Extremely dangerous Dean heads for Jamaica
Hurricane Dean put on an impressive round of rapid intensification last night, deepening 49 millibars in just 24 hours. Dean is now a major Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. Reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Dean has likely peaked in intensity, and may be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye has shrunk from 20 miles in diameter yesterday down to 13 miles in diameter this morning. This inner eyewall will probably shrink even more and collapse sometime in the next day, to be replaced by a new outer eyewall 30-40 miles in diameter. Dean's winds may decrease to the lower end of the Category 4 scale, 135-140 mph, if that occurs. The inner eyewall and the new outer eyewall that is forming can be seen on a microwave satellite image from this morning (Figure 1). The 11:02am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters said that the southern portion of the inner eyewall was missing, so the eyewall is probably collapsing now.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Hurricane Dean at 7:31am EDT Saturday August 18. Two small partial rings of strong echoes, marking the boundaries of concentric inner and outer eyewalls, are visible. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.
Dean pounded Martinique, St. Lucia, and Dominica yesterday, and the storm's death toll now stands at three. A 62-year old man died on St. Lucia while trying to save his cow from raging flood waters, and a rain-triggered landslide killed a mother and child in their home in Dominica. Martinique suffered the worst damage, with 100% of the banana crop destroyed, 70% of the sugar cane crop gone, and considerable damage to buildings on the south end of the island. Lesser damage occurred on Dominica and St.Lucia, and overall, it appears that the Lesser Antilles islands were fortunate to get off so lightly.
Puerto Rico
Dean's eye is visible on long range radar out of Puerto Rico. A major spiral band of rain moved over Puerto Rico at about 11am EDT, and will bring up to four inches of rain to the island today. Radar estimated rainfall from the Puerto Rico radar shows up to two inches had fallen as of 1pm EDT. The wind/pressure plot from Buoy 42059 south of Puerto Rico shows that Dean passed just north of that location this morning, bringing wind gusts to 66 knots.
Dominican Republic
The tourist town of Punta Cana on the east tip of the island reported sustained winds of 34 mph, gusting to 46 mph this morning. The capital city of Santo Domingo can expect sustained winds of 40-45 mph today as Dean makes its closest pass to the south. Heavy rains of 1-3 inches in non-mountainous area will create some minor flooding problems in these areas. Mountainous area along the south coast of the Dominican Republic, particularly in the rugged Barahona Peninsula that juts farthest south into the Caribbean, will receive higher rain amounts and are at great risk of life-threatening flash floods.
Haiti
Dean will make a very close passage to the south of Haiti's mountainous southern Peninsula, and the capital city of Port-au-Prince could experience winds just below hurricane force. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane passing so close to Haiti is a serious threat. Deforestation has denuded the mountainsides of protective tree cover, and flood waters will wash down the mountains into populated areas. The only saving grace in this situation may be the relatively rapid forward speed of Dean, which will reduce the amount of rain that will fall, compared to other hurricanes that have affected Haiti.
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Jamaica is my greatest concern. A direct hit by Dean would make it the worst hurricane strike on Jamaica for over a century. Jamaica has not received a direct hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane since perhaps 1832. The worst strikes of the 20th century were Category 3 Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Category 2 Hurricane Charlie of 1951. The Cayman Islands also have much to fear from Dean. Dean could rival Ivan as the Cayman's worst hurricane strike of the past century.
Cuba
Mountainous regions in Cuba area also at risk of dangerous flash flooding from Dean. However, civil defense is so good in Cuba that I don't expect any loss of life. Portions of south Cuba will experience sustained tropical force winds.
Mexico
The models have come into much better agreement this morning on the longer term forecast, and it looks very bad for Cancun and Cozumel. Dean will give those resort areas a pounding like they received from Hurricane Emily (Category 4) in 2005, and Hurricane Gilbert (Category 5) in 1988. Dean will probably not be as bad as Wilma (Category 4) in 2005, since Wilma stalled out over Cancun for three days as a major hurricane. Dean is moving quickly, and will not linger long over any of the regions it strikes.
Texas and Louisiana
Things are looking much brighter for Louisiana, as the GFDL model has come in line with all of the other models in predicting a landfall in Southern Texas or Northern Mexico. It now appears likely that Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will knock Dean down a category or two before it can approach the Texas coast. The upper level low that was forecast by the GFDL to potentially steer Dean northwards appears to be weakening and moving westwards, out of the way of Dean. You can watch this upper level low on water vapor satellite loops. It is the counter-clockwise spinning region that has moved west off the Florida coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this low continues to weaken and move westwards, it will not be able to swing Dean northwestwards towards northeast Texas and Louisiana. If Dean does manage to catch up to the upper level low, the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low will bring some south-to-north winds over Dean that would steer it on a more northerly track into the Gulf of Mexico.
