Restoring confidence in NHC
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:
Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:
click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.
Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot
Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"
Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.
Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.
Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).
Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.
Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).
Jeff Masters
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Dvorak readings are reporting wind speeds nearing 100kts and a central pressure of 947mb.
That would place it as a definate Cat 3 already (indeed the pressure readings are getting close to levels for Cat 4), and this is still intensifying very rapidly...
The beast in the Pacific is waking up...
3 Directors..in 7 months. Seems more was amiss and is..at the NHC than was reported.And the whole affair was like watching grammar school kids sparring during recess.
We will do what we do every year down here. Watch the NHC and listen to the forecast. But to be sure. We always go to real time observations and make the assessment as to when to react locally. It all trickles down to local reaction. And the Gulf states and regional Emergency Managers all are scratching their heads this Weds morning,.Saying,..man that was a funny, weird week for NOAA and the NHC. And they go back to their local affairs.With that thought,..in the back of their minds. This as we lean into the season proper.
04W Man-Yi Dvorak History File Listing: Link
On the lastest ENSO update they indicate futher strengthing of la nina has slowed.
Personaly i expect neutral conditions during the peak months of activity.
Weakening Trade Winds in the western Pacific and a drop in the SOI, has stopped the recent strengthening of La Niña indicators. However, the eastern Pacific remains cooler than average and there has been a renewal of a cool sub-surface layer in the central Pacific, both of which provide the potential for a La Niña development.
The fact that all major international coupled models, including the POAMA model run daily at the Bureau of Meteorology, forecast further cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the coming months, indicates there is a distinct possibility of a La Niña event occurring in 2007. Cooler than average waters in the central to eastern Pacific, normally accompanied by positive SOI values, are usually associated with wetter than average seasons over eastern and northern Australia, even if La Niña thresholds are not reached.
More Here
Have not seen you here for a while hopefully things are good.
especially since its so hot and humid
up here Love the OT!!!
Large eye on microwave imagery.
Man-Yi (according to Dvorak readings) dropped from 974mb to 948mb in just 3.5 hours.
The only other storm I can find that has a similar rapid drop is for TC Monica (again from Dvorak readings) when she fell from 908mb down to 876mb in a mere three hours.
For comparison Wilma dropped from 953mb to 934mb over a four hour period.
I don't have it on the computer
in the station Im in today
With the MJO shifting into the ATL basin, we can expect an increase in activity.
Busy time of year for me, with my Job,
especially since its so hot and humid
up here Love the OT!!!
I know how you feel it was 92-93 across miami yesterday and looks about the same for the rest of the week before a trof of low pressure brings us an increase in rain into the weekend.
Dont work to hard but OT is always a plus.
Anyone have the link for MIMIC?
I don't have it on the computer
in the station Im in today
Here you go buddy.
Link
Dont work to hard but OT is always a plus."
Its not so bad yesterday and today, We're on Storm Alert, had some Big Boomers move close
to us yesterday, but nothing panned out,
We're supposed to get a sharp cold front
move through today with Big Boomers
CANBERRA (Reuters) - One of the largest giant squid ever found has washed up on a remote Australian beach, sparking a race against time by scientists to examine the rarely seen deep-ocean creature.
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The squid, the mantle or main body of which measured two-meters (6.5 feet) long, was found by a walker late on Tuesday on Ocean Beach, near Strahan, on the western coast of island state Tasmania.
"It's a whopper," Tasmanian Museum senior curator Genefor Walker-Smith told local media on Wednesday. "The main mantle is about one meter across and its total length is about eight meters."
Scientists would take samples from the creature, identified by state parks officials as an Architeuthis, which can grow to more than 10 meters (33 feet) in length and weigh more than 275 kilograms (606 pounds). The Tasmanian animal was 250 kg, Pemberton said.
The tentacles had been badly damaged, so the overall length of the animal could not be determined, a Tasmania Parks and Wildlife spokeswoman said. Park rangers had moved the remains from the water.
Giant squid, once believed to be mythical despite occasional sightings by mariners, feed on fish and other squid. Last year, fishermen off the Falkland Islands caught a complete animal measuring 8.62 meters.
Scientists believe giant squid usually live at ocean depths of between 200-700 meters (660-2,300 ft), relying in part on volleyball-sized eyes, the largest in the animal kingdom.
Scientists said giant squid gathered along Australia's continental shelf in cold mid-winter waters to feed on Grenadier fish. The squid were in turn hunted by sperm whales migrating north from the Southern Ocean.
Japanese ocean researchers captured the first ever pictures of a live giant squid in September 2004 off Japan's Ogasawara Islands at a depth of 900 meters
giant squid any one???
Whos got the Red Sauce?
Thats the problem its 144hrs out and when you go out that far the skill level of the model begins to drop of.But overall your right lets see if others models pick up on something developing.
Know that 144 hours is a LONG time
How accurate has the CMC modeling been?
Know that 144 hours is a LONG time
Iam not expecting any development in the tropics through mid next week atleast as conditions are unfavorable for any significant development to take place.I think as we approach the end of july and into the early parts of august things could start to ramp up as it ususally does in a normal season.
Bahamas, Those Bad Boys tend to run up the
coast, and we are Long Over Due up here
for a Blow
Link
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