Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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538. hurricane23
8:16 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
The national hurricane center recorded wind gusts in the range of 150-160 mph that morning.

The highest winds back in florida city i saw were 139mph with some higher gusts.
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537. MisterPerfect
12:18 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
'Sup Adrian. Did you get that soaker earlier around 4 today bro?
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535. TayTay
12:16 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
TayTay- I didn't even know I was "liberal"--well I guess I am then...LOL..

Wasn't me that said that. I never brought your name up.
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534. weatherboykris
12:17 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Evening adrian...18z GFS still shows that new pattern coming up.Interesting stuff,if it continues.
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532. MisterPerfect
12:14 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
If you're a wind speed fan...check this youtube of andrew...most of you have already...


...this was shot 25 miles from the buzzsaw eyewall....scary to say the least....the most impressive sound of hurricane WIND recorded in Andrew 1992...turn it up and blog with that in the background LOL

Link
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531. kmanislander
12:15 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
The latest QS pass does not show a low with the CATL wave. Only a wind shift on the far E side of the system and away from the convection on the W.



Link
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530. Comatose
12:15 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Politics and weather forecasting should go together like peanut butter and Windex.

But no. Everyone has to politicize everything these days.

What's next folks? The Politicization of home gardening? I can see it now!

"Honey, leave that weed alone. It has rights."
"But babe, it's a weed. It's out of order in our otherwise perfect garden. It needs to go."
"Sorry Dearest, I can't stand for the wanton weed eradication of this regime. Step away from the wary plant or our personal life suffers. Besides, you don't have the funding or political support to pull that weed because your yearly budget is tied up in Chemlawn's Weed Furtherance Committee, which as you know controls all plant growth around here. Additionally, the public has no confidence in the head of the NHC, which is controlled by NOAA, which says what the weather is going to do. So you can't even predict accurately if it's going to rain tomorrow to replenish that poor weed. Therefore, in accordance with FDA standards, and in agreeance with the dept of homeland security and in cooperation with the NTSB, I have to deny any further access to that weed. Please, step aside."

"Yes ma'am :-("


There, I said it. Please, for the love of all that is holy, leave politics out of weather forecasting. Those blobs, nay, OUR blobs, need an agenda-free environment in which to either achieve greatness or be blown away to nothingness.

Politics is for budgets and wars. Weather forecasting is for the people, and should therefore be unbiased and by the people.

Comatose out.
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529. sporteguy03
12:16 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
weatherboykris,
Anything on the web about the skin example you gave?
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528. hurricane23
8:11 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Good evening...

Watching this very powerful typhoon hopefully it does not hit land with this intensity cause if it did not much would be left.

937mb with winds at 115kts according to NRL.
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527. weatherboykris
12:13 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Andrew didn't have 200mph winds....Camille did though,and so did the `935 Key's storm.Did you ever hear about what happened to the people stuck on the beach in that one?The one's who's bodies where found....they were skinned alive by the blowing sand.
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526. MisterPerfect
12:12 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
I don't want to point fingers and say: "I rode out the most fierce Hurricane!"

That would be idiotic for sure...

But, you just cant get that close to 200 MPH from the land...
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525. weatherboykris
12:12 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
LOL phillies.
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524. philliesrock
8:12 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
GFS and CMC still show an invest.

GFS = Gets Forecasts So wrong
CMC = Crappy Meteorology Computer model
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523. weatherboykris
12:10 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
.
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522. MisterPerfect
12:10 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Too bad Andrew destroyed this country's hurricane capital and most data instruments are considered void..
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521. weatherblog
12:05 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
TayTay- I didn't even know I was "liberal"--well I guess I am then...LOL..

Altestic87--I have--like most people on this blog--an interest in weather and am here to learn.

I am certainly not liberal in that sense, as I do agree with TayTay asbout this CATL wave not forming...too many factors that will not let it develop.
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520. sporteguy03
12:08 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
I don't recall Adrian saying OMG in his posts can you find them? He bases his info on facts and figures if there was proof of development he'd say it.
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519. MisterPerfect
12:09 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
JPer...I block no one.

