Revolt at NHC; tropical update
The extraordinary political turmoil at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continued yesterday, with the release of a statement signed by nearly half of the staff calling for the immediate dismissal of director Bill Proenza. Front page stories in both the Miami Herald and Florida Sun-Sentinel detail the letter, which reads: "An unfortunate public debate is now occurring over the ability of the National Hurricane Center to meet its mission. The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new director. The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake. The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in." The letter is signed by 23 of the center's 49 employees, including almost the entire senior staff. Many NHC employees were on vacation, and did not have the opportunity to sign the letter.
The articles in the two newspapers also quote my blog from yesterday, where I present the case against Bill Proenza--his misrepresentation of the science of how much the QuikSCAT satellite influences hurricane track forecasts. I'll have more to say on the matter this afternoon, when I've had a chance to process some of the feedback on this.
Tropical update
A low pressure system (96L) with a well-defined spin is about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, moving westward towards the islands at 10-15 mph. This low continues to show sporadic heavy thunderstorm activity, but has been unable to overcome the large amount of dry air it is embedded in. It would appear that 96L's window of opportunity for developing into a tropical depression has closed, as wind shear has risen to 20 knots and is expected to remain at least 20 knots for the next two or three days. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Model tracks for 96L, the low pressure system approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
New disturbance off the east coast of Florida
An area of disturbed weather has developed off the east coast of Florida along an old frontal boundary. Long range radar out of Melbourne, FL shows a large disorganized area of showers off the coast. The area is under 20-25 knots of wind shear, and the shear is forecast to remain above 20 knots for at least the next two days in the region, which should prevent any development. The GFS computer model shows this disturbance moving off to the northeast over the weekend, but it could bring heavy rains to Florida and the Northwest Bahamas Friday and Saturday before it does so. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Proenza evidently didn't play the game the way people are used to it being played. He embarrassed both his bosses and his staff, which of course, means he should be hung, you know? [/sarcasm]
Without being involved, one can't know all of the details. But this sounds more like he is being attacked not for possible bad science, but for not shutting his mouth.
Given that it's MY taxpayer dollars paying for the whole lot, I'd rather things be open and public.
But that is definitely not the government way.
The bad thing that comes out of this is that whenever he is replaced, whoever replaces him will be someone whose lips are buttoned tight. I don't really think that serves the public. For my money, I want openness and information. I don't need people to decide what I can hear or not hear.
As for those whining about the politics, too bad. This topic is relevant and to be honest, there isn't jack happening in the tropics anyhow. Which is a good thing.
Adrian, in that video they sound whiney and self absorbed.
It does not really matter how they sound like but as avila said he has not made one hurricane forcast since the early sixtys.Almost the entire staff wants him out and iam sure there's a good reason for that.Adrian
96L has been batteling dry air. Right?
and everyone is saying or was saying wait untill it get to the Carb.
Well when it gets to te Carb. It will still be in dry air. What was it or is it that will change once it gets to the Carb. It was or will still be in dry air. How was the Carb. Goin to change what it would or is going to do?
I haven't caught up on all the posts yet, but this excerpt from the Miami Herald story caught my eye:
"The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake," the 23 staff members said in their letter. "The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return its focus to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in."
This part of the staff's response sounds like the NOAA team came in and threatened them. "If you don't toe the line, your funding will be cut even further" or something to that effect.
Let me put it another way. If this so-called "mutiny" had taken place BEFORE government overseers had come into the situation, I would have placed more credibility in it. As it is, I'm not convinced this situation would ever have arisen.
It's a pity this is taking place at a time when attention should be focused on how best to meet the hurricane season that currently threatens.
he doesnt need approval to talk to the press, he is the director of the NHC, its his job to talk to them
go back to the stories from the Miami Herald, one of the first ones on the subject states that the paper received the letter of reprimend from one of the forecasters at the NHC
Things that make u go Hmmmm. . . . this makes me wonder just WHO leaked the story. Maybe it's someone who was quite eager to speak to the press more recently . . .
Not sure if this video has been posted yet on the NHC troubles but its a must see.Trust me he's gone from the NHC before the end of the month if not sooner.
Adrian,
Can you say who is the spokesperson here? And what about the man standing in the background?
Let me give you an example of what I mean...
Here's some choice quotes by James Franklin:
"We've got forecasters still back at their desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into August September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do."
"I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here. "
OK...I understand that some forecasters are frustrated with the managerial style of the boss. Well fine, but that goes with the job. Everyone has been saddled with the problem at one point or another. A true professional is able to soldier on and if need be, seek remediation.
Now say there is a hurricane that behaves like Charley and say the intensity and track forecast has significant errors. Is the bad forecast going to be blamed on "a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk"?
I am really disappointed in what I have read coming from those forecasters and I think if they take a step back and look at what they are doing, effectively eroding public confidence in NHC forecasts...they would realize they are making a huge mistake.
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