Fourth warmest May on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. The best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until July 1, when a strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast.

The Middle East will see their second tropical cyclone of the month on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone 3B crossed India, killing at least 140, and re-formed in the Arabian Sea, and is poised to hit Iran or Pakistan tomorrow. The View From the Surface blog is following this storm. We may looking at hundreds of years since the last time the Middle East was hit by two tropical cyclones in the same month. Tropical Cyclone Gonu pounded Oman and Iran earlier this month.

Fourth Warmest May on record
May 2007 was the fourth warmest May for the globe on record, and the period January - May of 2007 was tied with 1998 for the warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for May was +0.53�C (+0.95�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, May global temperatures were the warmest ever measured, the second straight month that has happened. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (ninth warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event. The global temperature record goes back 128 years.

May temperatures were particularly warm across Russia. Moscow recorded its highest May temperature since record keeping began 128 years ago--32.9�C (91.2�F). The heat forced Russia's energy administrator to restrict the use of non-residential energy for the first time in summer. In India, a heat wave during mid-May produced temperatures as high as 45-50�C (113-122�F) resulting in at least 128 fatalities. Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change blog has more on the India heat wave. Although record heat was more prevalent across the globe, Argentina experienced its coldest May in twenty years, and at least 23 fatalities were reported as a result of cold weather during the last week of May.

11th warmest May on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., May 2007 ranked as the 11th warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 20th warmest such period on record. Spring (March - May) was 5th warmest on record in the continental U.S. The past six months (Dec-May) were the driest on record for the Southeast U.S. Portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are experiencing exceptional drought. However, the drought has eased some since late May over the Florida Peninsula.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for May 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for May was the third lowest on record, a modest recovery from the lowest ever sea ice coverage observed in April. Arctic sea ice coverage in May has declined by about 8% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for May, for the years 1979-2007. May 2007 had the third lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 8% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters

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482. HCW
12:56 PM GMT on July 03, 2007
Looks like a thunderstorm or two around a weak LLC. In most cases, such systems never develop. I guess it'll be fun for you guys to watch while we wait for the real season, though


Link
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
481. BahaHurican
1:36 PM GMT on June 26, 2007
That ULL looks like it will dip along the Straits at this rate.

Yesterday we (in Nassau) had great weather. Today it looks like the cloudiness might be more intermittent due to that ULL. Hopefully it won't be TOO rainy . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
480. WPBHurricane05
11:30 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
The spin off the Bahammas is an ULL. The tropical wave will pass to the south of Florida and the ULL will pass over Florida.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
479. stoormfury
10:56 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
THIS IS THE LATEST QUICKSCAT OT THE AREA SE OF FLORIDA


Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
478. aquak9
10:46 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
G'morning to the Good Dr.'s Blog.

C2, ya oughtta go step outside for a sec and look to the east. We really have a lovely cloud/skyline, looking just ENE.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26253
477. C2News
10:42 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
stoorm, I can definitely see that on your link and the pic provided by storyofthecane. There is definitely a spin in the Bahamas area. This does bear watching. It might be the tropical system expected to go over Florida in the coming days.
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
476. stoormfury
10:32 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Good morning to all,
There seems to be a spin to the se of Florida and the Bahamas. The circ is probably an ULL. It is quite possible that the ull could come down to the surface. wind shear is very low 5=10 knots. This area bears watching, if convection were to persist.
Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
475. StoryOfTheCane
7:12 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
474. stormybil
5:53 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
its cool watching that spin off the east coast of fla its been there all day . and looks like a new blob will be enetering the caribiean soon stay tuned .
473. C2News
5:20 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
hi
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
472. sullivanweather
4:22 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
NY/PA flooding 2006


One year ago heavy rainfall over saturated ground produced severe flooding.
I was at the Deleware River @ Barryville as it made it's historical high crest @ 28.97ft - 2 1/2 ft higher than it's previous record high crest

This flooding came on the heels of another significant flood which was more of a flash flooding event at first, but turned into main stem river flooding. One week previous to this flood over 1 foot of heavy wet snow fell on an already ripe 18" snowpack. Then two significant rainstorms proceeded to pound the area, the first bringing 2-3 inches. The next, just 24 hours later bringing 3-4 inches.

