Grading NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) is a text-only product that rates the potential of disturbed areas of weather to turn into tropical depressions or tropical storms. The outlooks are issued four times daily, at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm EDT. I've found them to be an excellent guide to what to watch out for. But how accurate are these outlooks? To find out, Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, who are two of the hurricane specialists that write the Tropical Weather Outlook, verified the accuracy of all the outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. They used a three-tiered classification of threat based on the following language appearing in the TWO:
High: "A tropical depression could form tonight or the next day."
Medium: "Some slow development is possible."
Low: "Tropical storm formation is not expected."
These forecasts were then graded by looking at the "best track" database of Atlantic hurricanes and seeing if a tropical depression formed within 48 hours of each TWO issued. The results, shown below, reveal that for the Atlantic in the years 2005 and 2006:
-When the TWO said, "A tropical depression could form tonight of the next day," a depression formed within 48 hours 53% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Some slow development is possible," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours about 20% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Tropical storm formation is not expected," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours only 3% of the time.
Figure 1. Verification of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. Image credit: Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, National Hurricane Center.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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SWFL we can't be talking about long term conditions when the system hasn't even developed yet. As of now we are talking about the short term which at this point is the main focus. That upper level low if a few hundred miles north of the "Blob". The shear charts showing moderate trend of marginal to favorable upper level winds. And the SST remain warm enough to support tropcal cyclone development.
Big rain coming from the East. Soon be in South Sound. Looks like the thunder is coming from those thunderclouds SW of us and also from the SE
Thats what Tom Terry said
I would not be suprised to see the convection dissapate a bit before "blowing up" again.
BBL
Thunderstorm season is here for us !
Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on June 9, 2007
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A large tropical wave...located just offshore of west Africa...is
moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. Associated thunderstorm activity
is minimal... and environmental conditions are not favorable for
further development.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
do you think all that excess convection stretching south of panama will be pulled up into the carib. or is that even associated with the initial area of interest
It could be it has to do with whether or not there is a low in the area trying to wrap the convection around it.
Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.84 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
buoy north of the system East wind.
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No Active Storms
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