Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tornado smashes small Kansas town; major tornado outbreak today

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:30 PM GMT on May 05, 2007

A terrible scene--played out all too often in 2007--happened again last night in Greensburg, Kansas. The sirens sounded, warning of an advancing tornado, but the black of night hid the 3/4-mile wide monster twister approaching from the southwest. The residents of this small town of 1600 had time to find safe shelter, but the tornado was so powerful, that even sturdy buildings could not protect the residents. The tornado destroyed or heavily damaged 90% of the town, destroying the central business district, city hall, and the high school. Eight people died, plus one more person 30 miles away. Damage surveys are not yet complete on the tornado, but photos I've seen of the destruction show damage consistent with EF4 winds(168-199 mph). It is possible the storm was an EF5 (winds more than 200 mph). The ten deaths yesterday bring the U.S. tornado death toll to 69 so far this year, three more than the toll for all of last year. For those interested, I've saved a 1 Mb animation of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado (thanks to Wunderblogger redefined for saving these!) The animations show some very strong rotation and odd swirling behavior that I don't recall ever seeing in a tornado radar animation before.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss was out chasing yesterday and caught some of the storms; be sure to tune into his blog over the next few days to read his chase accounts.

Figure 1. Radar image of the strom that spawned the Greensburg, KS tornado of May 4, 2007.

Major severe weather outbreak today expected
More strong (EF2 and EF3) or violent (EF4 and EF5) tornadoes are possible again tonight, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put a large area of Kansas and Nebraska under its highest risk level, "High Risk". This is the fourth time this year that SPC has issued its "High Risk" forecast. The last time it did so, on April 24, an EF3 tornado struck the Mexico/Texas border near Eagle Pass, killing ten (the "High Risk" area defined by SPC was actually a bit north of where the tornado struck). Tornadoes have already been reported in Colorado and Nebraska today, so tune into our severe weather page and radar page to follow the outbreak.

Coastal Carolina storm
The latest (8am EDT) computer forecast models continue to show a moderately strong coastal storm developing several hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Monday. The storm will be extratropical in nature when it forms. It will bring strong winds and high surf to the Carolina coast for several days early next week, as it meanders offshore. Water temperatures are 22-23 C off of the coast, which may be warm enough to allow the low to acquire some subtropical characteristics and become the season's first named storm. However, none of the models are showing this, and I put the odds of a Subtropical Storm Andrea forming next week at about 10%.

Jeff Masters

LP Supercell with Wallcloud (MikeTheiss)

Lightning 5-4-07 (kshippychic)

Categories: Tornado

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251. kmanislander 3:52 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
HCFC Too true. Every year has some quirk to it Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

252. HurricaneFCast 3:53 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
GFS Shows more westward movement towards land, and still a decently strong low... 1004mb. Well, i'm going to sleep, work tomorrow, and see how this plays out. It's not good to get to worked up over what, at the most, could become a weak TS, especially with 80Kt Wind shear.... Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482

253. kmanislander 3:53 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
catch you all tomorrow gnite Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

254. MZT 3:54 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
The GFS, like the NAM shows that low deepening rapidly tomorrow. By tomorrow evening, I'm sure we'll be actively speculating what it will do. At least there will be something to evaluate, as opposed to waiting for something to arrive. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

256. lilmax 3:54 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1019 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007 OKC045-060345- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-070506T0345Z/ ELLIS OK- 1019 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY... AT 1019 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF HARMON OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY. SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING POWER FLASHES WITH THIS STORM INDICATING EITHER A TORNADO OR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE THE TORNADO WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN RURAL AREAS OF ELLIS COUNTY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF HARMON. LAT...LON 3598 9962 3591 9954 3595 9938 3620 9938 $$ ..SPEG. All these warnings popping up. Scary stuff.

257. Jedkins 3:58 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
That "mini hurricane" is what they call a MESO low, they can be producers of very dangerous tornados possibly, often very intense winds as well. I have seen them here in Florida, they can be quite violent, we had a tornado warning at he tim when one went over me, that was back in Febuary..,

258. RL3AO 3:58 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
I'll be going to bed here in a minute. Hopefully we dont lose any more cities tonight. But this was a hell of an outbreak. I've never seen so many severe storms hit the same places over and over again.