You miss the action when you do..


I read all of you guys. Daily. Like a cartoon strip in here sometimes. I thank you all for vital south eastern tropical info and a little comedy
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518. weatherboykris
12:06 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
randommichael,you asked earlier where to get info on Andrew.The NHC archived all of their advisories,including discussions,public advisories,forecast model data,recon data,etc.Go to the NHC website,select "seasons archive" on the left,on the drop down menu for the Atlantic basin,select "1958-1994".Click on "1992",then select "Andrew" and you're there.
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517. TayTay
12:07 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
d


That's why I doubt it'll last long enough to be an invest.
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516. MisterPerfect
12:08 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: Altestic87 at 11:58 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

TayTay and hurricane23 are the naysayers of the blog, don't listen to them

apocalyps and weatherblog are the liberals of the board, don't listen to them either
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515. weathermanwannabe
7:05 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
That latest CATL wave is like a Bridge To Far right now to make predictions on development; To Far South and To Far East......Give it a few days to see if it persists...
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513. Altestic87
8:04 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Adrian says, "omg the shear is too high, omg the air is too dry, the dust will overwhelm it, it won't develop for sure, etc."

On the other hand, people like apocalyps think every invest that forms will be a hurricane the next day. Lol
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512. TayTay
12:05 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
23 knows where to get all the good info on storms. His predictions are usually right.
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511. MisterPerfect
12:05 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
And I ain't no liberal either.
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510. MisterPerfect
12:02 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
TayTay and hurricane23 are the naysayers of the blog, don't listen to them

apocalyps and weatherblog are the liberals of the board, don't listen to them either


Either that or they are just good people that are trying to educate and thus, save lives. I know 23. He's been through all the storms I have, except Charley. That Miami boy knows his stuff. I'll be damned if you can tell me otherwise..
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509. TayTay
12:01 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Because I said 96L would fizzle before it even got close to the Carib. Apparently not going hyper about a poorly organised wave makes me a "naysayer".
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508. weatherblog
12:00 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Altestic87...and what are you?? *shakes head*

lol...I thought he was banned?
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507. sporteguy03
12:00 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
TayTay and hurricane23 are the naysayers of the blog, don't listen to them

apocalyps and weatherblog are the liberals of the board, don't listen to them either

Why?
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506. Altestic87
7:57 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
TayTay and hurricane23 are the naysayers of the blog, don't listen to them

apocalyps and weatherblog are the liberals of the board, don't listen to them either
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505. sporteguy03
11:57 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
JP,
T-storm again right over Celebration!
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504. Tazmanian
4:56 PM PDT on July 11, 2007
i think i may be going with Proenza
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503. TayTay
11:48 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
They always look good when they're in the ITCZ. I don't know if wind shear is supposed to relax a bit in the next few days, but it's headed into 30kt shear at the moment.
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501. TayTay
11:45 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Plus, it's way too close to the equator.
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500. TayTay
11:35 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Surrounded by moderate shear and dry air. North of the ITCZ is fairly dry. I haven't got a clue what will happen with that dry air and shear over the next few days, but it doesn't look good for the convection right now.
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498. Drakoen
11:37 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Anyone see the GFS 18z run. It is showing something at the 950mb. Also the CMC is hinting something as well.
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494. TayTay
11:32 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
I think that thing has some spin to it...and thunderstorms are building...is it developing?????

Where is this? I don't know what you're talking about.
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492. benirica
11:23 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
if the entire thing turns into a storm, it would get a go at rivaling man-yi in size.
although it is still completely and totally up in the air if it will even be an invest
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491. Miamiweather
11:23 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Storm you got mail
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489. Tazmanian
4:16 PM PDT on July 11, 2007
help me pick out a new ID if you can think of any drop the names by my blog
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488. benirica
11:12 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
should the 35w wave be taken as a whole system or two or is the "organized" western part the actual area or... what?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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