Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The Climate Change Storm

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:14 PM GMT on April 06, 2007

Significant climate change is already occurring, will grow dramatically, and will cause serious disruptions to natural ecosystems and the lives of billions of people world-wide over the coming century. We need to better prepare for the inevitable changes--and attempt to lessen the magnitude of the these changes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. That's the take-home message from today's latest report from the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Every six years, the IPCC releases a huge, influential study detailing the state of Earth's climate. Part 1 of the 2007 report, summarizing the science of climate change, was released in February. Today's summary, titled "Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability" addressed the likely impacts of climate change on Earth's ecosystems and people. Not all of the expected changes will be harmful--the IPCC emphasizes that "impacts of future climate change will be mixed across regions" for temperature rises of 1 to 3 �C above 1990 levels, with the big losers being the poor developing countries. However, if global warming exceeds 2 to 3 �C, the IPCC states it is very likely that all regions of the globe will suffer increased costs or declining benefits. I believe it is the responsibility of every citizen of the planet to take the 30 minutes needed to read the IPCC summary and familiarize themselves with what the world's top scientists say about the likely impacts of climate change. The scope and severity of the Earth-shaking changes that lie ahead present a breathtakingly formidable challenge for humanity.

Figure 1. Locations of significant changes in physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground, hydrology, coastal processes) and biological systems (land, ocean, and freshwater) from 1970 to 2004. Between 90% and 100% of these changes are consistent with warming global temperatures, due in large part to human-emitted greenhouse gases. White areas are where not enough data existed to determine a temperature change. Figure 1 is a simplified form of Figure SPM-1 of the 2007 IPCC document, "Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability--Summary for Policy Makers."

Observed impacts of climate change to date
The IPCC report begins by summarizing observed changes in physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground, hydrology, coastal processes) and biological systems (land, ocean, and freshwater) reported in 577 papers in the scientific literature between 1990 and 2004 (Figure 1). They conclude, "Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases." Examples for which they are highly (80% chance) or very highly confident (>90% chance) of include:

Earlier bird migrations and leaf unfolding
Poleward shifts in the ranges of various plant and animal species
Shifts in the ranges and numbers of ocean species near the poles
Earlier migrations of fish in rivers
Earlier and increased peaks in spring run-off from glacier- and snow-fed rivers
Warming of lakes and rivers
More and bigger glacial lakes
Melting permafrost

Medium confidence effects (50% chance of being true) observed in the Northern Hemisphere include:

Earlier spring planting of crops
Increases in forest fires and pest damage to forests
Heat-related deaths in Europe, spread of disease in some areas, and changes in allergenic pollen
Hunting and travel by humans over Arctic snow and ice

Future impacts
This is where the IPCC report gets very sobering. Keep in mind that the predicted future impacts may be understated, given the cautious nature of scientists--and the fact that the final version was edited by government officials, who changed the original conclusions of the scientists. I'll present just of few of the more mind-boggling impacts (in blue, with my comments in black), and leave the rest for the interested reader to discover:

The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, over-exploitation of resources) (high confidence).
In other words, some ecosystems will collapse, putting the people who depend on these ecosystems in grave peril.
Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable (very high confidence).
Expect damage and human suffering from hurricanes to greatly increase in coming decades, thanks to higher seas levels.
There is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a period of time ranging from centuries to millennia for a global average temperature increase of 1-4 �C (relative to 1990-2000), causing a contribution to sea level rise of 4-6 m or more.
Along with drought and ecosystem collapse, sea level rise is my big concern. Sea level before the most recent ice age was about 4-6 meters (13-20 feet) higher than today, at global temperatures that we expect to match by 2100. The IPCC states that a sea level rise of 0.6-1.9 feet (0.18-0.58 meters) is expected by 2100, and a 4-6 meter rise is not likely for centuries. However, our understanding of the response of glaciers to climate warming is poor. An unexpected rapid partial disintegration of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets later this century raising sea levels by 2 meters (6 feet) has at least a 1% chance of occurring, in my opinion.

Conclusion
The language of the 2007 IPCC climate report is couched in uncertainly, but the broad picture is clear: future climate change may rival or exceed a World War in its effect on society. Steps to lessen its impact and adapt to it need to be made as soon as possible. The cost in lives, dollars, and human suffering will be far greater if we do not.

