Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Well, I see we are in "will it live/will it not live" mode today....

Hey, at least it is something to watch.

hey all,

Anyone have a good readup on diurnal min and max phases as well as nocturnal related to tropical cyclones? Cant seem to google the right literature.

Happy 4th to everyone. I don't have much hope for 96L doing anything. Atleast there is something to look at.
I agree with JP on the politics point. I am sick of it. No middle, just extremes. I hate both sides.

It is a political position, what do you expect? I mean the NHC Director is all over the TV when something threatens and even when nothing is out, he is addressing conferences etc.....it is like Condi Rice deciding one day to blast the State department for all the weakenesses....he should of known better before he went down the road he did.....did he really think nothing would happen? He will be gone before Sept.

Adrian,
I don't know Mr.Proenza personally nor the NHC Forecasters but this is not the time to squabble at each other wait til November for that, you need to work as a team to prepare and save lives, the NHC forecasters who are bickering should be ashamed of themselves, it is their job to be confidential about their feelings and wait. Their focus should be on 96L and the tropics not ousting their Director, there is a time and place for everything and its not now. If I was working there and a reporter asked me about the situation no matter how bad I would say " This is not the time and place for this discussion my duties are to serve the American public in tracking and preparing for this Hurricane season."

Just my take

JP,
Hypothetical situation what happens if we get a major Hurricane in the next two weeks threatening the U.S.? Will the gov't allow Mr.Proenza on tv or mute him?

Weather-related?

A 250lb World War II bomb has washed up on the shore of Crescent Beach, Florida. This is in the Northeast coast area, found this morning by a lady walking her dog. Navy explosives/ordinance team on site.

Well, we HAVE been having some heavy surf...kinda freaky.

he did not go through the proper channels, he should of known better, it is not like he is a rookie....it is one thing to point out something, it is another to basically trash your boss(NOAA)....in the real world, you would be fired the next day. I have no sympathy for the man....he made his bed, now he has to sleep in it...his own staff wants him gone.

aquak9, is there a link to a story for that bomb? Crescent beach in Sarasota, fl?

jp, he will be out before the peak of the season.....people arent use to his face, so it will not be a loss, they will probably get one of the chicks on TWC as interm Director until after the season....lol

Hello

This is my first post and I look forward to haveing great discussions with you all.

I just wanted to say that I agree with JP's comments on Bill I think its about time someone speaks up and tells it like it is.

Kristopher,

any updates on 96L

it looks like 96L has gone thru a cemetery of dry air. the dry air was mainly at the mid levels comparable to the relatively moist upper levels. now with the forecast for wind shear to increase near the island chain. it is almost certain that 96L has met it's demise

Yep.. Update is it is croaking and basically about to die.

WV imagery shows that the dry air has proven to be too much for this little system.

They may as well remove the invest. It's done.

Does anyone see areas of interest that need to be watched for development in the near future or possibly several days out?

oh well, it was fun while it lasted:)

It would be tough for anyone to replace Max, but especially for a manager from outside the center who was not an experienced hurricane forecaster. These guys were used to "one of their own" managing the center and are reacting poorly to Washington going outside to name a replacement. Been there, done that. Bill needed to carefully earn his membership on their team while encouraging the input of the group of very experienced "individual contributors." In other words, "hang back while they get to know him." It didn't happen and now may be beyond repair. This problem would occur as long as they didn't name an existing forecaster as the new chief, which they didn't do for some reason that we may never know. Too bad...now we all have a problem.

yes some models are suggesting that o low may move out of Africa on the weekend and track weatward across the atlantic towards the islands next week. the models are even suggesting that it could be Chantal. we just have to wait and see

well I am not writing it off yet, as long as it has a tight circulation new convection can pop up at any time.

you dont no that 28

Yeah Taz, I do. Can't make lemonade out of lemons that aren't there. Don't worry. We'll have Chantal sometime this month.

ok, a couple hrs ago the COC was strong, now it is falling apart......lol..............OK!

28 give 96L one more day be foe you call it done it could make a come back or it could not but give it one more day

all the wish-casting going on last night looks pretty bad right now, although I'm sure it happens all the time....

I have seen lows in much worse shape then this come back from the dead, not saying it will we will just have to see

Death to all tropical blobs!

jp is right. The winds field is looking good though. Its currently going through the dinural min phase so convection associated with the system will be relatively light. I give this thing one more dinural max phase before i give up on it.

notice the outflow/windfield. that to show how much moisture the system can hold.

12Z CMC basically drops this as well.

I didi not like Mayfield! Long live Bob Sheets

nash28 it does drop it lol. still shows it. wait for the cyclone phase diagram.

i'll use this pciture to show you the moisture at the surface in relation to the wind field.

Mayfield was and IS STILL a good man. How anyone can have a problem with him is beyond me.

Not going to get in a pissing political match about it either. Politics and this blog need to remain seperate.

True, but the more telling image is in the WV image.

well well what a system . 96L is trying hard to make a come back, good out flow pattern trying to form again

TSR on the update today lowers there numbers a bit but still indicates an above average season looks likely.

Complete Update

You can still watch Max Mayfield on Local 10 in Miami.

new blog!

Blame the war in Iraq for the problems at the hurricane center. I work as an Wx observer at Miami International. There has been word coming down for the last year or so that the government wants to make the tower people take observations and phase out the observer program. The talk is that this phase out would first affect c and b stations first. There is no word yet on A stations like Miami. Ft Lauderdale is a level b airport for the wx station there. Couple this talk with the aging quick scat, the fact that they are scaling down flights into hurricanes, and the fact that Noaa won't allow our satellites to study global warming anymore, should tell you all you need to know about where we stand. Our government is out of money and we are low hanging fruit. Our stations contract is awarded again in August with a take over date of Oct 1. Whether or no we will still have a job or whether or not the government will actually phase us out remains to be seen, but I can tell you that everyone in the observing field is very worried.