Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Thanks Dr.Masters, those rains are coming over the GOM, could move as far as Florida.

Good morning Dr. Masters. What are your thoughts on the area of disturbed weather in the Carribean? Some of the models are hinting at a possible TD in the next few days.

I thought that I would repost this since Dr. Masters made an update at the same time I sent mine through.

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From JustCoasting:

Gainesville not sure what you can do anymore than we do here in charlotte county as far as building codes go have any ideas .I am a building contractor and interested in hearing what you think
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For starters, building houses & other properties that cost more per square foot is always a tough sell. Builders don't want to do it & people don't want to pay for it. We are at a point when it will cost more in the long run NOT to build structures better. For example, investing $40,000 more for a 2,000 SQ Ft house might seem unreasonable at first glance. What if doing so will save you $6,000 or more per year in insurance costs? You earn your money back in less than 7 years. The 40K # was just pulled out of thin air as an example of how the current mind set is. I am hoping that this number is much less. The current active cycle may last another 30 years so insurance costs may go up significantly from here.

A good idea would be for Governer Crist to get structural experts together from both private & public sources. There are probably dozens of Engineering Colleges in the SE alone. The minimum standard should be that houses be able to withstand cat 3 hurricanes with minumal damage. In more hurricane prone areas of the state we should up that to at least cat 4. There should be a sense of urgency getting the best intellectual minds together in reaching a consensus on what needs to be done.

It comes down to this: Pay now for better structures or pay out annually with higher propery insurance. I think it will be far more painful for people to pay out for Insurance & the deductibles when actual damage is done.

Here is one idea I have that people like to dump on: do away with shingle roofs. I saw way too much roof damage in Palm Beach & Broward Counties after Wilma. Keep in mind that this was only a category 2 storm. Blue tarps where everywhere. I am thinking that we should make the roofs out of either lightweight concrete or some other solid material & then spray on a rubberized like coating on top of it. I am also thinking to going back to block houses exclusively as opposed to wood frame ones. Hurricane shutters for windows are a must. Here in Gainesville I don't see any hurricane shutters anywhere.

I feel there is no political will to change the current building codes in the state. To use an analogy: the existing housing in the state of Florida is like another 9-11 waiting to happen. Not being an alarmist but a strong cat 4 or 5 hurricane has the potential to cause $100 billion + in damages to the Tampa area or the SE Florida coast. Unfortunately, this may be the only thing that can change the buiding codes in this state.

lots of flaring up going on around the carribean

Hi, Dr. Masters. Can you talk about tropics for the next few days?

Convection has really been on the increase down in the SW caribbean threw the morning hours and iam starting to think we might see some development down there.Hopefully we can get that entire mess over south florida for some much needed rainfall.As far as tropical cyclone development we just going to have to wait and see if the convection continues to persist.some hints of of a ciculation are evident on satellite imagery.

IR Rainbow View of the area

Yes I agree...there seems to be some sort or circulation present. The moisture needs to be drawn into that though...and convection has to maintain itself for anything to potentially happen. Visible satellite imagery gives a good look

I agree Adrian. I've been watching that area since last night. It has a 850mb vort max so there is some mid-level spin. I think that if the shear continues to slacken the way it has this morning, we could see something try to develop out of that.

Why is most of the convection well east of the circulation? Shear?

Yes IKE, the strong winds blowing from the west at the upper levels are blowing the tops of the t-storms to the east. That's usually how storms look early in the season, with the convection all on the east side. Arlene and Alberto, the first storms of 2005 and 2006 were both lopsided storms like that.

Thanks Levi....

Here's the 12 UTC GFS...appears to have the system crossing central Cuba....effecting south Florida...then turning NNE with an apparent cold front next weekend...Link

New intensity model to be out in june-See Here

Morning H23 et al - nice to see you!

anything good brewing?

Good morning mel. Take a look north of Columbia:



That's what we are currently watching for possible trouble the next couple days. Shear is lowering so it needs watching.

Hey Melwerle maybe good afternoon hows everything?Something brewing maybe down in the SW caribbean in the next couple of days.

oooohhh...well take a look at THAT.

Doing well this morning - how is everyone? No rain here in GA...guess I should water my dead lawn. Anyone for playing in MUD?

12 UTC CMC has the system crossing eastern Cuba...cruising through the Bahamas and heading north..missing Florida...Link

i notice that shear is going down in that area on shear map

Looks interesting IKE.

hey storm junkie-you had some pics of sst's on jeff's last blog. i was wondering which dates the pics are from. i think the first pic is this year-not sure which the second one was from. thanks todd

lol JP! Wooo hoooo...playing the mud! Now if we could only have a few good rain showers, we could all go play in the rain (geez...seems like years since I've done THAT).