In his 2006 book, The Revenge of Gaia, philosopher-scientist James Lovelock writes, "I am old enough to notice a remarkable similarity between attitudes over sixty years ago towards the threat of war and those now towards the threat of global heating. Most of us think that something unpleasant may soon happen, but we are as confused as we were in 1938 over what form it will take and what to do about it. Our response so far is just like that before the Second World War, and attempt to appease. The Kyoto agreement was uncannily like that of Munich, with politicians out to show they do respond but in reality playing for time...Battle will soon be joined, and what we face now is far more deadly than any blitzkrieg."

The climate change storm is coming, and the wind is already starting to rise.

Next blog
My next blog will be Monday afternoon or Tuesday. I've got several topics in mind--tornadoes in Chicago, Greenland glaciers, or hurricane model improvements.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Change

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501. bbreaker 10:54 AM GMT on April 08, 2007
I wonder what the chances are of the northestern coast of the US getting a Hurricane this year are ??? We are LONG OVER DUE !!!!!

502. oakland 11:25 AM GMT on April 08, 2007
HAPPY EASTER, DR. MASTERS. Hope you have a wonderful blessed day today. Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7520

503. bbreaker 11:27 AM GMT on April 08, 2007
Happy Easter to ALL

504. bbreaker 11:32 AM GMT on April 08, 2007
I wish Dr Masters and Family Blessed Easter Holiday

505. Jebekarue 12:36 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Hi everyone, I am a lurker but I love this blog, dont know much about the weather but pay attention. But if you check out my blog, I have pictures of Pensacola, FL with ice on Easter Sunday morning. Its not alot but its still ice. Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 230

506. rxse7en 1:30 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Happy Easter all! Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

507. weatherboykris 1:52 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Happy Easter everyone. Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343

508. lilmax 3:28 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Good morning and Happy Easter everyone.

509. charlesimages 3:29 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
HAPPY EASTER TO EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!! MAKE IT AN AWESOME DAY :D Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

510. bbreaker 3:33 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
I wish it were warmer for Easter

511. palmettobug53 3:34 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Dr. M, I hope that you've had a wonderful Easter weekend. Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 21676

512. hurricane23 3:42 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13327

513. Tazmanian 3:48 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
welll went me say that this is the 1st 500 commet blog i have seen this year on dr m blog when was the last time dr m had 500 commets ? oh well any way whats go for 600 commet Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

514. BahaHurican 3:53 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
weatherguy03 said: I see 50 years of cooling and right now about 30 years of warming. Given the current AMO cycle, that will give us about another 20 years of warming followed by another trend downward towards the cold end. Its called a cycle. I see that too. What I also see, however, is that the extent of the warming in this positive part of the cycle already far exceeds the extent of the cooling in the last negative loop. I can see some cause for concern about that. The problem with everybody who's shouting about this argument is that there just isn't enough data. Even if we DO reduce the release of pollutants into the environment, can we be certain it will impact the warming trend? It sure isn't an issue to be ignored . . . Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

515. pensacolastorm 4:04 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
sleet in p'cola on Easter...amazing Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 170

516. AllyBama 4:46 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Christian Glitter by www.christianglitter.com Happy Easter to you and your family Dr. M! Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20504

517. BahaHurican 4:59 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Geez! It took me an hour to read the posts that went up since Friday afternoon! Happy Easter, all! Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

519. BahaHurican 7:07 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Last year may have been below average, but when u average the last two years, it is immediately obvious that activity is still above average. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

523. Inyo 8:07 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
a giant burning cross in the ocean? That's just weird and morbid. also, it seems like Dr Grey is about as spot-on with politics as he was with last year's hurricane forecast - aka totally full of it. comparing Al Gore to Hitler? Come on, I'm no Al Gore fan, but that's ridiculous. At worst, Gore is a hypocrite, not a genocidal mass murderer. Bush has killed way more people than Gore but Bush is nothing compared to Hitler Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 765

524. Thunderstorm2 8:10 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Jaya has finally dissipated and is definitly not expected to reorginize Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608

525. StoryOfTheCane 8:49 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
first blue of the season

526. Patrap 8:52 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Atlantic Season dont begin till June first.The East Pac Season begins May 15th. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112934

