Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Good Evening Folks.....It seems to me that it might be a slow start to the season (quiet in early June), but, that should not keep people from stocking up and preparing for what may become a memorable season come July and August...

Uh...no, I don't think a slow start to June is likely. I am not going to preach like I know it all or that I want tropical cyclones, but shear will definitely start to lower within the next week or two I would guess. That's when we could see the development of a storm or two in June. Anymore storms besides 2 in June is very unlikely, although ANYTHING is possible, and I'll definitely read all the comments here, and use the data from this site to keep track of anything that may develop.

Carribean system model update

CMC =intense system big bend / panhandle on Friday

UKMET= weaker system across the FL west coast then it moves off the FL/GA boarder then deepens and brushes the SC/NC coast

GFS= still seems lost at this time

Hardcoreweather.com

Link

Good morning to all

the tropics look relatively quiet tis morning except for td 1E and the blob in the sw caribbean. the area continues to hold its own, albeit under slackened wind shesr. may be if the system were to sit out there for a few days then, there might be a chance of further devepment

good morning

The low in the SW Caribbean is at 1009 mb. Still has a chance IMO

Morning y'all ☺

kman, where are you getting the close up Quickscat of the Carib?

This is where I have been going...

Never mind kman. Never realized the maps here were click and zoom...lol

Hi SJ

This is the low res QS page. Just scroll down to the images. The Hi res images have been off line for a couple of days
Link

This is the hi res link

Link

Morning, all.

Still winds in the 15 mph range here. That high pressure and the steep gradient is keeping it cool in the Bahamas so far this week.

To all the Americans out there, enjoy your Memorial Day.

Any thoughts? Looks like circulation to me, but I may be misreading it.

It does of the possibility to develop if it can hang on here for the next few days. It'll be interesting to watch.
FORUM GIANT- NEW WEATHER FORUM!

Look as though the northern part is starting to break off from the southern part. I think this would allow for that low in the SW Caribbean to have more potential for development, will be interesting to see what happens, looks like it might be less shear also.

I think this low in the caribbean really has a chance now. It's been very persistent and now it looks like the ull is pulling out and leaving it behind.

It looks pretty puny right now. About all that I'd be willing to say is that the air around it doesn't look as dry as yesterday.

I guess every storm has humble beginnings but that is more of a blip, than a blob... :-)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/hurricane-AMMA/hgt_vort_1000_atl_animation.html

From

It does look like something could start there, but instead of the usual W or N to the Fl panhandle, is pulled NNE by the trough that's still there , gets sheared & is pulled across Cuba or just skirts it & brings (more) rain to S FL. Just my wild guess.

SP, I agree that southern end seems to be detaching more now, which should give it a better chance. From that Quickscat it looks like the circulation is decent. The shear right over it should be fairly low. SSTs are plenty warm. It will be interesting to see what the area looks like once we get some more visible images.

SJ

That QS pass you posted shows a circulation just about at 12n 78W
It will need to build more convection though if it is to survive

Not too much going on now but low level inflow streamers can be seen

It has survived for the past few days and did so again last night, lets see if it gets its act together today.

True kman, but as well defined as the circulation is, according to the quickscat and the first few visual images, it should be able to hang on even though I would expect convection to die down for most of the morning and early afternoon.

Well I have to run now but will bbl

It does look like the system is now moving slowly west.

This from the Tallahassee,Fl. extended....

"Was hoping that the global models would come into better agreement
with regards to a possible system coming out of the western
Carribean into the eastern Gomex during the end of the week and
first half of the weekend. Unfortunately the guidance remains split.
The GFS is showing a rather weak wave moving up with just an
increase in low level moisture while the European model (ecmwf) and UKMET develop the
system a bit more bringing a closed low into the southeast
Gulf on Saturday...then crossing the Florida Peninsula. The Canadian
which has been bullish with this system all along is showing the
closed low moving north through the eastern Gomex into our area.
With as much uncertainty as there is at this time...have ran the
forecast closer to the GFS solution as is suggested by HPC while
waiting for better model agreement. One way or the other it appears
as though there will finally be a chance for some locally beneficial
rain by the end of the week."

Good Morning all and Happy Memorial Day. I hope everyone stays safe.

hey yall. whats this big change people are talking about next week. hey storm junkie you had 2 pics of the ssts on his last blog. what where the years for them?

Weather station 42058 has failed. Not good news. Hope they get it repaired soon.

Link

hey-is it me or is the ocean cooling off? does anyone know what the heck is going on out there. maybe dr. masters will do a blog on it

hey kw.....maybe it is global cooling... lol

The ocean has been cooling due to those gusty winds.Now that they're slowing down,expect it to heat up again pretty fast.The Gulf Stream will be pumping warm water back up the coast again.It should be back where it was in a week or two.

It's the A/B High that is causing upwelling. It has been stronger than normal, but is forecast to come back down to 1024mb I believe.

Actually,it's not the Bermuda high.It's a continental high that came down with a backdoor cold front.

TD1-E update. Still at 30 kts. Storm in 24 hrs, peaking at 40kts.

Meh. Andrea had better structure than this Carribbean thing.

Big traffic jam in the basin right now! From The west coast of the US into Europe! Things don't look to get moving again until late this week, early next week! GFS is predicting some pretty substantial rains by week 2! The GFS has been doing poorly on cyclogenisis but, has been doing rather well with the dynamic patterns. See My Blog for details!

Shear from the ULL at 30 to 40kt is not allowing this thing to form


hardcoreweather.com
Link

Not making fun of anyone but myself for refreshing the page when I KNOW there is nothing going on, maybe we should rename this the association of westcasting blobwatchers??
I'm going to try to stay off of here for 12 hours and maybe something will actually happen, talk about a watched pot, LOL. Back to comically lurking.
groundman

Posted By: weatherboykris at 2:39 PM GMT on May 28, 2007.

Actually,it's not the Bermuda high.It's a continental high that came down with a backdoor cold front

Good ob kris.

Origin of this high is dry. Drier dewpoints means greater ability to cool off SST's.

thats guys for the info.

it looks like a rather small system if it does develop

Looks like the center of the Caribbean disturbance...to me...is around 16N, 77.5W...moving west.

GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean Link

And it's broken away from the low that's moving NE to the east of the Bahamas...it's on it's own moving west. Looks like a slight flair up near the center.

That's a ULL east of the Bahamas...predicted to move NE. Whether the Caribbean disturbance forms a TD or not...the moisture is predicted to get into the GOM...may help end the fires.

Plenty of rain and Thunderstorms moving onshore here..Link

I wonder if someone should tell these people they're swimming right next to a RIP CURRENT. (Lower Right of Image)

Dont see any worries in the caribbean at the moment with convection being very scattered in nature with no organzation.

hi i'm new here.

last time i checked (late last night). most computer models veered the carribean blob northeast away from the U.S. exept one.

12z CMC run still develops the low and moves it over the FL Panhandle. Weaker on this run, but still consistent. Shear is dropping, albeit slowly each day. Don't count this one out.

Morning all. Pouring here in SW La. from rains moving on-shore.

I've looked at some other postings but anyone notice that the Pacific TD is modeled to move NE and cross Central America? Hopefully, land chews the thing up. Anyways, the GFDL doesn't show this for roughly 126 hours out. Probably osmething just to keep an eye on but no real worries here.

thats the one i think lol

About time 91E is up