Another wild night in Tornado Alley
The sirens sounded two more times in tornado-ravaged Greensburg, Kansas last night, as two more twisters tore through the county. However, both tornadoes missed populated areas, as did most of the approximately 75 tornadoes that touched down yesterday. The action should quiet down considerably today; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed most of Kansas and Nebraska under its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather. Sweetwater, Oklahoma received significant damage from a tornado last night, and we've saved 300 Kb animations of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado.
It will take a long time for Greensburg to recover from Friday's tornado. To get an idea of the scale of devastation, see the aerial photos posted by the Wichita Eagle. Damage surveys are not yet complete on the tornado, but photos I've seen of the destruction show damage consistent with EF4 winds(168-199 mph). It is possible the storm was an EF5 (winds more than 200 mph). The nine deaths from the tornado bring the U.S. tornado death toll to 68 so far this year, two more than the toll for all of last year.
We've saved some extraordinary 1 Mb animations of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado. I asked wunderground meteorologist and tornado expert Rob Carver to comment on what's going on in the animations, and here was his analysis:
This was likely an example of cyclic mesocyclogenesis. In a nutshell, the rear-flank downdraft surges out, wraps around and occludes the mesocyclone (Meso A for short). Meso A then veers to the left and dies, this is why tornado family members curve to the left as they dissipate. While Meso A is dying, a new meso spins up and becomes the dominant meso. Now, while I've seen plenty of simulated cyclic cases where the hook retreats when Meso A occludes, I don't think I've seen anything as dramatic.
Figure 1. Radar image of the storm that spawned the Greensburg, KS tornado of May 4, 2007, showing the clearly defined hook echo associated with the twister.
Coastal Carolina storm
The latest (8pm EDT) computer forecast models continue to show a moderately strong coastal storm developing several hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Monday. The storm will be extratropical in nature when it forms. We'll have a lot of time to watch the storm, as it is expected to meander offshore for five days and gradually weaken. Water temperatures are 22-23 C off of the coast, which may be warm enough to allow the low to acquire some subtropical characteristics and become the season's first named storm. The models are hinting that the storm could remain over water long enough for this to happen, and I put the odds of a Subtropical Storm Andrea forming late this week at about 20%.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss was out chasing yesterday and caught some of the storms; be sure to tune into his blog over the next few days to read his chase accounts. Stormchaser Dan Robinson posted some video stills of the Greensburg tornado.
Jeff Masters
A big storm moved in on the 3rd. Wasn't as bad as it looked though.
Reader Comments
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EF4 damage picture
OK maybe you confused me or something...the high in the NE is a surface high and it has nothing todo with this system in strength. There is a deep trough over the central U.S. and with that it amplifys the heights east of the Mississippi....taking anything down S to SW towards the SE coast or under 30N. The system will be cold core..but as it tries to pick up tropical characteristics....it will weaken....and when it does...it will maybe again move S with the LLF from the high in the eastern GOM by later Friday.
I am talking about the high controlling where the system goes. As of now, i don't think you can say definately that this system will be a cold core through its life. There are alot of things that have to happen.
scott, that surface high will block the low from moving north no? And is it not what is pushing the low South?
thats what i am saying. The high has nothing to do with its strength. It could gain tropical characteristics due to SST. And there shear is forcasted to drop quite dramtically. lets see what the NHC says about the system at 2:00 pm and then base our discussion of that.
How are you guys going ?
☺
BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON OUT TO 36N 70W TO 34N 71W
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
...N WALL OF GULF STREAM NEAR 35N 75.3W...36.2N 74.4W...36.8N
72.6W...37.3N 72W...
.THIS AFTERNOON...N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT NW PORTION AND E TO SE 25
TO 35 KT SE PORTION...BECOMING N TO NE THROUGHOUT AND INCREASING
TO 40 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT 50 TO 65 KT NEAR THE GULF STREAM...AND
SHIFTING WINDS 25 TO 35 KT OVER FAR SE PORTION. SEAS 4 TO 8
FT... EXCEPT 8 TO 13 FT FAR W PORTION...BUILDING TO 12 TO 18
FT... EXCEPT TO 26 FT NEAR THE GULF STREAM...AND 6 TO 12 FT OVER
FAR SE PORTION. RAIN AND TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING NE 35 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT 45 TO 60 KT
FROM THE GULF STREAM SE. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 22 FT...EXCEPT
22 TO 32 FT FROM THE GULF STREAM SE. RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
.MON...E TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT 35 TO
50 KT FROM THE GULF STREAM SE. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT...EXCEPT 20 TO
30 FT FROM THE GULF STREAM SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON NIGHT...E TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 40 KT...HIGHEST
NEAR THE GULF STREAM...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 KT N OF 36N. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 11 TO 18 FT...EXCEPT TO 24 FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S.
.TUE...E TO NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 10 TO
15 KT OVER FAR NW PORTION. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 14
FT...HIGHEST SW.
.WED...WINDS BECOMING E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6
TO 9 FT LATE...HIGHEST SW.
.THU...S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT.
$$
It's already having hurricane force winds!
Pottery you have mail...
Thanks for the update Dr Masters!
Wow, those folks just cannot catch a break; hope these storms leave them alone for a long time so they can rebuild their lives and their town.
Everyone have a beautiful Sunday.
The Florida surfer-dudes and dudettes must be waxing up all now so...............
Would not want to be boating out there this week.......
Large waves are certainly caused by wind duration, as well, obviously. But prevailing current has an effect too. Opposing current will cause waves to " back-up " and become steeper and more dangerous. Also, once a wave has become larger than the ones around it, it catches more wind, and becomes faster moving. It then overtakes other large waves and adds them to its mass. Eventually the wave cannot sustain its own height ( its water, after all ) and it falls over ( breaks )
Scared the 4 of us to silence for a long time while we put the boat back together.
Dont want to do that again.........
91 f
52 % humid.
98 F with the heat index
This is not what a tropical island is supposed to be man.
I'm running out of beers !!!!!!!!!!!!
UKMET:Also into Florida
GFS:Near miss,remnents move south into FL after Georgia landfall.
NAM:Essentially the same as the GFS,but has te system meandering off SC at the end of it's run,future uncertain.
CMC:Near NC at the end of it's run.
Viewing: 101 - 151
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