Flood of April 2005

A major catastrophe was almost the result of this flood as a large sink hole developed in the earthen dam which holds back a 9 mile long 50 ft deep reservior, which is connected downstream by 2 more reserviors. The Mongaup River runs from the spillway of the Rio reservior into the Deleware River. About 5 miles further downstream is Port Jervis, NY and Matamoras, PA. With a combined population of around 14,000.
These towns, along with a few more downstream would have been heavily damaged.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
471. Jedkins
4:10 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
across east Florida ya, only a couple isolated thunderstorm on this side of the state today.
470. Skyepony (Mod)
4:01 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
ladyweatherbug~ should just be thundershowers. Best chance Thursday & friday. Rain chances on the rise starting tommarrow.

Today we actually got way more rain than was expected across FL. This was put out tonight by the MLB NWS

.UPDATE...MUST HAVE BEEN A PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY TO SPARK SUCH
STRONG CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTN NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO...WELL
AHEAD OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. NO DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL
REPORTED BUT 2 MORE HOMES STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND ISSUED STORM
REPORTS FOR THEM.

$$

KELLY

storm reports
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38628
469. BahaHurican
3:57 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Evening all,

I was just looking at the SLOSH models for Tampa. A category 1 storm surge would put McGill AFB out of commission; a cat 3 would flood the downtown and the airport as well as most of that peninsula that the AFB is on . . .

That doesn't look like a good scenario.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
468. tornadodude
3:09 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
On this day in weather history...
1933 -- A hailstorm swept a path of destruction 12 miles wide and 40 miles long across eastern Saskatchewan.

1938 -- 4.22" of rain drenched Warsaw, Indiana.

1994 -- Death Valley had a morning low of 102.

1995 -- At 1:35pm lightning struck the horse team of an Amish farmer near Shipshewana, Indiana. The spooked horses ran into a tree, killing the farmer. Also, a 17-year-old boy in Fort Wayne was killed when lightning struck a nearby object and jumped to him.

1998 -- Flooding at New Carlisle (Saint Joseph County Indiana), 60mph thunderstorm winds at Decatur, dime sized hail at Angola and Poe (Allen County Indiana). One inch diameter hail at Coldwater, nickel sized hail at Quincy (Branch County) and Camden (Hillsdale County).

2002 -- Phenomenal flash flooding struck Fort Wayne as thunderstorms developed and re-developed directly over the city for several hours this evening. Times Corner reported 8" of rain in three hours. Spy Run Creek rose 9 feet in 8 hours to an all-time record level of 12.3 feet. Three inches of rain fell in 90 minutes.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
467. ladyweatherbug
2:48 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Would love to get some reallllyyy good rain out of it. All this afternoon convection has been missing my area and we are bone dry....yep...gotta get a new well dug. $$ OUCH $$
466. Melagoo
2:46 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Wow I can't figure out how more aren't hurt by hail especially that size ... Thanks Michael :c)
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1604
465. texascanecaster1
2:46 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
or it could be verey severe thunderstorms until the two meet which then would cause just rain. Good night all. Have a great night!
464. texascanecaster1
2:45 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Could be nothing lady
463. ladyweatherbug
2:45 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Just a quick question before bedtime....what kind of weather reaction is going to occur (if any) when the eastward bound system meets up with the westward bound system? From sat images, it looks like the two might converge somewhere over Florida or even in the Gulf. Any thoughts????
462. texascanecaster1
2:44 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
same think direct link:Link
461. texascanecaster1
2:44 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Before i leave for bed: damage film taken immeadelty fowllowing the greensburg kansas tornado earlier this year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLXfKb06lvY&mode=related&search=
460. Jedkins
2:40 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
ya the plains are hail country as well as tornado country.


