Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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1186. sporteguy03
2:37 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Dr.Masters when you said 70% of a Tropical Storm in July was that thru July 15th or the whole month?
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1185. Tazmanian
7:32 AM PDT on July 08, 2007
from TWC



Tropical Storm 04W continues to organize about 350 miles south-southeast of Guam. The storm is forecast to continue to move to the northwest and strengthen to typhoon strength by Monday afternoon (Eastern time) and continue to strengthen through the week in the Philippine Sea (in the far western Pacific).

In the Western Hemisphere, and in the Eastern Pacific, an area of showers and thunderstorms continues to organize about 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. This could become a tropical depression later today as it continues to move away from Mexico.

In the Central Pacific, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located about 1500 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii. This cluster is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days.

All remains quiet in the Atlantic

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1184. Patrap
9:31 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Seen enough waffleing during the past week,thought Id celebrate the new art form
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1183. FLfishyweather
2:29 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I gotta go... get a haircut =( [dramatic music playing in the backround]

departing is such sweet sorrow
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1182. StormJunkie
2:29 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Morning y'all ☺

lol ffw...
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1181. FLfishyweather
2:27 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I just had a waffle... small world
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1180. Patrap
9:27 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
pecan with nanas..ummmmmm
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1179. Patrap
9:27 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Morning..making waffles
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1178. nash28
2:21 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Morning Pat.
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1177. FLfishyweather
2:15 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I almost think that it is impossible that a hurricane has not completely destroyed the GOM or FL.
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1176. Patrap
9:16 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
WAVCIS GOM 60 hour Sst's forecast model, area specific.

Link
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1175. IKE
9:14 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
There not as warm along the Texas coast...probably from all of the rain and clouds. From SW LA eastward and southward...their in the mid-upper 80's.
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1174. IKE
9:13 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Water temperatures in the middle GOM...87 degrees. Around the keys in the 90's.
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1173. IKE
9:03 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
It does appear to be getting stronger and further west. The troughs that are coming down look to be only moving it east some..not much though. Then it builds back again. If a system goes for that weakness...the GOM could be a problem.

I agree...if this pattern holds.....
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1172. nash28
1:59 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I have mentioned this many times over the last few weeks, and I believe it bears repeating...

Our pattern is setting up similar to the one we saw in 2004. Now, that does not mean we are in for four landfalling hurricanes in FL. There is no way anyone could possibly predict that.

What it means is that the A/B High is setting up shop in a similar position to what it did in late July of '04. We were also in an ENSO pattern somewhat similar to where we are now, and actually closer to El Nino.
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1171. IKE
9:00 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Wonder if it's connected with that wave at 50W?
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1170. IKE
8:58 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
The 06Z NAM model run shows a big plume of moisture south of Haiti and Puerto Rico in 84 hours. The GFS has been showing a lot of moisture in the Carribean coming up in a few days.

NAM 06Z........Link
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1169. nash28
1:55 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Here's a link to the MJO forecast.

Link
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1168. FLfishyweather
1:54 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
lol nash
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1167. nash28
1:53 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Yeah Ike. The MJO model has been showing an upward pulse that is currently in the PAC moving out of the PAC (which would give that area the sinking air we have been in) and into the ATL. That being said, models are models so nothing is ever perfect. However, the upward pulse is usually late July and typically sticks around through the meat months of the season.
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1166. nash28
1:53 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Thanks for the compliment:-) I love Cantore, great guy.
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1165. IKE
8:53 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: FLfishyweather at 8:52 AM CDT on July 08, 2007.
nash u sound like jim cantore


LOL!

What's the inside scoop...Nash? The models?
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1164. FLfishyweather
1:51 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
nash u sound like jim cantore
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1163. nash28
1:51 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
TS04 will strengthen some. That being said, it shouldn't last long.

