Grading NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) is a text-only product that rates the potential of disturbed areas of weather to turn into tropical depressions or tropical storms. The outlooks are issued four times daily, at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm EDT. I've found them to be an excellent guide to what to watch out for. But how accurate are these outlooks? To find out, Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, who are two of the hurricane specialists that write the Tropical Weather Outlook, verified the accuracy of all the outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. They used a three-tiered classification of threat based on the following language appearing in the TWO:
High: "A tropical depression could form tonight or the next day."
Medium: "Some slow development is possible."
Low: "Tropical storm formation is not expected."
These forecasts were then graded by looking at the "best track" database of Atlantic hurricanes and seeing if a tropical depression formed within 48 hours of each TWO issued. The results, shown below, reveal that for the Atlantic in the years 2005 and 2006:
-When the TWO said, "A tropical depression could form tonight of the next day," a depression formed within 48 hours 53% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Some slow development is possible," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours about 20% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Tropical storm formation is not expected," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours only 3% of the time.
Figure 1. Verification of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. Image credit: Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, National Hurricane Center.
Jeff Masters
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Yeah because 04 sucked.
Wow. Some would disagree with you:
"The 2004 season was notable as one of the deadliest and most costly Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, with at least 3,132 deaths and roughly $42 billion (2004 US dollars) in damage.
The most notable storms for the season were the four hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. state of Florida, three of them with at least 115 mph (185 km/h) sustained winds: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.
Jeanne wreaked havoc in Haiti, killing approximately 3,000 people, while Ivan raged through Grenada, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands; Frances and Jeanne both hit the Bahamas at full force, while Charley caused significant damage in Cuba.
Furthermore, all four of these hurricanes, as well as one tropical storm, hit the U.S. state of Florida, with Frances and Jeanne hitting nearly the exact same location within three weeks of each other; floodwaters in the southeastern United States were brought to near-record levels."
Full article here Link
Now that was just plain rude...
The line moveing from east to west in the Atlantic is that darkness?
Wow, thats cool..
Have a Safe Night!!!
2144 124 BARKER NIAGARA NY 4333 7855 (BUF)
I wonder if those people were prepared? 30 death,30 missing?
sardonicism is a subtle form of mockery that involves joking in a way that is inappropriate. it often involves joking from a perspective other than one's own in order to ridicule it: essentially a derisive straw-man dialogue.
the not-too-keen will not understand sardonic behavior and will take things said literally.
Them I'm not-too-keen lol
What time do we have juice and cookies?
Yeah, but he was puny compared to other hurricanes.
Hmmm... I no longer stand to defend this guy.
Please, though I'm sure it is hard, attempt to keep your ignorant statements to yourself.
I know what ya mean about falling apart too young.
I'm 10 years your junior and I already have osteoarthritis in one of my knees.
Just so ya know there are some smart cookies that post in here so if ya just take the time to see who's who and do a little more reading than typing you'll prob. learn a ton this year.
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