527. StoryOfTheCane 9:37 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
thanks captain obvious lol jk

528. Patrap 9:40 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
pretty Blue though..my fav color..LOL! Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112934

529. Thunderstorm2 9:40 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Hmmmm...first blue of the year...more hmmmm Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608

530. StoryOfTheCane 9:41 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
in my opinion the season starts the month the earliest ever recorded storm has occurred, and ends when the latest ever storm occurs. The season should be April-December, regardless of the inactivity in the early and later months. Doesn't mean storms can't occur during these times, and if this global warming phenomenon is true then we might see a significant extension in the typical hurricane season.

531. Patrap 9:42 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
The planet has no EARS..AND CANNOT READ. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112934

532. hurricane23 9:46 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
SST'S are only slightly above normal across the most areas across the atlantic basin.You can have the warmest water on the planet but if current atmospheric conditions dont favor development the chances for a system to flurish is very low.Adrian Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13327

533. StoryOfTheCane 9:48 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
yeah, im not saying im expecting development anytime soon, im just saying you cant rule out something if it has happened before. Obviously you are correct, conditions are not ripe at this time, but can be in a few weeks, its all in the air.

534. hurricanetrak6671 10:43 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
hey guys whats up?

535. weatherboykris 10:51 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
not much Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343

536. StoryOfTheCane 10:55 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
anybody else notice how strange the storm names are for this season?

537. StoryOfTheCane 10:56 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
aww the probability went back to dark purple

538. weatherboykris 10:58 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
No...I didn't notice. Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343

539. plywoodstatenative 10:59 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
anyone remember when we had storms that had these names, but were not retired? Basically what I am asking, is there any other year that anyone remembers that all these names were to become storms at the same time Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

540. weatherboykris 11:02 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
I don't understand the question. Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343

541. ryang 11:02 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
LOL Cane. Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12340

542. plywoodstatenative 11:05 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
I know we had a Hurricane Felix, of the names on the list this year. How many of them became storms, but were not retired. Also of the names on here, were there any that were storms in the same year? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

543. weatherboykris 11:10 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
I'm sorry,but I still don't understand the question.If a name is on the list for this year,it hasn't been retired. Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343

544. ryang 11:15 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
When viewing the ENSO progression from Dec into March as it rapidly transitioned from warm phase toward cooler La Ni�a, it appears oceanic circulation continues to drive cooler SST's into the central ENSO region. Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12340

545. jake436 11:33 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
Yes, but is it the first time a certain name has been used? That, I believe is the question. One or some of the names from 6 years ago may have been retired, and new ones added this year. If none were retired 6 years ago, then all of the names this year were on the list 6 years ago. They are on a 6 year rotation. You can always go check the archives on this site, and see the list from 2001. They should be the same as this year's, unless there are some that were retired after '01. Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271

548. jake436 11:37 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
LinkHere's the list from '01. No storms made a US landfall as hurricanes, but Allison caused so much damage from it's flooding rains in the Houston area, it was retired. I don't know why the other two were retired. Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271

549. StoryOfTheCane 11:42 PM GMT on April 08, 2007
im going with May 11th for the first named system

550. StoryOfTheCane 11:49 PM GMT on April 08, 2007

551. BahaHurican 12:32 AM GMT on April 09, 2007
Allison caused so much damage from it's flooding rains in the Houston area, it was retired. I don't know why the other two were retired. Michelle was a freaky and devastating storm that formed in the W. Caribbean and headed NE out of the basin via Cuba. It did quite a lot of damage there before passing into Bahamian waters, where it basically disappated. I remember watching the satellite image as it was basically shredded by the mountains of Cuba. At the time I likened it to a cat running its claws through fluff. Iris made a run across the Caribbean, hitting southern Belize and Northern Honduras doing quite a bit of damage in the process. NHC says of Iris, "As a result of favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, intensification began and the minimum pressure dropped from 990 mb to 950 mb in about 18 hours and the winds increased from 75 to 120 knots. Iris became a powerful Category Four hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) by 1200 UTC 8 October." Iris was also the storm that capsised the yacht Wave Dancer. It's good to remember that hurricanes don't have to hit the US for their names to be retired . . . Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

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