Warmest January-April on record; new record Arctic sea ice minimum

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on May 17, 2007

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April 2007 was the third warmest April for the globe on record, and the first four months of 2007 were the warmest ever, according to statistics released this week by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for April was 1.19�F/0.66�C above the 20th century mean. Over land, April global temperatures were the warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (seventh warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event.

April temperatures were particularly warm across portions of Europe and Siberia, where readings of 5�C (9�F) above average were common (Figure 1). The UK recorded its warmest and driest April on record. In the U.S., April ranked near normal in temperature, but a record cold snap hit the eastern half of the country April 4-10, setting 900 daily low temperature records. The long duration of the cold outbreak, combined with the large number of hours that remained below freezing, and strong winds that occurred in many areas, contributed to crop losses that could reach into the billions of dollars. The damaging effects of the record cold were made worse by near-record warmth in March that helped induce an earlier spring blossom--in some cases two weeks prior to crop development in 2006. More than 2,500 daily record-high temperatures were set in the contiguous U.S. in March, and it was our second warmest March on record.

April's cold snap in the U.S. shows that although the globe as a whole may be warming, there is still plenty of natural variability capable of bringing very cold weather to local regions.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for April 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Arctio sea ice extent
After three months of not recording a record monthly minimum, sea ice extent in the Arctic recorded a new record low extent in April. The record warmth of the first four months of 2007, combined with the 8th lowest snow cover on record observed in winter 2006/2007, combined to produce the record low ice extent (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for April, for the years 1979-2007. April 2007 set a new record for the lowest Arctic sea ice extent measured. April sea ice coverage has declined about 9% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Atlantic storms
The computer models have been forecasting development of several low pressure systems along the East Coast over the next few days. All of these lows will be non-tropical in nature, due to the high levels of wind shear. The models are beginning to hint that wind shear could relax over the ocean waters north of Panama next week, and we may have to watch that area for tropical development if the shear does indeed relax as forecast.

Jeff Masters

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460. kmanislander
4:09 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
TRR

The model runs I have looked at show the low in the Caribbean crossing over central Cuba and then E of Fla.
For something to get up into the Gulf in May would be difficult with upper level westerlies still in control that far N but it can happen. Some years ago a storm formed on June 1 st and passed W of us and then up the W coast of Fla.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
459. lightning10
9:07 AM PDT on May 18, 2007
So Cal...

Long term...little change in the overall pattern Monday and Tuesday..with
broad trough gradually moving eastward into The Rockies and flat upper
ridge pushing into the west CST. Expect areas of night through morning
low clouds and fog on the coastal plain and locally in the valleys...
with temperatures changing little...remaining close to normal for late
may in most areas west of the mountains...and a few degrees above normal in the
mountains and dsrts. The upper high spread across the area Wednesday and
Thursday...while at the surface on shore grads weaken all the way to near neutral
for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Marine layer should shrink...and low
clouds likely will remain confined to the coastal plain. Expect several
degrees of warming Wednesday and Thursday...especially west of the mountains...if the
models are correct.

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458. Thunderstorm2
4:06 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
As i said last night if the ITCZ set up more north than it's July position then we would be looking at one big season.

d
Figure 1: Position of the ITCZ in July (red) and in January (blue).
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456. TexasRiverRat
4:01 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
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455. TexasRiverRat
3:59 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Did you see the other invest on NHC to the east of the other.. Its really spinning but it doesnt have any shower activity with it.
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454. kmanislander
3:57 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Shear is now low just N of Panama and the tendency is towards declining shear building into the NW Caribbean over time
Link
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453. TexasRiverRat
3:54 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
This Low to develop in the NW Carribean, Is it suppose to move toward the gulf or just shoot up through Fla.? Any ideas?
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452. Thunderstorm2
3:53 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
91L is clearly cold-core so i have absolutly no idea why the named it.

The NHC's floater 1 just says Invest but not an number
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450. kmanislander
3:48 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Posted By: watchinwxnwpb at 3:47 PM GMT on May 18, 2007.

I am with you on that one HobeSoundShuterrs! Some minor relief of smoke was given for a couple days. It would be a shame to see it worsen. Those poor people virtually prisoners in their homes!

BTW- Morning KMAN


good morning to you too
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449. kmanislander
3:47 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
From Ramsdis
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448. watchinwxnwpb
11:40 AM EDT on May 18, 2007
I am with you on that one HobeSoundShudders! Some minor relief of smoke was given for a couple days. It would be a shame to see it worsen. Those poor people virtually prisoners in their homes!

BTW- Morning KMAN
Member Since: September 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
447. kmanislander
3:45 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
HSS

There is a low just N of Panama under the ridge that is sitting there.
Hopefully all it brings is good rain for us all LOL
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445. kmanislander
3:35 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Tell me oh wise one, will 91L be named ?

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443. watchinwxnwpb
11:30 AM EDT on May 18, 2007
Tx Taz. Thought it would be, just wasn't sure. This "invest" should move nne. right? Are there any factors in there that could possibly change it's direction?
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441. Tazmanian
3:28 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
watchinwxnwpb off the E coast
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439. watchinwxnwpb
11:22 AM EDT on May 18, 2007
where is that Taz? Also, I read a discussion on here not too long ago about the correlation of May rainfall (or should I say lack thereof) & more storms forming. Does anyone remember this? If so, what is the bottom line on that theory. Thank You!
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438. Tazmanian
3:20 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
91L is her


winds 40kt 1009mb

lol
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437. IKE
10:08 AM CDT on May 18, 2007
Looks like the next front stalls in the NW GOM.

