Restoring confidence in NHC
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.
Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:
Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:
click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.
Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot
Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"
Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.
Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.
Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).
Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.
Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Drak - you have mail
you have mail now.
Also noticed with some of the model runs that the shear will be lessening and lifting slightly northward.
Yes shear is moving slightly northward. but i would like to see shear escapte the Central Caribbean before we talk about development.
I wish man yi was in the atlantic hehe
Why???
Posted By: Altestic87 at 6:43 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.
I wish man yi was in the atlantic hehe
Why???
so we have some in to talk about in the atlantic
Posted By: Drakoen at 6:44 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.
Posted By: Altestic87 at 6:43 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.
I wish man yi was in the atlantic hehe
Why???
so we have some in to talk about in the atlantic
LOL. sure it would be interesting but after its all said and done you are left with death and destruction. IE Katrina.
looks like a nice wave
her we go now you can tell
Link
Check out the whites around the southwestern eyewall!!!!
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2007 Time : 173300 UTC
Lat : 19:47:37 N Lon : 129:51:22 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 908.9mb/132.2kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 7.1 7.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km
Center Temp : +13.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
That wave is very disorganize. The GFS does show a 1012 mb pressure reading in the 12z run we will have to wait and see what happens tonight. Also we need to see what the models say tonight.
Anyone seen any info on the two areas east of virginia.........I know that the NHC said it was in the mid levels.....The visible sat looks interesting............Oh I forgot If they are not potential for landfalls then we dont care.......
Look at all the whites forming around the eyewall now. Before only sw quadrent, now all around the eyewall!
"The storm will become fully extratropical by tau 96."
should hit Okinawa as a Cat 4 maybe Cat 5. Should Hit mainland china as a Cat 3.
Drako... what grade did you get in World Geography class?
just type severe in the search and it is the 4th image
Link
If you want to register here please do so by closing out of the page with my image on it and coming back here and clicking on this link then registering
"Observed at: Okinawa, JP
Elevation: 148 ft
[Scattered Clouds]
84 F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 80 F
Wind: 14 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 29.57 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 97 F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Viewing: 251 - 301
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