The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight and Sunday morning, so we should have some excellent model runs available Sunday morning and afternoon.
I'll have a short update tonight by 9pm, and a full update Sunday morning by noon. Tonight's update will focus on Jamaica, and I'll post the relevant radar and current condition links to follow the storm's path. I'll talk about Typhoon Sepat, as well.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index
I have this weird idea the wobble WSW may be part of a shift to more true NW. It still may go north of Jamaica or cross SE to NW.
Or I've completely lost my mind and need a nap.
Any of these are possible, lol.
GOES east WV Loop
Link
Does anyone think Dean will track east of Texas?
Exceedingly unlikely.
WU's graphics say 918
918.7mb
That's what I'm talkin' about.
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 07
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 07
Time: 0000Z
Latitude: 16°N
Longitude: 70.9°W
#NAME?
Surface: 923 mb; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 71°F; NE (45°) @ 121 mph
1000mb height: Unavailable
925mb height: Unavailable
850mb height: 2388 ft; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 74°F; E (85°) @ 114 mph
700mb height: 11198 ft; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 59°F; E (100°) @ 30 mph
500mb height: Unavailable
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
EYEWALL 045 SPL 1603N07095W 2339 MBL WND 06129 AEV 00000 =
923mb winds: NE (45°) @ 121 mph
908mb winds: NE (50°) @ 165 mph
902mb winds: NE (55°) @ 156 mph
898mb winds: NE (55°) @ 152 mph
893mb winds: NE (55°) @ 157 mph
889mb winds: ENE (65°) @ 149 mph
882mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 156 mph
878mb winds: ENE (70°) @ 147 mph
873mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 146 mph
867mb winds: E (80°) @ 123 mph
854mb winds: E (85°) @ 122 mph
850mb winds: E (85°) @ 114 mph
787mb winds: E (95°) @ 118 mph
697mb winds: E (100°) @ 26 mph
#VALUE!
The ULL and Ridge presently in place and the possible trof coming are the question marks for the models.
My concern here is that people from N Texas up around to Mobile are basically blowing this off.
While the probabilities favor the NHC's general solution, I am not yet completely sold.
With the general premise that Hurricanes move towards the weakest atmospheric feature, a fracture in that ridge or worse, a trough that displaces it (if it gets here in time) could be really ugly. Now add the ULL into that and things potentially get even worse.
The GFDL has been all over the place with this storm, as recently as 18 hours ago was looking directly at this potential, aiming at the middle of Lousiana! Now its gone to mexico. This sort of wild fluctuation tells me that the models have a SEVERE problem at present getting a handle on the interaction of these features.
A couple of the models actually call for a slight turn in the very near future to true west and a little south...maybe. Those are the ones that send Dean into Tampico.
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.
Dean is moving WSW. The GFS and CMC looks like they were right all along. Who knew the GFDL and HWRF could be so completely wrong. Jamaica might be spared afterall if Dean keeps jogging Westward. Bad news for the Yucatan.
This is also premature...how many times have these models swung back and forth? Many, many times. I think they are having a HUGE problem getting a handle on anything more than a day or two out.
and
That is flying pretty dang low! What 1000ft?
Storm #04 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #04: 07
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 18, 2007 23:37:50 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 16 ° 01 ' N 070 ° 53 ' W (16.02° N 70.88° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2382 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 102 Knots (117.3 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 005 Nautical Miles (5.75 miles) From Center At Bearing 011°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 118 Knots (135.7 MPH) From 105°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 006 Nautical Miles (6.9 Miles) From Center At Bearing 013°
Minimum Pressure: extrap 920 Millibars (27.166 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 15°C (59°F) / 3047 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 16°C (60.8°F) / 3024 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 15°C (59°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: CO
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 118 KT N Quadrant at 23:36:00 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
3: MET ACCURACY 1NM
I think I can see that in the last frame of the IR loop, but probably wouldn't have without the power of suggestion.
WNW means Jamaica, Cayman an Mexico
I'm loving it!
"My concern here is that people from N Texas up around to Mobile are basically blowing this off."
NOT A CHANCE HERE!
after Ivan, NO WAY,
all I know if it stays CAT 4 or 5, it won't matter if I am in appilachicola , P cola , Mobile, or NOLA, it's gonna be BIG enough to get us all!
Viewing: 1551 - 1601
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 — Blog Index