Extremely dangerous Dean heads for Jamaica
Hurricane Dean put on an impressive round of rapid intensification last night, deepening 49 millibars in just 24 hours. Dean is now a major Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. Reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Dean has likely peaked in intensity, and may be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye has shrunk from 20 miles in diameter yesterday down to 13 miles in diameter this morning. This inner eyewall will probably shrink even more and collapse sometime in the next day, to be replaced by a new outer eyewall 30-40 miles in diameter. Dean's winds may decrease to the lower end of the Category 4 scale, 135-140 mph, if that occurs. The inner eyewall and the new outer eyewall that is forming can be seen on a microwave satellite image from this morning (Figure 1). The 11:02am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters said that the southern portion of the inner eyewall was missing, so the eyewall is probably collapsing now.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Hurricane Dean at 7:31am EDT Saturday August 18. Two small partial rings of strong echoes, marking the boundaries of concentric inner and outer eyewalls, are visible. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
Dean pounded Martinique, St. Lucia, and Dominica yesterday, and the storm's death toll now stands at three. A 62-year old man died on St. Lucia while trying to save his cow from raging flood waters, and a rain-triggered landslide killed a mother and child in their home in Dominica. Martinique suffered the worst damage, with 100% of the banana crop destroyed, 70% of the sugar cane crop gone, and considerable damage to buildings on the south end of the island. Lesser damage occurred on Dominica and St.Lucia, and overall, it appears that the Lesser Antilles islands were fortunate to get off so lightly.
Puerto Rico
Dean's eye is visible on long range radar out of Puerto Rico. A major spiral band of rain moved over Puerto Rico at about 11am EDT, and will bring up to four inches of rain to the island today. Radar estimated rainfall from the Puerto Rico radar shows up to two inches had fallen as of 1pm EDT. The wind/pressure plot from Buoy 42059 south of Puerto Rico shows that Dean passed just north of that location this morning, bringing wind gusts to 66 knots.
Dominican Republic
The tourist town of Punta Cana on the east tip of the island reported sustained winds of 34 mph, gusting to 46 mph this morning. The capital city of Santo Domingo can expect sustained winds of 40-45 mph today as Dean makes its closest pass to the south. Heavy rains of 1-3 inches in non-mountainous area will create some minor flooding problems in these areas. Mountainous area along the south coast of the Dominican Republic, particularly in the rugged Barahona Peninsula that juts farthest south into the Caribbean, will receive higher rain amounts and are at great risk of life-threatening flash floods.
Haiti
Dean will make a very close passage to the south of Haiti's mountainous southern Peninsula, and the capital city of Port-au-Prince could experience winds just below hurricane force. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane passing so close to Haiti is a serious threat. Deforestation has denuded the mountainsides of protective tree cover, and flood waters will wash down the mountains into populated areas. The only saving grace in this situation may be the relatively rapid forward speed of Dean, which will reduce the amount of rain that will fall, compared to other hurricanes that have affected Haiti.
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Jamaica is my greatest concern. A direct hit by Dean would make it the worst hurricane strike on Jamaica for over a century. Jamaica has not received a direct hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane since perhaps 1832. The worst strikes of the 20th century were Category 3 Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Category 2 Hurricane Charlie of 1951. The Cayman Islands also have much to fear from Dean. Dean could rival Ivan as the Cayman's worst hurricane strike of the past century.
Cuba
Mountainous regions in Cuba area also at risk of dangerous flash flooding from Dean. However, civil defense is so good in Cuba that I don't expect any loss of life. Portions of south Cuba will experience sustained tropical force winds.
Mexico
The models have come into much better agreement this morning on the longer term forecast, and it looks very bad for Cancun and Cozumel. Dean will give those resort areas a pounding like they received from Hurricane Emily (Category 4) in 2005, and Hurricane Gilbert (Category 5) in 1988. Dean will probably not be as bad as Wilma (Category 4) in 2005, since Wilma stalled out over Cancun for three days as a major hurricane. Dean is moving quickly, and will not linger long over any of the regions it strikes.
Texas and Louisiana
Things are looking much brighter for Louisiana, as the GFDL model has come in line with all of the other models in predicting a landfall in Southern Texas or Northern Mexico. It now appears likely that Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will knock Dean down a category or two before it can approach the Texas coast. The upper level low that was forecast by the GFDL to potentially steer Dean northwards appears to be weakening and moving westwards, out of the way of Dean. You can watch this upper level low on water vapor satellite loops. It is the counter-clockwise spinning region that has moved west off the Florida coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this low continues to weaken and move westwards, it will not be able to swing Dean northwestwards towards northeast Texas and Louisiana. If Dean does manage to catch up to the upper level low, the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low will bring some south-to-north winds over Dean that would steer it on a more northerly track into the Gulf of Mexico.