259. sfranz 3:58 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
The Iowa storms have linked up and think they want to play at being an eyewall (spinning clockwise.) Link Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 149

260. franck 3:59 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
I've never seen a cropping of clouds over an area that size. Kansas is a very large state. Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150

261. StormJunkie 3:59 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
Alright y'all I am out. The 00z GFS looks interesting. Be interesting to see the phase evolution for this run. anywho, I am off to bed. See everyone tomorrow. Models and much more....Quick Links Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218

262. Bamatracker 4:00 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
night all that are leaving!!! Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

263. Jedkins 4:00 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
I am ver concerned with what I'm seeing across the plains, there are so many storms capable od being destructive out there tonight its rediculous, and they are only becoming even more numerous... Lets not forget how bad flooding can be as well, its often called the silent killer, and serious flooding is occurring this evening as well.

264. MZT 4:01 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
I would agree, this possible system off the Carolinas is small beer. If it does become a named system, it'll probably be milder than Alberto, and just bring rain somewhere. But, after all, we are pinheads on a tropical weather blog -- so, we gotta discuss it! :-) Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

265. lilmax 4:02 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
I can tell that tonight will be a busy night for amateur and professional meteorologist bloggers here tonight.

266. StoryOfTheCane 4:02 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
it will not become a named system, simply a big thunderstorm.

267. Bamatracker 4:04 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
GFS has a 1008 low into S. Carolina wed morning....looks like a rainmaker!! Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

268. Bamatracker 4:08 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
im out for tonight!!! have a good night everyone. Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1364

269. lilmax 4:08 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
If the steering winds stay that way and if that system does in fact form, Florida might have something to contend with. Though we need the rain but not the wind.

270. StoryOfTheCane 4:08 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
GFS predicts favorable Shear in the Southern Caribbean between the dates of May 11 & May 20 GFS

271. lilmax 4:10 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
I really feel bad for those folks living in the Central Plains, having all those bad storms, it is crazy.

272. lilmax 4:16 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
Good news, the area covered by the Tornado Watches are getting smaller. All of this could be done around 2:30 AM EDT!

273. lilmax 4:18 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
Good night folks, my thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the severe weather. Good night and be safe.

274. flibinite 4:19 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
Thanks, Jedkins... what a mess out there, even in the places that don't get tornados. I'll bet there are a lot of people in those states who won't even go to bed tonight, scared and worrying... :-( Jo Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 256

275. Jedkins 4:22 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
the area covered by tornado watches may be getting stronger, but at least in the short term where severe storms do exsist, they are trending more numerous amd more ibtense. After all its not about the watch boxes, its about the warningings, watch boxes only mean anticipation, not necceas

276. Jedkins 4:23 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
Heck we had numerous severe thunderstorm warnings and reports of hail in Florida today, but there was no watch box

277. Jedkins 4:24 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
Heck we get lots of severe storms throughout the wet season here in Florida along the seabreeze collisions and never get any watch boxes.

278. Jedkins 4:25 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
sorry about my terrible typos, hope you could read everything alright everyone lol

279. weatherboykris 4:29 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
Well,for a watch you need a large scale synoptic situation to cause the storms.Sea breeze thunderstorms are too unpredictable for a watch. Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343

280. Jedkins 4:35 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
ya thats the true reson why they aren't. I wish they'd be able to issue watches eventually for our summer type pattern events, it would be usefull. But right now its just not practical. Plus anyone who has lived here as long as me doesn't a severe watch box to be on alert when the sea breeze storms crank up iun the wet season.

281. Tazmanian 4:50 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
the photos you are seeing are from Greensburg and has you can see it is gone Downtown Greensburg lies in ruins Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

282. lilmax 5:09 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
I'm back, couldn't sleep. What's up everyone? Nice pics taz, scary stuff.

283. Tazmanian 5:12 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
we are come overe to my blog lilmax no one her right now Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

286. MZT 11:31 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
For our possible Atlantic sotrm -- The 0600 models are forecasting a sub 1000 millibar low to form Tuesday, but that it will then weaken Wednesday and slosh ashore somewhere. Nogaps says Florida... GFS says South Carolina... Canadian can't even decide to bring it ashore. Most of the advisories are referring to this as a "cut-off low" and not describing it as tropical. Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

287. weatherboykris 11:41 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
Tropical systems technically are cut off lows. Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343

288. MZT 11:53 AM GMT on May 06, 2007
New blog is up Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 775

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