Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

High tide in New York brings flooding
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:14 AM GMT on April 16, 2007 +0
Winds from the 2007 Nor'easter have pushed a two foot storm surge on top of an unusually high "Spring Tide" into the New York City area at the time of this evening's 7:30pm EDT high tide,(Figure 1). Battering waves on top of the storm surge have undoubtedly caused significant coastal erosion, and possibly damage to some structures along the coast. It could have been worse for New York City, as the peak storm surge of 2.5 feet occurred during the afternoon before high tide. Sustained winds of tropical storm force have been observed most of the day south of Long Island at Ambrose Light, and in Long Island Sound. The situation is worse along the western shores of Long Island Sound, where strong winds have already generated a 3-foot storm surge, which was still increasing in height as of 7:30pm EDT. High tide at King's Point is not until 9:30pm EDT tonight; Long Island Sound may see a destructive 4-foot storm surge at that time (Figure 2).

The Nor'easter is moving slower that expected, and is still centered over North Carolina at 7pm EDT. Central pressure continues to fall rapidly, and is down to 981 mb. The storm is expected to continue to intensify down to 973 mb, and track NNE up the New Jersey coast and over New York City. By 8am EDT Monday, the storm will peak in intensity over Connecticut and stall.


Figure 1. Tidal levels observed at The Battery in New York City as of 7:30pm EDT Sunday April 15. Note that water levels peaked at 2.5 feet above normal during the afternoon, but fell to 2 feet above normal at the time of high tide.

The storm surge from today's storm will rival some of the largest ones ever observed in New York, such as during the "Perfect Storm" of October 31, 1991, and the March 13, 1993 Storm of the Century. The worst coastal flooding in recent years in New York City occurred during the December 11-12 1992 Nor'easter, which damaged as many as 20,000 homes and forced almost 2,000 people to take refuge in emergency storm shelters. Storm surges of 4 feet were recorded near New York City, and 5.5 feet in western Long Island Sound. It is possible that the flooding levels seen in the December 1992 Nor'easter will be exceeded in western Long Island Sound tonight.


Figure 2. Tidal levels observed at King's Point in western Long Island Sound on April 15, 2007.

There is too much other remarkable weather to cover in detail. The entire Northeast coast will see an extended period of storm surge flooding, battering waves, and high winds that will likely cause hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Heavy rains of over four inches have already fallen at New York's Central Park, a tornado from the storm has caused extensive damage in South Carolina that killed one person, and near blizzard conditions are affecting some mountainous regions of New England.

Mount Washington weather
It's a night to hunker down and stay inside at the Mount Washington observatory in New Hampshire. Winds at 8pm EDT were sustained at 70 mph, gusting to 77, and steadily rising. Keep an eye on the history page for Mount Washington to follow the remarkable weather conditions there.

I'll edit this blog tonight to update the water levels and winds, and have a full new blog Monday morning, and there will also be a separate update on the East Coast Winter Storm blog.

Jeff Masters
Fire Flood Rescue (GGGJerseyGuy)
North Eastern Floods New Jersey with heavy rains and wind. Rain totaling up to 5 inche. Here is a photo of a fire rescue in Lodi New Jersey on Main st and Union ave.
Fire Flood Rescue
Sellersville, PA NorEaster (clicks4fun)
Spring deluge - around 1 p.m. - water still rising - roads are being closed - and many more hours of rain to come!
Sellersville, PA NorEaster
Categories: Winter Weather
  Permalink | A A A
Reader Comments
Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
Viewing: 151 - 189

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 — Blog Index

151. Patrap 11:35 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Thats a big drop as it came in on the Buoy data..always impressive to see a drop like that.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
152. Bonedog 11:36 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Patrap I didnt say it was a cat anything I was relating what 965mb pressures to. Sort of an anology. Even the news reports are doing the same.

The winds here are about 12mph gusting 20 so I know its not even a bad wind storm.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
153. stormchasher 11:38 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Will try Pat !! Gotta go out to town and help clean up around the town!
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1295
154. Patrap 11:39 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Certainly...I was just relating how its not WHAT brings the misery..its the effects that count.No slight intended....its only Monday.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
155. Bonedog 11:40 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Local news reporting we are under the "eye" right now. Meaning low winds no precip. within the next few hours though we will see the winds shift to the NW then W and pick up again and get the wrap around moisture.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
156. Patrap 11:41 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
If wandering out in floodwaters..ALWAYS carry a large stick or other implement to probe ahead.We lost 2 people after Katrina in our group to just walking into open submerged manhole covers. A real danger they are..pass the word on that if venturing out Chaser.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
157. PerfectNoreaster07 11:41 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
It appears an eye like feature is trying to develop east of southern New Jersey.
158. Bonedog 11:41 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
High tide expect in the next 10 minutes or so. I will go out and see where the water level is.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
159. Patrap 11:43 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
The backside of that thing ,,is pretty stiff too,..the winds will be gusty. Notice here,..how the isobars are tighter on the coastal land side than the ocean side. Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
160. Patrap 11:45 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
The system has slowed to a crawl as it now organizes and stays around drifting slowly for another day. Things along the coast could become problamatic thru the next 24hours...too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
161. Bonedog 11:46 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Yup. I noticed that earlier this morning when I got my WXFax. The gradient is actually tightest in the southwestern quadrent so I will see my highest winds later this morning into early evening.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
162. Patrap 11:47 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Im sure that Dr. Masters will have an update later this morning for us to see.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
163. Patrap 11:47 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Take prudent measures to stay safe Bonedog..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
164. sxwarren 11:48 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Station 44005 - GULF OF MAINE 78 NM EAST OF PORTSMOUTH,NH (+/- 250 miles from storm center?)