The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight and Sunday morning, so we should have some excellent model runs available Sunday morning and afternoon.
I'll have a short update tonight by 9pm, and a full update Sunday morning by noon. Tonight's update will focus on Jamaica, and I'll post the relevant radar and current condition links to follow the storm's path. I'll talk about Typhoon Sepat, as well.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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By the way, I'm in Trinidad, 11n 61 w.
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 8:39 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.
BUT to me that looks like what the models have done and adjusted @ the beginning of the week for the ULL's etc movement.
I don't think so...the spread on the models is all the way from the SE Mexican coast to Corpus Christi...it's a massive arc. I don't think the models quite know what to do with Dean beyond a couple of days.
I live on Cayman Brac, Cayman Islands. I just ran across this site and it's a very impressive site. Jeff you said, and I quote: "The Cayman Islands also have much to fear from Dean. Dean could rival Ivan as the Cayman's worst hurricane strike of the past century."
Jeff I am 90 miles NE of the big Island Grand Cayman, and 90 south of Cuba on Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and I are 6 mile apart. My queston is: Which of the 3 Cayman Islands do YOU put Deans track path on? Since I have seen more than 4 different track paths of Dean I truly would like to know which one of the tracks is correct?...
I was here on the Brac when Ivan hit Grand Cayman, the eye of Ivan was about 30 miles south of the Big Island, which put Ivan about 120 miles south of the Brac, and we here on the Brac still got 30+ foot waves hitting the south side of the Island, with about 100+ MPH winds, and higher gust.
Tell me Jeff do you think Dean will intensify after it hits Jamaica and warmer water? Many forecasters have said Dean will intensify more after it hits Jamiaca. Forcasters say the Cayman Islands are in Deans track path. BUT tell me Jeff do you know which one of the Cayman Islands are in it's direct path? Please e-mail me if you know, you have my address or you can post your answers here!
Thanks Jeff.
BracGypsy!
Is it humanitarian to withhold Cat 5 Info?
huh....
Is there anything else down the pike after Dean is gone? I saw the CMC model has got a system heading for south florida out 5 days???
Yes, the CMC is forecasting a new Storm to form out near the Bahamas.
16.1 N 70.2 W - 5pm ET (wow, I actually got it right!)
16.4 N 70.9 W - 8pm ET
16.8 N 71.7 W - 11pm ET
17.0 N 72.5 W - 2am ET
Kingston, Jam. is roughly 17.6 N - 76.5 W
Port-au-Prince is roughly 18.3 N - 72.2 W
Does anyone seeing Port-au-Prince and Haiti taking more of a direct hit?
It looks like the province of Grand'Anse, Sud and towns of Port-Salut, Les Cayes and Les Anglais taking a severe hit.
I am trying to see what the topography is of this area. I think if it stays on a WNW path for at least the next 12 hours, it might go north of Jamaica. However, Haiti will pay more of a price then.
Here are three plots of the 12z GFDL model
1) the initialization plot 12z 18 Aug
2) the plot for 12z 19 Aug (tomorrow)
3) the plot for 06z 21 Aug
As you can see the GFDL shows Dean moving more wnw and then taking a turn more west after Jamaica. I hope the predicted location over Jamaica is wrong and that the eyewall misses you all by a fair amount.
If I've overloaded the blog - my apologies and I'll remove the images.
http://www.h2-pv.us/wiki_100mpg/img/wiki_up/20070818_1715_04LDEAN_130kts.jpg
I have no idea if Dr Masters is monitoring the Blog.
Nailing down the forecast track as close, as your asking, would be pretty difficult and would have no guarantees.
Having survived several Hurricanes myself, the best advice is to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Welcome to the Blog and stay safe.
NOTHING RAIN AND WIND
WE ARE TO 165 MILLES FROM CENTER
OF HURACANE AND THE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILLES AND WE DONT HAVE NOTHING
look at the south eyewall
Whoever said Midwest had a drought/heatwave that wasn't letting up, it's 92 instead of 107 like it was last week here in MO and there is like that wet stuff coming out of the sky sometimes? Back to my weedeating till it rains, bought an electric one, duhhhhhhh dumb dum woman, I wondered why it was so cheap.
Makes one wonder..If we've got a Cat 5. hurricane now in mid august, wonder what is in store for us during the "peak time" in september?
i dont want to know :(
Isn't that the truth? Remember Rita? It was going to the florida panhandle? Then it was into Mexico? Then into Corpus? Then into Houston? Where did it hit? Right here! In Southwest Louisiana. We had 2 to 3 days to get out of her way. So everyone on the Gulf Coast should be prepared for Dean.
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