On the Quicksat there's not a closed low level circ, but there is a definate bend in the wind field.

Link

(btw-this qsat is 10 hrs old, so it's not the freshest of data. lol)

Thanks, Dr. Masters, for talking about western drought. Drought may not be the most exciting weather pattern, but it is going to be crucial to our entire society in the years ahead. I've heard that the whole assumptions behind major western water projects, such as the Central Arizona Project have rested on poorly developed assumptions about long term patterns of climate and precipitation. I'd love to hear more on those issues.

seminolesfan...that quickscat didn't capture the entire disturbed area. The area which looks like a circulation is present is further west than what is on the current quickscat pass.

got it JP - right back at ya.

Yeah sorry guys, i just realized that qsat was OLD.

I'm gonna stop posting trash now. LOL :)

90E

I do see hints of a circulation in the SW caribbean but it appears to be in the mid-levels for now.Maybe that will change in time.

Yes Adrian, it's at the mid-levels. See the 850mb vorticity max under the convection.

A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF 12N78W OVER THE 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W TO 23N62W AND THEN
CONTINUES AS A TROUGH SW TO NEAR 20N70W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
STRONGEST WITHIN 4 TO 5 DEGREES N OF THE TROUGH AND A LOW MAY
DEVELOP NEAR 25N70W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

Check out the latest visible sat loop. Now showing some new convective burts rigt over the circulation.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N13W 3N24W 5N35W 8N48W 6N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS OF 5N37W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 6.5N42W 8N48W
7N51W 8.5N55W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SW.
A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE E COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE E HALF OF
THE GULF...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT 75W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THIS AREA.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE WESTERN GULF WITH DIFLUENT FLOW
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER E TEXAS AND JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE TEXAS COAST. AT THE SURFACE A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION AT THE LOWER
LEVELS AND A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR
19N84W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD RIDGING COVERS THIS AREA WITH THE AXIS LOCATED FROM NEAR
29N62W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 12N78W. THE RIDGE
IS CAPPED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO 28N70W TO 30N55W. THE JET THEN TURNS NORTHWARD
BEYOND 32N49W. CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS ALONG
THE JET. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THE COLOMBIA
COAST TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF 12N78W OVER THE 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W TO 23N62W AND THEN
CONTINUES AS A TROUGH SW TO NEAR 20N70W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
STRONGEST WITHIN 4 TO 5 DEGREES N OF THE TROUGH AND A LOW MAY
DEVELOP NEAR 25N70W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KYhomeboy...I saw that when looking at the loops.

Is Barry around the corner? We shall watch and see as it looks like the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season wants to start early.

A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF 12N78W OVER THE 24 HOURS.

That's right where that convection is firing up.

There are hints of a surface rotation center in the SW corner of this loop. However the system remains very disorganized. Give it a couple days over water with lower shear and we could have a trouble-maker.

the circulation in the sw caribbean is showing some signs of organisation. the shear at the moment is 20-25 knots over the system. there has been an increase in convection to the nw.
soon the area with shesr forecast to decrease will be called an invest

Levi32....thanks!!! Thats a big help

If whatever forms in w caribbean moves north, it will be sheared to pieces once it enters the GOM. Shear looks to be increasing in GOM in 72 hours. GFS had something here in GOM moving in FL for like 5 days (since last Friday) and then dropped this feature during the last couple day's worth of runs. We need some kind of rain to relieve the drought in SW FL, but I'm not counting on this being the savior. Probably finally see some seabreeze t-storm action in 5 days when this cranking high moves out a bit to the NE and we get some moist SE flow.

The area where the surface low is expected to form is currently under only 5 to 10 knots of shear.

Link

Afternoon everyone. Just got back from dog grooming and my own haircut as well. I see the CMC has stuck with the Carribean disturbance, but now takes it away from FL.

After looking at the imagery, I do believe we will have to keep an eye on this. No closed LLC yet, but it has a chance.

I just checked on a few obs in Panama. Bocas del Toro(extreme NW Panama near the border with Costa Rica )has N winds @5mph
Colon which is further E ( about half way along the Panamanian coast ) has S winds @ 12 mph.
These winds strongly suggest a surface low near 12N80W ( where there are visible signs of a circulation from sat images )