6:40am EDT

29.30" (992.2mb) falling rapidly
18' wave hgt
35kt sustained wind, gusts to 45kts (due east)

.75" rain in Midcoast Maine in the past 2 hours
Member Since: October 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 103
165. Bonedog 11:50 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
check out the storm surge models for the Northeast

Link

Patrap they are forcasting a retrogrde on this system then a departure later Tuesday into Wednesday
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
166. Patrap 11:52 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Yeah..the GFSx showed that could happen Saturday..its going to linger..thats not a good secnario..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
167. Bonedog 11:54 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
check this out.. Link

its a combined IR image of the storm with overlayed wind barbs and significant wave height in feet. I wont spoil the surprise by telling you what it shows
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
168. Patrap 11:55 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Battery Park Tides graph..updated and enlarged..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
169. Patrap 11:57 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
This mornings high tide just surpassed last nights here at the Battery..due to the slowing and lingering..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
170. Bonedog 11:57 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Link

check the link out to see how high the rivers in my area are running. BTW purple dots signify major flooding. Click any dot to see update height.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
171. Bonedog 11:59 AM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Ok 3 minutes past high tide here going to look at the water level.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
172. IKE 12:01 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Check out the pressure at Central Park!

"Observed at: Central Park, New York
Elevation: 89 ft / 27 m
[Light Rain]
44 °F / 7 °C
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 42 °F / 6 °C
Wind: 9 mph / 15 km/h / 4.1 m/s from the North
Pressure: 28.64 in / 970 hPa (Rising)
Windchill: 39 °F / 4 °C
Visibility: 2.0 miles / 3.2 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 700 ft / 213 m
(Above Ground Level)".......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047
173. weathersp 12:06 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Final Rain Total for Severna Park,MD is 2.67" and the lowest pressure recorded is 982.2mb or 29.01" Highest wind gust so far today is 41 mph out of the NW.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112
174. Bonedog 12:14 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Back. water level is just below the top of the piers!! Just thanking God that the winds have shifted to the NW and the waves are being knocked down a little. If this was stil an East wind then we would be overtoped.

Rain is starting to pick up and so is my baramoter.. showing 966.2 and rising. That makes the 964.4mb earlier the lowest reading on mine. 964 amazing for a non tropical system (pressure equal to a strong cat 2 low cat 3) Im just glad wind speeds didnt equal pressures or we would have been in deep trouble here.

We are looking at our strongest winds later today. NWS is reporting 25 to 35mph gusts to 40 for later today. I am wondering how many power outages will result due to the saturated ground being able to release its grip on trees once the winds pick up.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
175. Patrap 12:24 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Best be glad it isnt Aug or Sept Bonedog..this in a way.. is a good eye-opener to many.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
176. Bonedog 12:28 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Oh yea it did. Folks should heed this. Imagine if we had higher winds.. I think towns and cities will update emergency managment plans.

We still havent seen the end of the rain and the rivers are way above flood stage already. On my way home I will try and stop by the local dam and shoot some photos of the spill over. They are calling for a historical crest at the dam later today.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
177. Bonedog 12:47 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
impressive looking storm.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
178. TheShovler3 1:05 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
I live in south east NY by the CT,MA, NY border, recieved over 6.5" of rain and nearly everything is flooding over, the only good thing here is the terrain is hilly enough not to create massive widespread flooding. We have a pond which overspread its banks and is 4 times orginal size hit our electrical box whiped it out and is now smoking. Should be fun registered a wind gust at 59mph
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
179. HopquickSteve 1:09 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
The lowest pressure I stumbled across was in NJ at about 956.9hPa. That's really low.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 634
180. ajcamsmom 1:13 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Just thinking...I am just glad that enough notice was given for those with good common sense to prepare for this. I also went ahead and looked at the 1993 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which did not look too bad to me. I did notice that the SST's are a bit higher this year. All in all, I would not mind copying that year's Hurricane Season this time around. At least from what I could tell of it.
181. SteveDa1 1:14 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
956.9hPa? Are you sure it's not 965.9hPa? Cause that's really low...

Anyways, someone was laughing at me when I said it would get down betwee 965-970mb and the pressure at New York City as of 9:00AM is 969.6mb.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057
183. TAC9 1:20 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
My pressure is currently 988mb in Brockton, Mass (South Shore). We have had about 2 1/2" of rain so far. Right now we have light rain and the winds have really died down. Does anyone think my pressure will drop further?
184. SteveDa1 1:22 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
956.9 is correct:

But the center of the low is clearly over long Island so isn't that where the lowest pressure would be?
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057
185. CrazyDuke 1:25 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Is it me or is an eyewall trying to organize on top of Long Island?
Member Since: February 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
186. Patrap 1:27 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
if 956.9..was/is...Id be really impressed.LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633
187. DocBen 1:55 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Crazy - got a link for that? I'd love to see that in motion.

I was in a storm once near Chicago that had an eye. Wind and rain; then suddenly clear; then return wind/rain from the opposite direction.
Member Since: May 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
188. tara77 1:56 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Here in Port Jervis, Ny we have a 974.2Pa. We have had approx 7.27" of rain since yesterday morning. Rivers are up there and schools are closed in fear of flooding situation. At 8am the Delaware in Port Jervis was 9.98 and begining flood stage is 12feet.
189. seminolesfan 2:23 PM GMT on April 16, 2007    
Has anyone looked at the winds on Mt. Wash this AM?

108 mph sustained, w/gusts to 137!!
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726

Viewing: 151 - 189

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 — Blog Index

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.
Post Your Comments
Please sign in to post comments.
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Community Activity