Grading NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) is a text-only product that rates the potential of disturbed areas of weather to turn into tropical depressions or tropical storms. The outlooks are issued four times daily, at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm EDT. I've found them to be an excellent guide to what to watch out for. But how accurate are these outlooks? To find out, Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, who are two of the hurricane specialists that write the Tropical Weather Outlook, verified the accuracy of all the outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. They used a three-tiered classification of threat based on the following language appearing in the TWO:
High: "A tropical depression could form tonight or the next day."
Medium: "Some slow development is possible."
Low: "Tropical storm formation is not expected."
These forecasts were then graded by looking at the "best track" database of Atlantic hurricanes and seeing if a tropical depression formed within 48 hours of each TWO issued. The results, shown below, reveal that for the Atlantic in the years 2005 and 2006:
-When the TWO said, "A tropical depression could form tonight of the next day," a depression formed within 48 hours 53% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Some slow development is possible," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours about 20% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Tropical storm formation is not expected," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours only 3% of the time.
Figure 1. Verification of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. Image credit: Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, National Hurricane Center.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I hope it clears some by the morning, just in a sense of selfish wishful thinking - I am flying to St. Lucia tomorrow to start my honeymoon and hope we can have the weather on our side long enough for my flight to leave on time!
I hope it clears some by the morning, just in a sense of selfish wishful thinking - I am flying to St. Lucia tomorrow to start my honeymoon and hope we can have the weather on our side long enough for my flight to leave on time!
...congratulations! And, honeymooners particularly, stay inside when it rains, don't they? Have fun, hope the weather cooperates!
I think you are going to be good to go, will probably quiet down in your area by late evening. Enjoy your honeymoon!
I don't mind the tempestuous weather once we get there, I just want to get there.
And when I get back I will have to take a day to catch up on WU blogs, of course.
Enjoy St. Lucia. Spent my honeymoon there as well. Been there a few times after that. The weather after June 1st is usually pretty rainy. Last time we went, it rained for 3 days straight. I don't recommend going in the water right after it rains either. We went snorkeling right after it rained and ended up getting bit by some type of water bug (I forget what they called them, but felt like a fireant bite). Just a heads up. Beautiful island nonetheless. Highly recommend it to anyone who has not been.
looks like something is trying to get its act together in the gulf west of fla. can it ?
All reports seem to answer that question with a big "NO" but according to Dr. Master's post for today, that leaves us with a 2.7% chance of "yes" and for most of us weather junkies, that % is high enough to keep us looking.
:-)
looks like the water is receding in that photo - either that or the darker line on the pole by the stop sign isn't from water.
just figured that since you were able to find a photo, you had probably found a website that was giving you some information like ...getting better, getting worse ..
i guess it is good that it looks like the structures are holding and although the cars could probably do without a few feet of water in them, at least they aren't flipped or displaced. if we are left to "read" into a photo, it looks like a slow rise of water but not much else.
anyhow, thanks for sharing the photo!
Got just over 1/2" this afternoon at my house in Lauderhill (Broward) but was driving around in Planation this afternoon and they have standing water everywhere, they got a lot more than we did. And it looks to be even worse tonight..... just hope some of it gets over the lake.
have a great afternoon.
on the selfish side, looks like most of this is going to cut south of my location and I think the 60% chance of rain posted for my area today is over stated.
i would never want someone to confuse me as someone that knows what they are talking about.
:-)
Oman trying to strengthen?
LOL!! Oman is the country, Gonu is the storm.
haha sorry, silly typo
If it did develop in the bahamas; which way would it go? would it head east, or do a u-turn and go back west?
GFS is showing east then back west, soaking the SE and W.
Boredom is a dangerous thing...BTW I think most of us on here live for hurricanes, so lets not all pretend to be so offended.
I'm glad someone admitted it. It's not all hurricanes, in the midwest a good wall storm will do or near blizzard conditions as long as I can see the worst of it. I personally want no death and no destruction except of replaceable things such as trees. The liklihood of that happening is slim to none along most of the coast. When I lived in the midwest most of the time I said WHY do those people INSIST on living that close to the coast!!! Now I know why. The breeze coming off the Gulf yesterday and the brilliant blue water was enough to convince anyone.
Also I agree a hurricane is a horrible thing, but a drought with climate change such as supposedly happened in parts of the Arid US and Israel in semi recent history (10,000 or so years?? can't remember) is a worse thing. Most people would rather die quickly than slowly starve while watching everything around them whither and die.
stormy, I am just a county north of you didnt realize anyone on here was so close
I'm in Saucier right now, actually it's N of Biloxi but a Saucier address. Used to live over by Lizana. And groundman is not a man. LOL
we will have alot to discuss if a storm starts to head our way
I read an article the other day that said a Cat 2 storm could be as destructive here now as a Cat 3, or 4. With the following reasons:
1. Waters are shallow, islands split-making surge as catastrophic.
2. More open area because of Katrina, waters would move further inland and hit other things, too.
3. All the FEMA trailers still being used in the area.
4. Number of workers, migrants-people there that have no experience with a storm.
...good to see you here.
As I recall the term horse latitudes refered to the region where they got becalmed and dumped the horses overboard to try to make the ships easier to move.
From Wikipedia:
"Due to its proximity to Bermuda (and being in the Bermuda Triangle), the sea is credited with some of the infamous disappearances there. That stigma is further enforced by the sometimes total lack of wind over the sea, and the possibility for modern engines to become entangled in the sargassum, stranding most vessels. Thus, it is sometimes called the "graveyard of ships.""
Hmmmmmmm.......that is interesting.
Also from Wiki
if i had to guess i would say that groundman is an electrician
Nope, diodes and circuits leave me cold and confused. Right now I am doing my husbands books for his company (Disaster Relief). I chose the name groundman because that's what I sort of did for a while if I actually like worked other than running errands and doing the paperwork end of things. A groundman is the guy on the ground during hurricane pickup that rakes or uses a skid steer to get the debris together so the picker truck or loader can pick it up and put it in the truck and haul it off. I move the truck when forced to also. Have my CDL but bah humbug, I hate to back up. Most days I take lunch to the crew and run errands about that time or some days I work all day with them or scout out the next address'es to make sure it's acessible by our equipment. I have a pink hard hat and a bichon friese/poodle and a white caddy, not your typical groundman. LOL ...White caddy sometimes carrys tools and chainsaws though!!
Oh yes, I talk to the homeowners if they are there and just chat, sometimes the guys don't ask enough questions.
And her sullen and aborted
Currents breed tiny monsters
True sailing is dead
Awkward instant
And the first animal is jettisoned
Legs furiously pumping
Their stiff green gallop
And heads bob up
Poise
Delicate
Pause
Consent
In mute nostril agony
Carefully refined
And sealed over
{by Jim Morrison}
Pat....I'm only a few blocks from there. That was always one of my favorite late-night spots. It's re-built and has been open for a month or so now. The food is great, as always. Now, if you guys over near New Orleans could convince them to re-open Godiva in the RiverWalk....we'd be in business!
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