Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Which model do you trust? And, Arctic sea ice reaches a record minimum

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:33 PM GMT on August 17, 2007

Hurricane Dean, now a major Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, continues to intensify and grow larger in size. Dean pounded Martinique and St. Lucia this morning, and claimed its first victim when a 62-year old man died on St. Lucia while trying to save his cow from raging flood waters.

Dean's eye is now visible on long range radar out of Puerto Rico. Buoy 42059 is in Dean's path, and should be interesting to watch.

We're fairly confident of the 1-2 day forecast, which has Dean headed west to west-northwest over the Central Caribbean, very close to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, then into the Western Caribbean. After that, things become murkier. The latest 12Z runs of the NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS, and HWRF computer models all show Dean hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, and continuing on into the Gulf of Mexico towards a second landfall near or south of the Texas border. The HWRF run is slower, and does not take Dean to the coast at the end of its forecast period. The big outlier is the GFDL model, which now takes Dean northwest into central Louisiana. Which model is correct? The problem is that each model has a different solution for the behavior of an upper-level low pressure system expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Which model should we trust?

In 2006, the official NHC forecast performed better than any of the individual computer forecast models. However, several "consensus" forecasts made using an average of the "big four" computer models (GFDL, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS), slightly outperformed the official forecast at some time periods (Figure 1). The Florida State Super-Ensemble (FSSE), for example, combines the "big four" models on the basis of past performance in an attempt to correct for biases in those models. (The FSSE is owned by a private company, which makes it available to NHC but not the general public). The Florida State Super Ensemble slightly out-performed the official NHC forecast at most forecast times.

The "big four" models are plotted on wunderground.com's computer model page for Dean, (along with the inferior BAMM model, which is plotted since it is always available quickly, and has done well at longer range forecasts in the past). We do not get tracking points for the ECMWF or HWRF models at this point, so you'll have to go the raw plots to see those forecasts. Note that three of the "big four" models performed well in 2006, with the GFDL and GFS performing the best. The UKMET had a very poor showing in the Atlantic in 2006. However, the UKMET was the best-performing model in the Eastern Pacific in 2006, along with the GFDL and BAMM models.

The European Center's model (ECMWF) outperformed the "big four" consensus models for 72, 96, and 120 hours forecasts in the Atlantic. However, the ECMWF model was generally not available in time to be used by forecasters. Efforts are being made to make the ECMWF available in a more timely fashion for the 2007 season, which would be a big help. We also have the new HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research Forecast) model this year. In tests done on a number of hurricanes for past years, the HWRF performed about as well as the GFDL (Figure 2).

Figure 1. Track forecast skill in 2006 of the official forecast and the various models, compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists). Note that many models had a negative skill for their 120 hour (5 day) forecast. The official NHC forecast had about 10% skill at 5 days. Image credit: NHC.

Figure 2. Track errors for 48-hour forecasts from the 2006 version of the GFDL model (black) and the new HWRF model (red). The HWRF model performed better on some hurricane than the GFDL, and worse on others. Overall, the two models had about the same performance on the cases tested. Image credit: Naomi Surgi, NOAA Environmental Modeling Center.

In conclusion, the official NHC forecast outperforms all the individual models, particularly at long ranges. Looking at the individual model plots can be helpful to determine the uncertainty in the forecast, but it's tough to beat the NHC. In the case of Dean, where one model is an outlier from the rest, it is usually better to believe the consensus of the other models.

If you want to look at plots of the individual models, I've written a description of the various models and where to find these plots on our tropical weather page.

Arctic sea ice shrinks to record low
The National Snow and Ice Data Center announced today that Arctic sea ice has just surpassed the previous single-day (absolute minimum) record for the lowest extent ever measured by satellite. Satellite measurements began in 1979. Sea ice extent has fallen below the 2005 record low absolute minimum and is still melting. Sea ice extent is currently tracking at 5.26 million square kilometers (2.02 million square miles), just below the 2005 record absolute minimum of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles). This new record was set a full five weeks before the usual late September minima in ice extent, so truly unprecedented melting is occurring in the Arctic. The most recent images from the North Pole webcam show plenty of melt water and rainy conditions near the Pole.

Figure 2. Current extent of the polar sea ice, compared to the normal for this time in August (pink line). Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters

Hurricane Dean near the island Puerto Rico (Hector777)

the ciclonic surge hard mind in Salinas,Puerto Rico mines the Community Las Ochenta in the south of Puerto Rico

Categories: Climate Change

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2901. IKE 11:21 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Posted By: ForecasterColby at 6:20 AM CDT on August 18, 2007. Bobby, T#s are satellite estimates. I would be suprised if Dean's were that high, given the current reorganization. I agree. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2902. JupiterFL 11:23 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
That eye is starting to tighten up. I would not be surprised to see a EWRC sometime very soon. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

2903. sunnyandshear 11:24 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Good thing Dean can't move South much, or there'd be a whole Southern Crowd harping about wsw wobbles. Fact that Florida or US Coast isn't South, would keep the group's numbers small though..