Soon, we will be shifting our attention from the PAC to the ATL once the MJO shifts to an upward pulse.
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1162. IKE
8:51 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
That's a huge high building in in the Atlantic. That tropical wave around 50W with the "V" shape is interesting.
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1161. Snowfire
1:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
We finally have a closed LLC south of Baja California. But I doubt this one is going anywhere--it is moving into higher shear and reduced vertical instability.
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1160. nash28
1:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Morning all. Quiet again in the tropical ATL. Enjoy it while it lasts, because in a couple of weeks, quiet time will be over.
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1159. FLfishyweather
1:43 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
good morning everyone
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1158. BahaHurican
9:30 AM EDT on July 08, 2007
Morning all,

I'm looking at the loops for 4W, and so far it doesn't look like it's improved much, does it?

I think that area will be heading towards its diurnal max before long, so I'm interested to see how the system reacts once the sun comes up on it again.
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1157. IKE
8:27 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
2.96 inches of rain in Defuniak Springs over night in a HEAVY thunderstorm!

The GFS model runs are consistent in bring moisture up out of the western Caribbean in about a week. If this isn't a decent scenario for tropical development somewhere, I'll be surprised.
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1155. Rainman32
9:27 AM EDT on July 08, 2007
Perturbation in the ITCZ



Anyone see Inverted-V signature now?
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1154. bobw999
8:57 AM EDT on July 08, 2007
Theres nothing going on in the tropical atlantic. The big mess on the bottom right hand corner is Tropical Storm 04W.
1152. wunderwomen
7:52 AM EDT on July 08, 2007
good morning
1151. bobw999
7:03 AM EDT on July 08, 2007
Tropical Storm 04W Link
1150. stoormfury
10:44 AM GMT on July 08, 2007
good morning,

Tranquil conditions in the GOMEX ALT AND CARIB this morning. 40- 59 knots south westerly wind shear ,as well as the persistent dry air, will help to preclude tropical storm development for the next 10 days. The only signicant feature this morning, is a pertabation in the ITCZ, near 37 w ,in conjuction with a tropical wave.
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1149. StoryOfTheCane
10:21 AM GMT on July 08, 2007
little W Carib convection

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1148. stormybil
8:36 AM GMT on July 08, 2007
think the NRL is having problems. They haven't updated 94W to 04W. 96L is dead.

thanks do you know whats the blow up arond 7n is that the wave we were watching yestaerday thanks
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1147. RL3AO
3:29 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
I think the NRL is having problems. They haven't updated 94W to 04W. 96L is dead.
1146. stormybil
8:20 AM GMT on July 08, 2007
wait a minute 96l is still up at the navy and nhc sites still 96l i thought we lost that one
whats up with the wave behind it a 5 n is it going to do anything ?
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1145. catfuraplenty
7:12 AM GMT on July 08, 2007
Looks like the biggest storm of this hurricane season is happening indoors, huh? Hope all goes better soon.
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1142. Altestic87
2:07 AM EDT on July 08, 2007
Whats the area of interest right now in the tropics?
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1140. moonlightcowboy
5:28 AM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 3:38 AM GMT on July 08, 2007.
Is there a storm coming?


ABSOLUTELY!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1136. Skyepony (Mod)
5:19 AM GMT on July 08, 2007
July 15th~ Heads up new weather toy release from NHC. Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook , they will be looking for feedback comments til 11/15.

Also the following..
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA /CHS/
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS /CRP/
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA /JAX/
MELBOURNE FLORIDA /MLB/
MIAMI FLORIDA /MFL/
MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA /MHX/
WAKEFIELD VIRGINIA /AKQ/
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA /ILM/
will have the FOR EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAZARDS GRAPHICS, starting by july 16th. Melbourne has had theirs since before Wilma, it's pretty neat when your being threatened & has been pretty accurate as well. You can find them through those local NWS ~links on the left. Soliciting comments til 11-30.

They are also looking for comments & feedback on SLOSH for those that have checked it out & are bored or filled with ideas to make SLOSH greater.

Indian Ocean gets some TSunomi warning Products

For my local ECFL boaters

Look forward to an enhancement/ upgrade to the flood page July 18th.

JULY 24 2007...BEGINNING AT APPROXIMATELY 1500
COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME ~ get some new rain fall & rate satalitte info~ BEGIN DISSEMINATION OF POLAR SATELLITE /MICROWAVE BASED/ PRODUCTS :)
VIA NOAAPORT
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.