Hail isn't usually a big deal in Florida, Ive personally seen with my own eyes more tornados then hail here believe it or not LOL.

Ive only seen hail twice, but Ive seen 3 tornados in this area.
459. MichaelSTL
2:24 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
The largest hail that I have ever personally experienced was about an inch in diameter; I avoided getting the worst of this storm though I remember having piles of hail in low lying areas around the yard the day after it hit. An interesting thing that occurred with hail this year was that the NWS actually recorded hail that fell on April 13 as being a trace of snow, setting a daily record, yet there was no way it could have been snow (and none was recorded in the daily climate summary, not under weather conditions)... LOL!
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
458. GoofOff
2:16 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
I'm a Nebraska native and saw some golf ball sized hail and that was more than I cared for. I live on the Treasure Coast of Florida now, so all I have put up with are hurricanes. ;-)
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
456. MichaelSTL
2:14 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Also, I found the official NWS storm summary here; they note this as well:

Hailstones were reported to be the size of volleyballs...which was not far from the truth given the enormous impact craters left in the ground...some as large as 12 inches and over 3 inches deep on grass lawns.
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
453. Patrap
2:11 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Hastings, Nebraska Hailstone...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
452. GoofOff
2:11 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Just noticed it was Mountain Standard time, not Central, so the hail report was only about 20 minutes ago. I would think hail that size would have to form pretty high up and would cause a lot of damage when it got to ground level.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
450. MichaelSTL
2:06 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
This shows how SSTs have responded over the last week (note that the CPC's data is not as current and thus doesn't really show the cooling):

Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
449. Jedkins
2:04 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
seriously, wtf is going on, thats rediculous.


Ya know, once we get out of this drought in Florida here, we will probably be stuck in floods, weather is just weird these days, never any normal weather, always one extreme of the other.

I wouldn't want to be in any structure other then a bunker if volley ball sized hail was falling, that would shread powerlines and pummel cars. That is just insane.
447. MichaelSTL
2:02 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Believe it or not, an even larger hail stone was found later:

CENTRAL PLAINS STORM PRODUCED LARGEST HAILSTONE IN U.S. HISTORY

A raging thunderstorm that pounded south-central Nebraska last month, ended up leaving a little something extra for residents and the meteorological record books. The largest hailstone ever recovered in the United States fell in Aurora on June 22, with a record 7-inch diameter and a circumference of 18.75 inches.

The National Climate Extremes Committee, which is responsible for validating national records, formally accepted the measurements last week. The committee included a small team of experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C., and NOAAs National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS forecast office in Hastings, Neb., provided the measurements.

Were it not for the quick thinking of local residents, who found the hailstone and kept it from melting, we would have not known it existed, said Jay Lawrimore, who chairs the committee.

The old record for the largest hailstone had a diameter of 5.7 inches, a circumference of 17.5 inches, and was found in Coffeyville, Kan., on September 3, 1970.

Lawrimore added that the Aurora hailstone didnt break the record for the heaviest hailstone. It was hard for us to get an accurate weight for this stone because a chunk of it hit the gutter of a house and 40 percent of it was lost, he said. Also we think some of the stones mass might have melted before it was preserved in freezing conditions.

Along with Lawrimore, permanent members of the committee include: Andy Horvitz, program manager of the NWS Cooperative Weather Observer Network and Kelly Redmond, deputy director of NOAAs Western Region Climate Center.

Meteorologists from Hastings and the NWS Central Region Headquarters in Kansas City, Mo., participated in the review. Nancy Knight of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., made the measurements of the Coffeyville hailstone and was a special consultant for this review.

