Restoring confidence in NHC
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:
Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:
click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.
Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot
Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"
Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.
Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.
Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).
Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.
Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Elevation: 148 ft / 45 m
77 °F / 25 °C
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F / 24 °C
Wind: 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 70 mph / 113 km/h / 31.4 m/s
Pressure: 28.78 in / 974 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 1.8 miles / 2.9 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 800 ft / 243 m
(Above Ground Level)
Models are hit and miss.... There have been several storms over the years that were called DAYS before they actually formed. On the flip side, the models can call for a storm that never materializes....
That's exactly the way to describe it.
This much is almost certain...that moisture around 40N is heading west-northwest and will be affecting the islands this weekend. It looks to continue heading WNW after that. That's what I've noticed from every model I've looked at for the past 2 days.
Link
21 m/s is about 40 knots..
The battle of Okinawa was one of the last major battles of World War II and was the last ground combat offensive during the pacific campaign. During the battle, over 12,000 American service members lost their lives, along with more than 90,000 Japanese service members and civilians.
Is there a place where I can get live weather conditions from Okinawa?"
From earlier in the blog:
Japan Meterology Agency Link
Link
LOL... This is what a Google seasrch for Altestic brings (I was just wondering what it meant):
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Did you mean: Autistic
LOL!
Please do not put me with him I do not wish cast
Issued at 18:00 UTC, 12 July 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 24.9N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 170NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 350NM EAST 280NM WEST
"Observed at: Naha City, JP
Elevation: 26 ft
[Rain Showers]
81 °F
Showers Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 33 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 59 mph
Pressure: 28.65 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 800 ft
Scattered Clouds 1000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1500 ft
Few 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)"......
I see Altestic is gone.
Bring on the next troll!!"
But he keeps following us home... Can't we keep it?
7:12 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Thanks again!
OMG, numbers like that are just mind numbing. Senseless, senseless loss of life on both sides. And look at us now, we're great allies and trade partners. My brain hurts trying to comprehend losses of this magnitude.
Some, ...thousands ..gave their lives so we can blog here today Please dont diminish that FACT .
It dont jibe.
Try this then click on Okinawa
I am seeing it fine
Some, ...thousands ..gave their lives so we can blog here today Please dont diminish that FACT .
It dont jibe.
Dont patronise me dear, take a step back and look at the big picture. ANY killing is senseless. I did not disrespect what our servicemen did in that war by what i wrote. I have family that served as well.
And what all my family members that served have felt, and what was my point, is that humanity can do this to itself. Can decide that for whatever reason, be it oil resources, land, precious minerals, etc. that we can decide to kill and kill over such issues. It is indeed senseless. It shows how truly underdeveloped our species is. We have so far to go.
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