 1) The "[JAVA]" option is the same as the [Animated GIF] option, except that it offers more control over the animation speed; it is recommended only for computers with 1GB of memory and a fast internet connection. 2) Java animations will be removed from the server a few days after the storm ends in order to save disk space. 3) It is usually necessary to reload a webpage in order to view an animated gif that has been updated with new frames
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
120. Patrap 9:23 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
This one could start to trend way down in pressure ...quickly.Should be a whoppa.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
121. Patrap 9:24 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
The structure is good..its in a sweet spot.Should start to do its thing soon.Its hard to follow in real time and get a good feel though.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
122. weatherboykris 9:24 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
thanks.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
123. hurricane23 9:25 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Infrared pic of Dora of the Cimss website.



Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13274
124. Patrap 9:28 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Thats a great look 23.Wow.Bada Storm.Big Bright CDO.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
125. weatherboykris 9:30 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
127. weatherboykris 9:33 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
yep
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
128. Fl30258713 9:34 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
House Oversight & Govt. Cmte Hearing on Climate Change
rtsp://video.c-span.org/15days/e013007_climate.rm?mode=compact
Link

This hearing was great and scary at the same time. It was about 3 1/2 hours long. It was mostly about how the Bush administration has been hindering the ability of government scientist from being able to get information out with out having it drastically edited through Bush administration officials.
The opening statements are a little boring but the interviews of the people on the panel testifying is good.
Scientist in our Government have had months of delays in getting authorizations for media interviews requested, had reports altered in content and meaning and in some case told by the administration what terms the could not use in their reports.
In this hearing it was also mention that other scientist, including those working for the FDA have had reports altered in the favor of commercial interest.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976
130. weatherboykris 9:37 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
I don't get why government people are allowed to review the IPCC report.For what?Let's face it...all they're going to do is pretty it up to make it look like they don't have to do anything.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
132. weatherboykris 9:38 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
I agree STL.For a global model to be showing 970...that's pretty impressive.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
133. weatherboykris 9:39 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
HOWEVER...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
135. weatherboykris 9:42 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Huge winter storms are a sign of global warming?Not your most forceful arguement STL.LOL.But I get what you mean.Those have been ice storms,not snowstorms;which means that the arctic airmasses have been shallow this year.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
139. Thunderstorm2 9:54 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Hi Everyone
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
140. snowboy 9:57 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Mikel, you posted the following:
"There's an interesting discussion on the IPCC shortcomings here: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1103
Not quite the picture Dr. Rood paints."

In fact, there is nothing at that link. If you're going to make snide comments about the IPCC report (which hasn't even been released yet), then at least have the courtesy to provide references! Looks to me more like there's shortcomings in your post and/or understanding of the global warming issue..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
141. Thunderstorm2 9:59 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Perhaps we will see something like this in a day or two, based on the CMC's forecast:
(Picture underneath)

That would be superb
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
143. Thunderstorm2 10:05 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Snow Snow and more Snow
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
145. Thunderstorm2 10:10 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
How do you put up with all the snow flurries?
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
146. weatherboykris 10:11 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
ok then.I'll be back later
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
149. Thunderstorm2 10:34 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
Hi CB
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
150. Thunderstorm2 10:35 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
BwhaaaAAAA!!!!!Bwhaaaa!!!!!!Bwhaaaaa!!!!!!

Are you laughing or crying?
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
151. weatherboykris 10:37 PM GMT on January 31, 2007    
A lot of people have asked that about CB,TS2.I don't get where the confusion comes from.He's laughing.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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