This from the Houston,Texas extended..

"Front should stall near
or just off the coast Thursday with dry weather expected the
remainder of the period."
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436. sullivanweather
2:41 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
De'disaster, here's the problem with your 'smoking gun' charts.

1. It only shows ONE out of NINE areas that hurricanes develop.

2. Data before the satellite era might as well be considered a very good approximation. There were sure to be storms in many of those years that formed well out in the ocean and merged with a frontal system before being discovered by some passing ship. With satellites we now see and number these storms. Hell, at the end of the year satellite data is looked over with a fine-tooth comb and previously unknown cyclones are found. Furthermore how could intensity of open ocean cyclones be determined during the disputed time-frame with any accuracy?

Again, show solid undisputable proof. What you provided is merely incomplete data.

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435. IKE
10:04 AM CDT on May 18, 2007
Long-term forecast from Mobile,Al...

"Long term [saturday through thursday]...east Continental U.S. Upper longwave
trough will lift to the northeast over the weekend...with surface-h70
high pressure building across the southeast states. Large scale
subsidence and a very dry air mass will continue to dominate the
region through Tuesday...with no rain in the forecast. An area of
low pressure will form across the Caribbean Sea south of the stalled
cold front...while a weak easterly waves moves across the Gulf the
middle of next week. A more established easterly flow will bring low
level moisture back into the area...with precipitable water values
climbing from 0.5 inch to around 1.5. This will occur ahead of a
cold front moving across the deep south. Isolated rain showers
should approach the shores from the southeast on early Wednesday...
and spread inland throughout the day. The best chance of showers and
thunderstorms (scattered coverage) will occur on Thursday as the
cold front enters the forecast area. /22".......

I wonder if that front will stall?
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434. IKE
9:58 AM CDT on May 18, 2007
Latest NAM run 12 UTC has a 1008mb low in the western Caribbean in 84 hours.Link

It might be jumping the gun?
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433. weatherboykris
2:51 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Morning guys.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
432. mrpuertorico
10:43 AM AST on May 18, 2007
Another day of intense dust is instore for the antilles today! Not much in the way of development if the sal keeps marching into the caribbean.
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431. Drakoen
2:43 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 2:42 PM GMT on May 18, 2007.

No need to wait for development in the Atlantic if you want to track a storm:


looks very impressive. Looks there there is an eye trying to form too. If only Andrea....

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430. quakeman55
2:42 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
The CMC takes that same system the GFS hints at and puts it off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras by that same time period.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
428. Drakoen
2:39 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
The GFS seems to be indicating development in the Carribean next week Saturday. With the Low corssing over cuba and affecting parts of Souheast Florida.
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427. watchinwxnwpb
10:29 AM EDT on May 18, 2007
Good morning everyone!! I hope everyone is feeling well on this fine day. You would all be relieved to know that everyone has removed their fangs, been pardoned for murder & manslaughter charges & Yes!! we all are once again promoted!
Member Since: September 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
426. Thunderstorm2
2:32 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Hey Guys.
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425. G35Wayne
2:28 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Maybe if we all stop FARTING we can slow global warming down! now enough about it already this is a tropical Blog!!
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424. lightning10
7:22 AM PDT on May 18, 2007
May is almost over meaning that the weather in June will have to be more interesting here in So Cal. I will take anything from heat wave to desert Thunderstorms. Anything is better then this AM clouds Afternoon sunshine deal.
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423. desertdisaster
2:17 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
This is just for my good friend Sullvan who said to H2PV, you have it all wrong; Hurricanes, droughts, and floods have occured for a vast majority of the Earth's existance. In fact, I bet that you can't prove an increase in frequency in either of the above three mentioned events. Well! look at this:Link

Don't wory! I am out of here and GW stuff...
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422. Patrap
9:00 AM CDT on May 18, 2007
Environmental Modeling Center Global Modeling Branch

DAILY WEATHER MAPS Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125624
421. IKE
8:57 AM CDT on May 18, 2007
I haven't seen this posted on here. The 06 UTC GFS..has at least 2 lows affecting the NW Caribbean/GOM...Link
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420. horizondb
1:36 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Patrap....Thank You for put this debate to rest (hopefully even for a day) in such a wonderful way.
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419. kmanislander
1:25 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Hi Storm

I have to get to work myself so will catch up with u later
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417. kmanislander
1:20 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
Hi Nash

Haven't seen you on since last season. Welcome back
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416. kmanislander
1:19 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
good morning all

The high in the S Caribbean is building to the North and there is a marked increase in the thunderstorm activity underneath it. IMO this is the next area to watch for any signs of development

Link
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414. Patrap
8:14 AM CDT on May 18, 2007
I hate blushing nash28. We lubs yall too.
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413. Patrap
8:13 AM CDT on May 18, 2007
nash28 is a good blogger and blog. Regular folk.
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412. nash28
1:12 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
We all love ya Pat!

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411. emagirl
1:12 PM GMT on May 18, 2007
sorry i did not know you had one but i will check it out too
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410. Patrap
8:11 AM CDT on May 18, 2007
Now Im crushed..LOL.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125624

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.