2904. Masquer08er 11:27 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Palm Harbor, If you are betting a beer at a bar, your out of the picture. If your family's safety is an issue, keep an eye on it. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 388

2905. hurricane667 11:29 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Dean is really stregthening and reorganized with intense convectoin. would not be surprised by a cat 5 by the 8 or 11 advisories Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 161

2906. watchingnva 11:29 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
yea, i was just going to say...looks like deans already ready for an ewrc...... thats insane...hell only grom larger in size with one...might lose a lil punh for a few hours...but will strenghten again as soon as the new eye tightens up...crazy... Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2907. miken62 11:29 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Great...now we need a blog for gambling...place your bets!!!!! Member Since: January 14, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 213

2909. Keys99 11:30 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Good Morning I have to agree with Red Robins forcast NWS Key West at 4 pm yesterday forcast the ULL to be over us this am. CLoudy and Rain here now. THe ULL on WV looks to be moving West to WSW and moving faster then it was yesterday at this time. Only time will tell where the two interact. I think it will hit the Yucatan tip or shoot the gap Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 132

2910. PalmHarbor 11:30 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Heh I just want to make sure I can really not worry about it, I have no interest in betting on the destruction of myself or others:)If we are clear I'm happy as an undiscovered clam on Clearwater Beach and will hope for the best for those not clear.

2911. bajelayman2 11:31 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
nolesjeff, I am in Barbados. Just a layman here, as my name says. Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 468

2912. watchingnva 11:32 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
if it was to stay on this shift to 303 or so...jamaica would get a direct hit...the eye would almost go over the entire island...lets just hope this is a overgrown wobble... Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2913. PalmHarbor 11:32 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Posted By: JupiterFL at 11:30 AM GMT on August 18, 2007. There are more Floridians on here than any other group. If there are more of us then there is a higher percentage that we will have more idiots. I think you all should cut us some slack until school starts next week. Plus everyone down here is a product of someone from the Northeast. Dare I say more. LOL well spoken:)

2914. eaglesrock 11:34 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Mike Seidel is in Jamaica right now. They're probably saving Cantore for when it hits the US...LOL

2915. Masquer08er 11:35 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
WatchingnVA, Did you mean Haiti/DR? Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 388

2916. IKE 11:35 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
San Juan,PR is within 150-200 miles of the center of Dean...their winds....east-southeast at 6 mph. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2917. waccamaw16 11:36 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
looks like the ull is holding its ground and starting to affect dean a little.

2918. WPBHurricane05 11:38 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
GFDL shifting further south Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

2919. Masquer08er 11:38 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
There are more Floridians on here than any other group. If there are more of us then there is a higher percentage that we will have more idiots. I think you all should cut us some slack until school starts next week. Plus everyone down here is a product of someone from the Northeast. Dare I say more. LOL BTW,School started Aug.9 here. :::getting my slack cutting scissors::: Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 388

2921. WPBHurricane05 11:41 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
The models slowly starting to agree Link Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

2922. WildHorseDesertTx 11:42 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Good morning ya'll, south of Corpus here. I am just keeping my eye on Dean and getting plywood ready, just in case. Member Since: July 23, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 107

2923. rxse7en 11:42 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Ugh, models are showing a freight train of lows coming in after Dean. The CMC is especially creepy. I'm thinking this weekend is a good time to stock up on water, propane, food, batteries and gas. Gonna run the generator for the first time to check it out--thing's been sitting, wrapped up in my garage for two seasons unused. B Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

2924. BiloxiGirl 11:42 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
What is the story with the CLP5 Model always seeming to have this further east? Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 56

2925. sporteguy03 11:43 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
That ULL is putting up some fight, it has slowed Dean down some but not for long. Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824

2926. WPBHurricane05 11:43 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
What is the story with the CLP5 Model always seeming to have this further east? Mix between Climatology and Persistence. Not accurate. Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

2927. BiloxiGirl 11:44 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
gotcha Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 56

2928. FMTXWMAN 11:44 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Latest WV loops appear to show Dean undergoing a eyewall replacement cycle. Also some have said there's dry air entrainment. It looks like it, but my train of thought goes towards the wind field expanding and it's just where the storms are firing and not yet being completely pulled into the core circulation. The good news is that as Dean becomes larger it will become more difficult to maintain cat 5 status due to the amount of mass all that moving air begins to have. Still we have to keep in mind record THCP in Dean's path so it's also possible Dean could set a record for largest cat 5 storm. Member Since: May 1, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 66

