Restoring confidence in NHC
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:
Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:
click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.
Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot
Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"
Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.
Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.
Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).
Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.
Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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T-storm again right over Celebration!
apocalyps and weatherblog are the liberals of the board, don't listen to them either
apocalyps and weatherblog are the liberals of the board, don't listen to them either
Why?
lol...I thought he was banned?
apocalyps and weatherblog are the liberals of the board, don't listen to them either
Either that or they are just good people that are trying to educate and thus, save lives. I know 23. He's been through all the storms I have, except Charley. That Miami boy knows his stuff. I'll be damned if you can tell me otherwise..
On the other hand, people like apocalyps think every invest that forms will be a hurricane the next day. Lol
TayTay and hurricane23 are the naysayers of the blog, don't listen to them
apocalyps and weatherblog are the liberals of the board, don't listen to them either
That's why I doubt it'll last long enough to be an invest.
You miss the action when you do..
I read all of you guys. Daily. Like a cartoon strip in here sometimes. I thank you all for vital south eastern tropical info and a little comedy
Altestic87--I have--like most people on this blog--an interest in weather and am here to learn.
I am certainly not liberal in that sense, as I do agree with TayTay asbout this CATL wave not forming...too many factors that will not let it develop.
GFS = Gets Forecasts So wrong
CMC = Crappy Meteorology Computer model
That would be idiotic for sure...
But, you just cant get that close to 200 MPH from the land...
Watching this very powerful typhoon hopefully it does not hit land with this intensity cause if it did not much would be left.
937mb with winds at 115kts according to NRL.
Anything on the web about the skin example you gave?
But no. Everyone has to politicize everything these days.
What's next folks? The Politicization of home gardening? I can see it now!
"Honey, leave that weed alone. It has rights."
"But babe, it's a weed. It's out of order in our otherwise perfect garden. It needs to go."
"Sorry Dearest, I can't stand for the wanton weed eradication of this regime. Step away from the wary plant or our personal life suffers. Besides, you don't have the funding or political support to pull that weed because your yearly budget is tied up in Chemlawn's Weed Furtherance Committee, which as you know controls all plant growth around here. Additionally, the public has no confidence in the head of the NHC, which is controlled by NOAA, which says what the weather is going to do. So you can't even predict accurately if it's going to rain tomorrow to replenish that poor weed. Therefore, in accordance with FDA standards, and in agreeance with the dept of homeland security and in cooperation with the NTSB, I have to deny any further access to that weed. Please, step aside."
"Yes ma'am :-("
There, I said it. Please, for the love of all that is holy, leave politics out of weather forecasting. Those blobs, nay, OUR blobs, need an agenda-free environment in which to either achieve greatness or be blown away to nothingness.
Politics is for budgets and wars. Weather forecasting is for the people, and should therefore be unbiased and by the people.
Comatose out.
Link
...this was shot 25 miles from the buzzsaw eyewall....scary to say the least....the most impressive sound of hurricane WIND recorded in Andrew 1992...turn it up and blog with that in the background LOL
Link
Wasn't me that said that. I never brought your name up.
The highest winds back in florida city i saw were 139mph with some higher gusts.
Good evening...
Watching this very powerful typhoon hopefully it does not hit land with this intensity cause if it did not much would be left.
937mb with winds at 115kts according to NRL.
Altestic,
I thought Hurricane 23 is a nay sayer about development??
Evening adrian...18z GFS still shows that new pattern coming up.Interesting stuff,if it continues.
He kris....
Yea i just looked over the 18z thanks and yea looking forward to jeffs blog this coming monday.
Im still waiting for some stuff to magically appear, as some say things that just dig holes for them to fall into.
Dont they?
i dont worry about dust it doesn't impact hurricanes that much
I can remember three more storms we woulda had last year if not for dust.
Lets stroll down memory lane ..
Not if its gonna upset anyone, sir
What pattern do you see on the new 18z GFS?
You give me sustained winds like that on land and we're talkin Tent City
Misterperfect i still have some video footage sent to me by friends of the aftermath with andrew and the area of 312 and US1 was complete devastated with house after house in ruins.My house was one of those.Material things can be replaced but life cant be.
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