NOAA Satellites and Information Service operates three data centers, including the NCDC, which house global data bases in climatology, oceanography, solid earth geophysics, marine geology and geophysics, solar-terrestrial physics and paleoclimatology.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events, and providing environmental stewardship of the nations coastal and marine resources.
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
446. GoofOff
2:00 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
This was from about an hour ago.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
749 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2007

SDC019-260215-
/O.CON.KUNR.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-070626T0215Z/
BUTTE SD-
749 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL BUTTE COUNTY...

AT 748 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 17 MILES WEST OF NEWELL...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BELLE FOURCHE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEWELL BY 810 PM MDT...

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELLE FOURCHE
AT 725 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4497 10380 4474 10381 4470 10339 4495 10338

$$

CZEPYHA
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
445. MichaelSTL
1:59 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Here are all of the reports so far of hail 4 inches or larger today (remember that the SPC puts the size in 1/100th of an inch so 400 is 4 inches):

0005 400 1 NE ROCKYPOINT CROOK WY 4491 10509 HAIL LASTED 5 TO 10 MINUTES. (UNR)
0100 425 20 NW ALADDIN CROOK WY 4484 10447 (UNR)
0115 400 COLONY CROOK WY 4487 10416 (UNR)


Also, I looked at the last 7 days worth of storm reports to see how big the largest hail was:

June 18: 1.00 inches
June 19: 4.25 inches
June 20: 4.25 inches
June 21: 4.25 inches
June 22: 2.00 inches
June 23: 1.75 inches
June 24: 4.25 inches

I don't think it is normal to have hail that big this often...
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
444. Jedkins
1:59 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 1:44 AM GMT on June 26, 2007.

This is the most incredible hail report that I have ever seen (link):

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1035 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM AURORA NE VOLLEYBALL SIZE HAIL
06/22/03 HAMILTON REPORTED BY STORM
SPOTTER. HOLES IN
NEIGHBORS ROOF BIG
ENOUGH TO CRAWL THROUGH




WTF that is diaturbing, I don't know about you, but if a halstone that big came through my roof I just might think its the beginning of worlds end!

Seriously, if I would be disturbed for a few days after that, wow, just wow...
441. Hurricaneblast
1:56 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
uhhh, found one bigger than a volleyball

"At least one hailstone was the size of a cantaloupe, measuring 6 1/2 inches
in diameter, said Ryan McCammon, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Hastings. That's just one-eighth of an inch smaller
than the national record holder, which was found in 1970 at Coffeyville, Kan. "
Member Since: February 14, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 3626
440. texascanecaster1
1:53 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Really hayes? was out of town last week must have missed didn't become a storm though did it?
439. ConeofUncertainty
1:53 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Nothing happening in the tropics yet...thank goodness.
438. texascanecaster1
1:51 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Evening convection:

435. MichaelSTL
1:48 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Here is a list of descriptions used by the NWS for hail (they often use penny size as well to describe 3/4 inch hail):

HAIL DIAMETER SIZE DESCRIPTION
1/4" Pea Size
1/2" Marble Size
3/4" Dime Size
7/8" Nickel Size
1" Quarter Size
1 1/4" Half Dollar Size
1 1/2" Ping Pong Ball Size
1 3/4" Golf Ball Size
2" Egg Size
2 1/2" Tennis Ball Size
2 3/4" Baseball Size
3" Teacup Size
4" Grapefruit Size
4 1/2" Softball Size
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
434. texascanecaster1
1:46 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
Sorry micheal is checked that is a real warning. Amazing... that is going to kill people if it actually is that big when it falls. Also velocity radar tells me that there is a meoscyclone in this thing maybe a tornado lets see if they issue a warning.
432. MichaelSTL
1:44 AM GMT on June 26, 2007
This is the most incredible hail report that I have ever seen (link):

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1035 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM AURORA NE VOLLEYBALL SIZE HAIL
06/22/03 HAMILTON REPORTED BY STORM
SPOTTER. HOLES IN
NEIGHBORS ROOF BIG
ENOUGH TO CRAWL THROUGH
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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