2929. watchingnva 11:45 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
no mas...just jamaica...i dont see dean going that far north....and unless something drastically changes over the next 2 days...im not seeing a north turn either...a lil further north that an emily track...but very simalar...Im not saying that things cant change...but as of right now i see a landfall in mexico...bout 50-150 miles south of the border...but that can def. change... Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2930. extreme236 11:47 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
what i have noticed though with dea is that his size has been decreasing over the past couple days. perhaps he is becoming more tight and compact Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

2931. watchingnva 11:48 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
anyone else see the cooler water being shown and pulled north into the gulf in this SST eddy loop ???...wierd... Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2932. sunnyandshear 11:48 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
it was to stay on this shift to 303 or so...jamaica would get a direct hit...the eye would almost go over the entire island...lets just hope this is a overgrown wobble...""" If your going to endure a Hurricane, having the eye go over you is a good thing. The Eye is nice and calm, and when it passes over, it gives you a breather and time to shore up lose or broken defenses. If a hurricane has got to come, hope you get some eye.

2933. gsueagle07 11:49 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Just like I have been saying...Mexico/Texas border...all models coming into agreement...Jamica and the Yucatan pennisula is the areas that might take the brunt of the storm....I don't believe northern Mexico is all that populated....

2934. guygee 11:49 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
"What is the story with the CLP5 Model always seeming to have this further east?" BiloxiGirl - CLP5 is just he climatology prediction, something like the average expected historical track. I has no relationship to current conditions...it is only shown for comparison and benchmarking the other models. Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2830

2935. Masquer08er 11:50 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Tell me why I am wrong in thinking Mean Dean looks like it going to Haiti/DR. Sorry about the Mean Dean. I've been dying to say it. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 388

2936. gsueagle07 11:51 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
All models now in agreement...that ridge of high pressure will continue it on its westerly track....this time the ridge protects the US...

2937. Bobbyweather 11:51 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
000 WTNT34 KNHC 181150 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007 ...CORE OF HURRICANE DEAN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES... 990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 250 MILES... 400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN COULD HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAINS AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE HURRICANE AND WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH....122 KM/HR AS DEAN MOVED NEARBY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.4 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 88 Comments: 2470

2938. watchingnva 11:51 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
i personnaly would like to have none of the eyewall...lol..but yes I know what your talking about...but a drag with the southern eyewall would be better than going through both in my opinion... Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2939. WeatherSpotter 11:53 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
WOW 157 KT IN 48 HOURS 180 MPH CAT 5 HURRICANE What a record breaker!!!

2940. WPBHurricane05 11:54 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
WOW 157 KT IN 48 HOURS 180 MPH CAT 5 HURRICANE What a record breaker!!! Not really. They go by pressure when it comes to records, and even if you did wind speed there have been few to achieve 190mph. Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

2941. extreme236 11:54 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
ok so dean is undergoing an EWRC Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

2942. guygee 11:57 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Somebody showed the GFDL above, but isn't the 2007081800 GFDL run the most recent? That run shows Dean clipping Western Cuba then on to a Central TX coast landfall. Edit - No, my mistake, the map above shows the 08/18 06Z run, more recent than my link above. Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2830

2943. ForecasterColby 11:58 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
000 URNT15 KNHC 181151 AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 08 20070818 ... 114830 1528N 06745W 6957 02738 9553 +111 +111 137143 145 121 000 00 143kt flight-level.

2944. IKE 11:58 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Posted By: guygee at 6:57 AM CDT on August 18, 2007. Somebody showed the GFDL above, but isn't the 2007081800 GFDL run the most recent? That run shows Dean clipping Western Cuba then on to a Central TX coast landfall. ' The one above is the latest run...the 06Z run of the GFDL. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2945. WeatherSpotter 11:59 AM GMT on August 18, 2007
Most likely if your going to have a hurricane with 180 MPH winds then your gunna have a pressure close to the record books.

2946. WPBHurricane05 12:00 PM GMT on August 18, 2007
Most likely if your going to have a hurricane with 180 MPH winds then your gunna have a pressure close to the record books. That is true. Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

2947. Bobbyweather 12:00 PM GMT on August 18, 2007
143 kts is 165 mph!! 165mph is a Category 5 hurricane. Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 88 Comments: 2470

2948. JRRP 12:00 PM GMT on August 18, 2007
NOW DEAN LOOK LIKE IT GOING TO HIT HAITI Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4304

2949. extreme236 12:01 PM GMT on August 18, 2007
that is flight level winds Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

2950. WeatherSpotter 12:01 PM GMT on August 18, 2007
GFDL saying 161 KT Wow what a monster

2951. WPBHurricane05 12:01 PM GMT on August 18, 2007
143 kts is 165 mph!! 165mph is a Category 5 hurricane. That was flight level, at the surface it would be around 150 mph. Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 55 Comments: 7895

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